Brian Craig 🇺🇸

I just spoke to @VDHanson about what the midterm results mean for Trump, the Republican Party, MAGA, and 2028. Here’s what he told me: The Republican losses were predictable. Since 1900 the White House party has lost House seats in ~90% of midterms (Senate in ~75%). The size of this wave (dozens in House, 7-9 Senate) is the real outlier. Trump has roughly 70 days to lock in judges, cabinet picks, and nominees before the new Congress arrives. With a ~45-seat Republican Senate, Trump will have to keep all Republicans in line or face a “veto-proof” Democratic Congress. Trump can and will act unilaterally on foreign policy and executive orders. Historical precedent is clear. “The imperial presidency operates as they wish,” Hanson says. The “affordability” story was heavily media-driven. Inflation is roughly one-third of 2022’s 9.1%. Family income is up ~$14k, GDP is stronger, stocks are +20k, poverty is down. The real issue is the 21% cumulative price jump he inherited—and the administration never clearly explained how slower inflation + higher incomes fixes it. Trump never explained in full why the Iran campaign was necessary. The first 38 days were a historic success; stopping short and endless talk of negotiations let Iran claim they stopped him. The messaging, not the campaign itself, was the biggest problem. Unlike this Congress, the new Democratic majority will have iron party discipline. That contrast will matter. 2028 starts now. The Vance-Rubio pairing will face immediate pressure—many will want Rubio at the top of the ticket, but Vance can’t run as VP again. Democrats will jump in fast. Their nominee will almost certainly come from the left of the party. The Republican path to recovery, Hanson argues, runs through results, not rhetoric. A strong economy in 2026-27, a finished Iran campaign, and visible progress on affordability give the next nominee a real chance. Without those, the structural advantages of the new Democratic Congress become decisive.