Social Capital 8090 God is in the details.
In the Arena
Joined April 2007
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To CEOs, CFOs, CIOs and Directors:
Have you read the White House Accord on Super Intelligence? What will you do to safely deploy Super Intelligence within your Enterprise?
EY and 8090 are building a new solution - KYSI (Know Your Super Intelligence) designed to create a verifiable record of AI-enabled decisions by capturing the context and evidence, and spotlighting controls, across enterprise environments. The solution helps organizations strengthen governance while keeping pace with innovation. It does this by providing:
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Together, we are helping organizations move beyond AI experimentation toward AI they can trust, govern and scale enterprise-wide with confidence.
To learn more, reach out to your EY Partner or ping us at 8090.ai
General transmutation would be a very valuable achievement.
It’s all about clips.
I see it at Beast Industries where I’m on the board. I see it with All In where I am on the show.
I think people don’t understand that content preferences will evolve around this time constraint.
It’s already come for movies. It will come for sports next.
The first thing to change will be terms of service and blocking these agents. Not because the value is low but because the risk is high. Banks will chose self preservation and risk mitigation.
Then we will need to find a security and governance architecture that will get external auditors comfortable.
These are the practical issues of human risk tolerance in AI diffusion that model capability can’t solve.
SCOOP: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents inside customer accounts, including some attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, sources told Axios.
The findings have alarmed banking executives, who are racing to restrict access to their systems as AI moves at a velocity faster than financial institutions can respond, multiple industry and bank executives told Axios.
Several banks are now preparing for worst-case and even “day after” scenarios, including how to rapidly secure or restore customer accounts if things go wrong, the people said.
Several bank executives told Axios they're struggling to distinguish between human users and AI agents. One executive said banks also struggle to determine whether agents are authorized by customers or potentially operating without their permission, more akin to rogue agent behavior.
Read my latest for Axios here: axios.com/2026/10/22/ai-agen…
1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending.
Of that 90%, 80% of this spend are from unprofitable VC backed companies.
So, roughly, $0.70-75 of every dollar of AI spending right now comes from AI companies spending VC investment dollars.
As a result, the revenue quality in AI is currently poor. This happened in previous cycles as well, like cloud when early users of AWS were mostly venture backed startups.
The thing, though, is that before AWS could scale and pull thru GCP and others as legitimate cash machines, there were a few clearing events to sort out these brittle revenues.
This is the extrapolation of Ken’s point. We will need to transition from speculative AI spending to consistent, reliable spend that shows up in public market earnings reports.
This hasn’t happened yet because most of the breathtaking revenue growth comes from LPs investing in VC funds who then send it to startups.
Cost per thousand ads : Cost per Acquisition
Cost per Million Tokens : ???
.@chamath on the pricing shift he thinks will make the AI market explode:
“When Google invented and scaled AdWords and AdSense, the market exploded… because we went from buying 1,000 ads to just getting an outcome. Right now we buy a million tokens. We will eventually move to an outcome. And I think when that happens, this market will just go absolutely crazy.”
This tracks. I watch something on YouTube every day. Netflix is a dormant subscription for me.
YouTube has very low costs of content creation. Netflix has $14B of debt that has financed their content library.
Another lesson in the halls of mismatching assets and liabilities? Time will tell.
This will change the desirability to live and visit this city more than most people realize...
BREAKING: The number of restaurants in New York dropped ~2,000 YoY in Q1 2026, posting its largest YoY decline in at least 36 years.
This surpasses even the worst contraction recorded in any quarter during the 2020 pandemic.
The number of eating and drinking places in New York State has now declined YoY for 4 consecutive quarters, its longest streak since 2021.
This comes as restaurants are facing surging operating expenses, including insurance premiums, wages, interest rates, utilities, and health coverage, with overall costs rising faster than national averages.
Last year, employee health insurance costs jumped +12.9% for New York-area service firms, business insurance rose +7.0%, while utility costs surged +8.5%, according to the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce.
Skyrocketing costs are crushing New York restaurants.
#1 this week. Two weeks in a row.
Pod!!!
POD UP! 🚨
Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz) fills in for @friedberg!
-- CoreWeave's Tanks After Debt Selloff: Did the AI Trade Just Crack? $CRWV
-- AI Deflation and the Future of Software
-- Anthropic IPO: Red Flags, Valuation, How Much to Raise?
-- Psyop Corner with Sacks
-- Bill Gates the Doomer: What’s Behind His AI Warnings?
(0:00) Ben Horowitz fills in for Friedberg!
(2:18) CoreWeave's debt selloff: did the AI bubble just pop?
(31:14) AI's deflationary impact: decompiled software
(45:44) Anthropic's investor day gets mixed reactions
(1:03:45) Psyop Corner: Anthropic warns about self-replicating models on IoT devices
(1:22:19) Understanding Bill Gates the Doomer
Pod!!!!
POD UP! 🚨
Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz) fills in for @friedberg!
-- CoreWeave's Tanks After Debt Selloff: Did the AI Trade Just Crack? $CRWV
-- AI Deflation and the Future of Software
-- Anthropic IPO: Red Flags, Valuation, How Much to Raise?
-- Psyop Corner with Sacks
-- Bill Gates the Doomer: What’s Behind His AI Warnings?
(0:00) Ben Horowitz fills in for Friedberg!
(2:18) CoreWeave's debt selloff: did the AI bubble just pop?
(31:14) AI's deflationary impact: decompiled software
(45:44) Anthropic's investor day gets mixed reactions
(1:03:45) Psyop Corner: Anthropic warns about self-replicating models on IoT devices
(1:22:19) Understanding Bill Gates the Doomer
I suspect 70-80% of revenues at AI companies are from other AI companies who’ve raised money from the Venture industry.
This is not a circular revenue problem but it is a revenue quality problem.
We’ve seen this before in the SaaS cycle in the early/mid 2010s.
VC investors have enabled the AI industry to bastardize revenue reporting.
In the 2010s, SaaS companies popularized reporting the metric of Annual Run Rate because it was a reliable measure of long term, contractual revenues into the future. The key is that the revenues are contracted and guaranteed thru the contract life hence why forecasting it forward is appropriate.
VCs have taken this to mean Annualized Run Rate when AI is concerned and where you take transactional/API revenue from the last month (or even last week in some cases) and forecast it forward.
It’s insane that investors have enabled this to happen but it’s happened.
Chamath Palihapitiya retweeted
The future is a merchant product that makes one’s inventory available via MCP / headlessly and accepts agent payments.
I suspect shipping can be done thru fedex/ups/usps direct from merchant at similar cost when you strip out the Amazon take rate (ie merchant can spend more if needed to ship quickly).
The moat isn’t what it is anymore. That is why they are blocking.
As I stated on the pod, it’s more critical for Ant to get public and get the $200B they need than to optimize for valuation.
Find the market clearing price and go public asap.
My guess, a few weeks ago, was that this price was +/- $1T. I’m still of this mindset and haven’t changed my mind.
