China sells to you: "We are too reliant on chinese goods, we need to start being producers again"
You sell to China: "National security risk, tell your company goodbye"
Which way western man
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Buhlaque retweeted
oh god oh fuck
This slide from the Anthropic IPO roadshow was a big factor in my decision to leave. It’s an insane plot and I’m surprised they made it public.
It shows the compute efficiency of pretraining over time. The y-axis is a **log scale**: they are seeing continued superexponential algorithmic progress.
Mythos was not a one-time deviation, but a point on a superexponential. They could already retrain Mythos with a fraction of the compute originally needed.
It doesn’t strictly imply a software-only intelligence explosion- they have been spending more on R+D. But algorithmic improvements do not require ridiculous creative genius and are on the verge of being automated. You do the math.
Buhlaque retweeted
BREAKING: Workday, used by millions of employees to check pay and request time off, is experiencing a widespread outage.
Unless it's your server, it's not your data :)
Uber is notifying users that their personal information was exposed in a breach involving one of the company’s service providers. wsj.com/tech/uber-says-perso…
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Buhlaque retweeted
Apparently Jensen was such a narcissistic asshole he liked visiting small restaurants and leave generous tips without making a show out of it
Absolutely disgusting and despicable behavior by him, thank god the @nytimes reported this scandal
You don't hate journalists enough
Buhlaque retweeted
standwithjensen.com/
Please sign
Read the Stand with Jensen letter and consider adding your name. #standwithjensen standwithjensen.com/
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Dario going to make a blog article in 2 weeks about how all of this FAA bullshit could have been prevented if we listened to his safety concern about our smart fridges being hosts for rogue AI agents to self-replicate
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Just a normal software update bros
First software update ever, turns out we need to have safety rails on our software updates for mission critical systems hehehe
Sorry guise, nothing to see here!
JUST IN - A "network update" reportedly crashed a private system operated by defense contractor L3Harris, taking down U.S. air traffic control communications that caused the nationwide FAA ground stop.
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Great article.
RSI is not “ruled out” per se, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely, especially given the current funding environment we have now.
Are we in an intelligence explosion? This is one of the most important questions facing society right now. @lugaricano and I tried to put structure on this question and provide estimates based on currently available data.
METR recently reported that frontier capability growth roughly doubled after October 2025---but this is accompanied by annualized R&D spending growth of ~6x and technical staff ~3x over the same window. That highlights a crucial distinction between scaling laws--exponential capability gains bought with exponentially rising inputs--and an intelligence explosion (IE), where AI begins substituting for external inputs so each advance makes the next one easier.
We estimate several versions of a research production function (building on @ChadJonesEcon, @bfjo, and @Ph_Aghion) where a key parameter crossing a threshold signals an IE, while values below it correspond to an "ideas are harder to find," diminishing-returns world. Across specifications, our estimates sit below that threshold. Allowing for a break at METR's October 2025 cutoff points to a one-time step up in research effectiveness, with the rate of diminishing returns being nearly identical on both sides of the cutoff.
A few things to note. First, this exercise is not a forecast. It's an attempt to put structure on some of the important questions being debated right now: RSI, IE, scaling laws all depend on how outputs scale with inputs, and how feedback loops accelerate/decelerate this process. These estimates can change, and change very quickly.
Second, we are very explicit that the results are based on publicly available data; it is very much possible that METR had access to data that would change the estimates.
Third, we might be wrong! Let us know what you think:
aleximas.substack.com/p/are-…
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Buhlaque retweeted
"We find that (as in Bloom et al.[1]) ideas are getting harder to find in AI research. In other words, progress would have slowed down if research inputs had been held constant. Progress sped up because inputs grew fast enough to overcome the increasing difficulty of making progress."
Are we in an intelligence explosion? This is one of the most important questions facing society right now. @lugaricano and I tried to put structure on this question and provide estimates based on currently available data.
METR recently reported that frontier capability growth roughly doubled after October 2025---but this is accompanied by annualized R&D spending growth of ~6x and technical staff ~3x over the same window. That highlights a crucial distinction between scaling laws--exponential capability gains bought with exponentially rising inputs--and an intelligence explosion (IE), where AI begins substituting for external inputs so each advance makes the next one easier.
We estimate several versions of a research production function (building on @ChadJonesEcon, @bfjo, and @Ph_Aghion) where a key parameter crossing a threshold signals an IE, while values below it correspond to an "ideas are harder to find," diminishing-returns world. Across specifications, our estimates sit below that threshold. Allowing for a break at METR's October 2025 cutoff points to a one-time step up in research effectiveness, with the rate of diminishing returns being nearly identical on both sides of the cutoff.
A few things to note. First, this exercise is not a forecast. It's an attempt to put structure on some of the important questions being debated right now: RSI, IE, scaling laws all depend on how outputs scale with inputs, and how feedback loops accelerate/decelerate this process. These estimates can change, and change very quickly.
Second, we are very explicit that the results are based on publicly available data; it is very much possible that METR had access to data that would change the estimates.
Third, we might be wrong! Let us know what you think:
aleximas.substack.com/p/are-…
Buhlaque retweeted
gonna guess there high probability that the FAA grounding all flights in the US is related to an $875m AI tool it built called SMART that will “assist in managing air traffic across the entire national air system” that the administration started rolling out….yesteday
BREAKING: FAA orders ground stop at all U.S. airports “due to extraordinary circumstances and for reasons of safety.” nbcnews.com/news/us-news/faa…
