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Joined November 2025
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BullBear Alpha retweeted
this might be my last normal tweet before biotech goes vertical
i'm not a whistleblower. I don't work at Lilly, Novo or any of the big labs
but there is a massive shift happening in human biology right now.
it's sitting in press releases and almost nobody reads them
the last 6 months alone:
- a once-daily pill roughly doubled median survival in metastatic pancreatic cancer (13.2 vs 6.6 months)
- a one-time gene editing infusion cut hereditary angioedema attacks 87%, and 62% of patients stayed attack-free and off all other prevention for 6 months
- a one-time gene edit for cholesterol dropped LDL up to 62%, and it held for over a year
- a personalized mrna vaccine beat keytruda alone in a 1,137 patient melanoma phase 3
- retatrutide hit ~28% weight loss in a phase 3
- an ai-designed drug entered phase 3
- a pill that regrows hair passed its second phase 3
- an immunotherapy that could let some rectal cancer patients skip surgery, chemo and radiation just got fda approved
- a man lived 271 days off dialysis on a pig kidney
- human cells were caught passing chromosome-sized chunks of DNA to their neighbors, and it changes how the neighbors behave
we are on the verge of an era where the human body is a software problem and the update cycle gets shorter everyday
stick around, it's going to get weird
bio/acc
BullBear Alpha retweeted
The strongest economic case against today’s Fed rate hike is simple because you cannot solve an oil supply shock with interest rates.
The Fed just raised rates 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% while a significant portion of the inflation problem is being driven by energy and other supply-side pressures.
Raising the Fed Funds rate does not produce another barrel of oil, it does not repair disrupted supply chains and it does not increase refining capacity.
What it DOES do is increase the cost of capital throughout the economy. Consumers carrying credit card balances, auto loans and other variable rate debt will now face additional pressure.
Businesses that need to refinance debt face higher borrowing costs which can compress margins and potentially lead to reduced investment or hiring.
The federal government itself must continuously refinance trillions of dollars of debt. Keeping short-term rates higher increases the cost of financing that debt as securities mature and are refinanced.
This is the fundamental problem:
If inflation is being generated primarily by excess demand then tighter monetary policy can attack the source of the problem but if inflation is being generated by an external supply shock particularly energy then higher rates attack demand without fixing supply.
This risks creating the worst combination possible:
Higher energy costs
Higher borrowing costs
Higher government interest expense
Higher corporate financing costs
Weaker household purchasing power
The cure can become another part of the disease.
The Fed absolutely has an obligation to maintain price stability but monetary policy needs to distinguish between demand driven inflation and supply driven inflation.
You cannot hike your way into millions of additional barrels of oil and making capital more expensive across the entire U.S. economy will not solve an energy shortage.
@SecScottBessent @realDonaldTrump what is the next move? I am now concerned that the @federalreserve pushes the US into a recession in 2027.
BullBear Alpha retweeted
Sam Altman (CEO of Open AI):
"You no longer need to write prompts, if you use GPT-6 Astra”
In just 1 hour, he explains how to use GPT-6 Astra at a level that most people can't even imagine.
After watching it, I realized I was only taking advantage of about 15% of what this tool can really do.
Watch it and then read the guide l leave below on how to use it at it's fullest 👇🏼
BullBear Alpha retweeted
Scott Bessent helped George Soros make roughly $3.5 billion on the Abenomics trade from 2012 to 2015 - but says the real edge in macro investing is much simpler: “we study history, we observe the present, and try to imagine the future”
this is him explaining why macro isn’t really about predicting every economic number. Bessent looks for regime changes, policy mistakes and situations where the market is pricing one outcome while the range of possible outcomes is much wider
Bessent says he doesn’t even use a Bloomberg terminal and instead looks through around 270 charts every night - searching for anomalies, things that are changing, or something in the market that simply looks unsustainable
full interview below
Paul Singer lost 88% of $50,000 of his parents money in the 1974 bear market after buying speculative stocks on margin - an experience that shaped how he would run Elliott for decades: “my desire never to lose money again”
this is him explaining why avoiding big losses matters more than just protecting the capital itself. Singer says once investors suffer serious drawdowns, their judgment starts to break down - while keeping both your capital and your head intact leaves you able to buy when everything gets cheap
Singer says Elliott therefore never built its strategy around beating a benchmark. the goal was to stay risk-averse, avoid large permanent losses and preserve enough capital to take advantage of moments like the final weeks of 2008 when opportunities suddenly appeared everywhere
bookmark & watch the full conversation then read the article
BullBear Alpha retweeted
Scott Bessent (2023) says working with Stan Druckenmiller was like playing with Michael Jordan
"There's something called superstar syndrome, that Michael Jordan probably couldn't teach us how to play basketball. Roger Federer is probably not the greatest tennis coach."
