Jeff Burkey (@Brrrkey)

@BrrrkeyJun 25

Incredibly grateful to be back in builder mode with one of the smartest teams in the space.

@AdjacentMarketsJun 25

We are excited to announce we have raised a pre-seed from @carterkev at Night Capital, @vaneck_us, @eightyhi and @nostroah at @ufo_holdings, @Maven11Capital and @DCGco to build an independent index business for event contracts and prediction markets. adjacent.markets

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Jeff Burkey · Nov 11, 2026 · 11:16 PM UTC

@Brrrkey36m

Meanwhile $NVDA reports earnings on Tuesday. Might be time to YOLO some call options

@AdjacentMarkets41m

Jensen out by year end odds jumped after a New York Times report that five people who worked at Nvidia said Huang had a second extramarital relationship, this time with a senior executive. Mid 64.5% on @Polymarket and mid 68.5% on @Kalshi before Jan 1, 2027, as of 5:45 PM ET.

Line chart of Jensen Huang year-end leave odds on Polymarket and Kalshi from Nov 8 to Nov 11, 2026, with news markers. As of 5:45 PM ET, mid 64.5% on Polymarket by Dec 31 and mid 68.5% on Kalshi before Jan 1, 2027.

ALT Line chart of Jensen Huang year-end leave odds on Polymarket and Kalshi from Nov 8 to Nov 11, 2026, with news markers. As of 5:45 PM ET, mid 64.5% on Polymarket by Dec 31 and mid 68.5% on Kalshi before Jan 1, 2027.

lucas · Nov 11, 2026 · 9:36 PM UTC

Jeff Burkey retweeted

lucas

@0xperp2h

come over to @Vistadex and try some claim/index markets!

Ryan Chern

@ryanchern2h

.@0xperp has designed some of the most thoughtful indices across economics, politics, and AI. Their new AI Capability Efficiency Index measures the price-return level of AI capability and compute affordability based on event contracts. Bet against either of us:

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Gloom Terminal · Nov 11, 2026 · 8:46 PM UTC

Jeff Burkey retweeted

Gloom Terminal

@gloom_sh3h

you can now chart an NBA team like a stock prediction market indices from @AdjacentMarkets are live in gloom. type ADJ

@AdjacentMarkets4h

Adjacent data is now live on @gloom_sh. ADJ <ENTER> loads prediction market indices, rates, and CFTC filings via Adjacent. gloom.sh

ALT Gloom Adjacent Rates tab showing live prediction-market rates and a price chart

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Jeff Burkey · Nov 11, 2026 · 7:52 PM UTC

👀

Adjacent data is now live on @gloom_sh. ADJ <ENTER> loads prediction market indices, rates, and CFTC filings via Adjacent. gloom.sh

ALT Gloom Adjacent Rates tab showing live prediction-market rates and a price chart

Jeff Burkey · Nov 11, 2026 · 5:40 PM UTC

@Brrrkey6h

$NVDA earnings next week…big

@AdjacentMarkets6h

Year end S&P odds are split between today's range and a close near the October high: 7,600 to 7,799.99 mid 23.5% 7,800 to 7,999.99 mid 23.5% The S&P 500 was at 7,618.87 as of 11:50 AM ET.

Bar chart of Kalshi mid odds for the S&P 500 close on December 31, 2026. The 7,600 to 7,799.99 and 7,800 to 7,999.99 buckets are tied at 23.5 percent. The S&P 500 was at 7,618.87 as of 11:50 AM ET, with an October high of 7,844.52.

ALT Bar chart of Kalshi mid odds for the S&P 500 close on December 31, 2026. The 7,600 to 7,799.99 and 7,800 to 7,999.99 buckets are tied at 23.5 percent. The S&P 500 was at 7,618.87 as of 11:50 AM ET, with an October high of 7,844.52.

Andrew Peek · Nov 11, 2026 · 2:59 PM UTC

Jeff Burkey retweeted

Andrew Peek

@drupeek8h

My @VanityFair age is upon me.