“I'm not sure if Stan could explain why he always does what he does, but being able to sit next to him and watch him and have the dialogue with him, he’s just incredible.”
“He’s a great trader. The combination of George Soros and Jim Rogers was incredible because of Jim's analytics and then George's trading instincts. Stan is that in one person."
“His risk management, it’s incredible. He's never had a down year. It's humbling. The bad part about sitting next to him is you think ‘I'm not good enough.’”
“I'm a basketball fan. If I look at the Chicago Bulls, Scottie Pippen, Horace Grant, they were all better for playing with Michael Jordan.”
BullBear Alpha retweeted
$AMD deep dive on the Taalas acquisition. 👏🏻👀
BullBear Alpha retweeted
YUP!
SemiAnalysis: "For all intents and purposes, we believe DeepMind is no longer a frontier lab."
"due to large numbers of departures from their reinforcement learning teams and poor compute allocation. Google will continue meandering on and releasing models, but their odds of reaching SOTA again have dropped to zero."
"Google is now simply unable to retain top AI talent."
"Obviously these are not the actions of people excited about Gemini 4 Pro."
"Jeff, Sanjay, Quoc, and Oriol are just the latest in a long string of high profile departures from DeepMind."
"Jeff [Dean] is the undisputed GOAT of Google engineering, co-founded Google Brain, and started the TPU program."
"Google, on the other hand, decided it was totally worth it to sell enormous amounts of compute to Gemini’s fiercest competitors on long term contracts without any hope of ever returning it to DeepMind."
"More than 20% of total TPU shipments from 3Q26 to 4Q27 are being sold directly to Anthropic."
"The issue with Google was not Jeff Dean nor Noam Shazeer, but rather their extremely bureaucratic, painfully slow, and strategically timid culture."
"Google will join the ranks of other legendary tech giants like IBM and Intel to give up on the harder thing and do the thing that will make you more money."
"it becomes demoralizing as many of the great technology leads have left."
BullBear Alpha retweeted
My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI.
We discuss:
- Kimi, distillation, and open source
- OpenAI's compute bets
- The Hugging Face incident
- What happens after AGI
- Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence
- And much more
Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
4:10 The Race for Compute
14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident
16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI
23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs
29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI
35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next
44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI
51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons
BullBear Alpha retweeted
Munger: "I don’t go to meetings. Warren doesn’t go to meetings. Put that in your article: There’s practically no meetings in the whole Berkshire culture. There are a few telephone calls and no meetings. I don’t care if you print this. Warren gets a headache if he’s in a big meeting where a lot of other people are saying dumb things. He gets a sick headache. He’s not feigning it. He actually does."
(WSJ - "Charlie Munger, Unplugged" - 2019 wsj.com/articles/charlie-mun…)
BullBear Alpha retweeted
My first interview with @sama, Co-Founder of @OpenAI.
0:04 How to start a startup
3:30 Trusting exponentials
4:57 Operating in chaotic environments
6:12 Learning to enjoy painful experiences
8:03 Creating abundant intelligence
11:15 Keeping core suppliers on OpenAI’s timelines
12:10 Invention of the joint-stock company
15:30 The best CEOs aren’t sociopaths
16:46 We are in the singularity
18:09 AI authoritarianism vs liberty
19:24 Texting 300-400 people a day
20:32 Having a small number of deep beliefs about the future
21:41 Critical path
22:25 Thinking about what’s next
23:38 Getting on planes in marginal situations
28:16 Buying lots of compute
30:51 Ambition
34:00 Google shouldn’t have let OpenAI survive
37:54 Having his life shot through a cannon after the launch of ChatGPT
41:20 The growth of Codex
42:02 The Death Star tweet
44:46 Status games and desire to be useful
47:57 Not being ambitious enough on compute investments
50:26 Execution
51:45 Ask for what you want
54:11 First few weeks of OpenAI
55:15 Shutting down Sora to focus on Codex
57:44 Designing beautiful products
59:01 Getting addicted to TikTok
1:01:03 Inventing a new device
1:02:53 Try to get better at your strengths
1:05:57 Masa is an n of 1
1:07:11 Real trends vs fake trends
BullBear Alpha retweeted
🔥NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang: "The AI bubble will come SOMEDAY. It’s just not today.”