Tilt.now

@tilthq9h

Tilt CEO @drupeek was quoted in Vanity Fair on the risks facing Silicon Valley after the midterms. His warning: Political conditions aren't permanent. Investment strategies shouldn't assume they are. It's why we built the Tilt Midterms Machine. linkedin.com/pulse/vanity-fa…

Vanity Fair Quotes Tilt CEO Andrew Peek on the Hidden Risk Facing Silicon Valley Investors

As Vanity Fair Quotes Tilt CEO Andrew Peek, One Message Is Clear: The Biggest Investment Risk May Be Assuming the Future Won't Change Following the 2026 midterm elections, Vanity Fair turned to Tilt...

linkedin.com

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Jeff Burkey · Nov 11, 2026 · 4:06 PM UTC

💵 getting expensive

A 25 bps hike is now the leading January Fed outcome: mid 52.0% on Kalshi, up from 27.0% before the October CPI print, with a hold at mid 46.5%. Meeting is Jan 27, 2027.

Line chart of Kalshi mids for the January 27, 2027 FOMC meeting. A 25 bps hike is the leading outcome at mid 52.0%, ahead of a hold at mid 46.5%, after the October CPI print. As of 9:25 AM ET November 11.

ALT Line chart of Kalshi mids for the January 27, 2027 FOMC meeting. A 25 bps hike is the leading outcome at mid 52.0%, ahead of a hold at mid 46.5%, after the October CPI print. As of 9:25 AM ET November 11.

Adjacent News · Nov 11, 2026 · 2:11 PM UTC

Jeff Burkey retweeted

Adjacent News

@AdjacentNews9h

11.11.2026 — Effectively Over?

Article · @AdjacentNews

Jeff Burkey · Nov 10, 2026 · 8:37 PM UTC

🚀

@AdjacentMarketsNov 10

SpaceX launch odds rebound overnight. The SpaceX Launch Count Index SPCXLCH is at 794.1, up 29.4% from 613.6 yesterday. The 2026 contract on more than 140 @SpaceX launches is at a 76.5% mid, up from 69.0% a day earlier.

ALT Line chart of the SPCXLCH SpaceX launch count index, hourly from Oct 23 to Nov 10 2026, falling from 1,000 to a low near 536 then rebounding to 794.1.

Jeff Burkey · Nov 10, 2026 · 4:11 PM UTC

Wonder when Anthropic will 'announce' their IPO?

Jeff Burkey · Nov 10, 2026 · 3:55 PM UTC

👀

@AdjacentMarketsNov 10

CPI comes in hot, odds of a 25+ bps hike more than double: hike of more than 25 bps mid 11.5%, up from 4.5% before the 8:30 AM ET print, on @Kalshi. October CPI rose 0.4% per BLS.

Line chart of Kalshi mids for the December 9 Fed decision after October CPI. Title: CPI comes in hot, odds of a 25+ bps hike more than double. Hike of more than 25 bps is 11.5%, up from 4.5% before the 8:30 AM ET print. A 25 bps hike is 84.5% and hold is 3.5%. As of 9:45 AM ET.

ALT Line chart of Kalshi mids for the December 9 Fed decision after October CPI. Title: CPI comes in hot, odds of a 25+ bps hike more than double. Hike of more than 25 bps is 11.5%, up from 4.5% before the 8:30 AM ET print. A 25 bps hike is 84.5% and hold is 3.5%. As of 9:45 AM ET.

Omar · Nov 9, 2026 · 5:59 PM UTC

Jeff Burkey retweeted

Omar

@Ommiii_Nov 9

Live prediction-market indices went from 12 to 106 in Q3, mostly NFL team indices from @AdjacentMarkets and @TemaETFs (both differ)

Live prediction-market indices from Adjacent rose from 12 in June to 106 by 30 September, mostly NFL team indices. Right: 24 event-contract ETFs waiting on the SEC, Adjacent's pre-seed, XOVR's $30M into Kalshi, and DICE launching 8 Sep.

ALT Live prediction-market indices from Adjacent rose from 12 in June to 106 by 30 September, mostly NFL team indices. Right: 24 event-contract ETFs waiting on the SEC, Adjacent's pre-seed, XOVR's $30M into Kalshi, and DICE launching 8 Sep.

Jeff Burkey · Nov 10, 2026 · 2:22 PM UTC

Bullish on newspapers

Frank Chaparro

@fintechfrankNov 10

Zcash is getting the full-page treatment in today’s Wall Street Journal. Grayscale has taken out a front-page ad promoting Zcash, along with another full-page ad inside highlighting its Zcash investment fund (ZCSH).

Image from Frank Chaparro (@fintechfrank)

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Jeff Burkey · Nov 10, 2026 · 12:49 PM UTC

25 bps + catching a bid into CPI print:

@AdjacentMarketsNov 10

The Misery Implied Index closed Monday at 7.97, its lowest in 30 days, down from 8.11 a week ago. Markets now imply November CPI at 3.77% YoY, down from 3.85%, with U-3 steady at 4.19%. October CPI out today at 8:30 AM ET.

Line chart of the Misery Implied Index, hourly from Oct 10 to Nov 9 2026, peaking at 8.25 in late October and falling to 7.97, its low for the period. Source: Adjacent.

ALT Line chart of the Misery Implied Index, hourly from Oct 10 to Nov 9 2026, peaking at 8.25 in late October and falling to 7.97, its low for the period. Source: Adjacent.

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Jeff Burkey · Nov 10, 2026 · 1:00 PM UTC

xitter.gq/conorsen/status/212009…

Conor Sen

@conorsenNov 10

The continued feud between Waller and Warsh is so funny. Waller going out of his way to give very specific forward guidance here:

Jeff Burkey · Nov 10, 2026 · 3:36 AM UTC

bitcoin:native

[ADJ] FORECASTEX CERTIFICATION "BITCOIN PRICE FORECAST CONTRACT." cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…

Industry Filings: Designated Contract Market Products Filing

cftc.gov

Jeff Burkey · Nov 9, 2026 · 10:03 PM UTC

@BrrrkeyNov 9

I must be reading the rules wrong: Resolves Yes if Anthropic confirms an IPO before Dec 1, 2026.Outcome verified from the New York Times, ABC, Bloomberg and 5 others. An IPO is confirmed if: 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Dec 1, 2026.

@AdjacentMarketsNov 9

What traders expect for an Anthropic IPO: before Nov 16 mid 2.5%, before Dec 1 mid 94.0%, before Jan 1 mid 96.5%

Line chart of Kalshi hourly mids for Anthropic IPO date rungs. Before Nov 16 ends at 2.5%, before Dec 1 at 94.0%, before Jan 1 at 96.5%. S-1 filed Oct 26 and S-1/A Nov 2 labeled at top of plot.

ALT Line chart of Kalshi hourly mids for Anthropic IPO date rungs. Before Nov 16 ends at 2.5%, before Dec 1 at 94.0%, before Jan 1 at 96.5%. S-1 filed Oct 26 and S-1/A Nov 2 labeled at top of plot.

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Jeff Burkey · Nov 9, 2026 · 7:42 PM UTC

@BrrrkeyNov 9

“In the meantime, all I think I know is this: Polls inform models, models inform trades, strawberry jam over grape jelly for the sandwich.” -@jeffedelstein

InGame

@InGameHQNov 9

Last week’s fevered discussion about polls and models vs. prediction markets in the wake of the midterms is the most idiotic fevered discussion between normally smart people that @jeffedelstein has ever seen or heard. When you have one side claiming the polls and the models were the clear winners, and another side saying the prediction markets were the clear winners, maybe that means both sides are missing a bigger truth.

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Jeff Burkey · Nov 9, 2026 · 7:44 PM UTC