“It’s very unlikely in the next five years.”
“It depends on how fast we can build.”
"The challenge is that the rate at which we can build the infrastructure is limited by physical things."
"The industry could build faster, but we don't have enough chips, memory, and data centers."
Markets are not moved by opinions alone, they are moved by incentives.
When influential voices warn that stocks are "too expensive," ask a simple question: Who benefits if investors become fearful?
The greatest fortunes on Wall Street have rarely been built by buying optimism. They have been built by buying when others are too frightened to act.
Don't judge by headlines. Judge by capital allocation.
Watch what they do, not what they say.
BullBear Alpha retweeted
Li Lu sharing some investing wisdom Munget taught him:
"Munger's fifth point is that investing is like fishing: you have to fish where the fish are. The two rules of fishing are: Rule number one, fish where the fish are. Rule number two, never forget rule number one."
"You don't need to understand the entire macro economy, nor do you need to figure out all 100,000 lakes in Minnesota... You just need to know your own small pond, which pond has the fish you can catch... The best scenario is that you're the only one fishing there, and nobody else even knows about it. That guarantees you'll catch the most fish."
Alpha is generated by avoiding efficient arenas entirely and building a monopolistic understanding of a niche where mispricing is guaranteed.
BullBear Alpha retweeted
Warren Buffett is 95, worth around $150 BILLION, and just gave one of his final interviews as the face of the company he turned from a failing textile mill into a $1 TRILLION empire.
- he explains why he just cut off his own "lifetime" donations
59-min of the greatest investor who ever lived, in his own words, near the very end
bookmark & watch - you will not get many more of these
Everyone knows StubHub tickets are absurdly overpriced. Almost nobody knows why: the CEO himself runs a hedge fund that bulk-buys the tickets, marks them up, and dumps them back on StubHub.
- and StubHub gives his fund discounted fees to do it
7-min on how the man who built the marketplace is the one gouging you on it
bookmark - the stock fell 21% the moment this got exposed
BullBear Alpha retweeted
🔥WARREN BUFFETT: WALL STREET MAKES MORE MONEY FROM GAMBLERS THAN INVESTORS
The legendary investor warned that speculation is dominating today’s stock market, saying:
“Since humans love to gamble so much, there’s more money in cultivating gamblers than there is in cultivating investors.”
Buffet said, "It's tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling."
He also called government-run gambling “disgusting,” saying states profit by selling people “nothing but hope.”
BullBear Alpha retweeted
Buffett shared some of his thoughts on the market today.
"There are times when opportunities are just thrown at you so fast you can't... And then there's other times when you're very, very lucky if you find one thing in a couple of years."
Average investors feel the need to always be doing something. They force trades even when valuations are bad because they conflate activity with productivity.
"Since humans love to gamble so much, there's more money in actually cultivating gamblers than there are cultivating investors... If somebody bought Berkshire 50 years ago, a guy would have made one commission."
The modern financial ecosystem is designed to trigger your dopamine receptors and encourage over-trading. Alpha is generated by strictly ignoring the financial noise and refusing to transact frequently.
The hardest part of investing is not finding ideas.
It is holding quality when the market tests your conviction.
What Tom Lee @fundstrat and $BMNR have been doing to shareholders is absolutely shameful.
Retail investors bought into a story, Ethereum treasury, visionary leadership, long-term upside, and instead they are watching their ownership get watered down again and again through relentless share issuance and dilution.
This is how shareholder wealth gets destroyed: not overnight, but one offering, one authorization increase, one “strategic financing” at a time. Management talks about the future, but shareholders are left holding a smaller and smaller piece of the company they believed in.
It feels painfully similar to what happened with $AMC: retail shareholders carried the story, defended the company, believed the vision and then got diluted into oblivion while management kept finding new ways to issue paper.
And it also echoes the @chamath Chamath SPAC era: big narratives, big personalities, beautiful promises, and public investors left absorbing the damage while insiders and sponsors protected themselves.
At some point investors need to stop worshipping celebrity financiers and start asking the only question that matters:
Are they building value per share or are they just building a bigger machine to issue more shares?
Because if the answer is dilution, dilution, dilution… then the story is not shareholder-friendly. It is shareholder-hostile.
$BMNR shareholders deserve better than being treated like an ATM.
What a shame...
SpaceX $SPCX may be an extraordinary company, but even rockets obey gravity. I’d rather wait for its sky-high valuation to come back to Earth than buy into a ridiculous IPO price driven by hype. Great business ≠ great investment at any price.