Three steps to financial freedom: 1) Start small 2) Compound assets consistently 3) Win big
Belgium
Joined November 2023
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The Compounder retweeted
Just put out my full breakdown of the $HIMS Q3.
I won't sugarcoat it, it was an ugly quarter. Subs fell by 100K, gross margin went from 74% to 57%, free cash flow dropped to $26M, and the Q4 guide came in way below the Street. The stock fell about 19%.
But the subs drop makes sense once you look at the timing. Lilly just fully onboarded, and they don't want to spend big on marketing until they can offer the full mix of Lilly products. Peptides+ launches later this month, Q1 is when they plan to push hard, and Eucalyptus is going through a rebrand. Marketing is also down to 28% of revenue from 45%.
Cash flow is down mostly because they're spending ahead of the launches, not because the business is broken. And revenue is still tracking about 12% above the guide they gave in February.
It's not a good quarter, but it doesn't break the thesis. I also go through what I'm watching in Q4 and Q1.
The Compounder retweeted
$ASTS from $37 to $237 in 18-24 months
That's the projection
And you won't care then if you added between $30 - $60.
You will look back and see that this was a straight forward retest of the 200 WMA...standard for Wave 2.
The Compounder retweeted
$HIMS has everything lined up to produce an inflection point in Q1 2027. I’ve been talking about this for years: a non-linear value creation event that ultimately takes $HIMS to an intrinsic value per share two orders of magnitude higher. Q1 2027 is where it starts to become visible.
Here’s what converges:
1/ January. Weight loss demand peaks every year in Q1. Management knows it, so it deliberately held back marketing in Q3 and Q4 to deploy it when demand is highest.
2/ Assortment. Lilly’s Zepbound and Foundayo join Novo’s Wegovy. For the first time, every major branded GLP-1 sits on one platform. Lilly and Novo care about $HIMS for one reason: it owns the customer.
3/ Pricing. Multi-month plans arrive in weight loss. It’s the same playbook that drove retention in sexual health and hair: lower prices, longer commitments, better adherence.
4/ AI. The AI-native care experience reaches ~100% of weight loss subscribers. Patients with access already send 4x more messages and get answers in minutes instead of hours. Every interaction makes the system smarter.
5/ Peptides+. It launches this month. Weight loss is the entry point, and peptides give every patient a reason to stay for everything else. The patient stops buying a drug and starts subscribing to an outcome.
6/ That’s why subscribers dipped by 100K in Q3. It was a choice, not a crack. Gross profit still hit a record $509M. Revenue per subscriber hit a record $105 a month.
7/ The market is valuing $HIMS on pills × margin per pill. The real model is tokens × margin per token: AI-delivered care across every therapy, sold to a customer $HIMS owns. Drugs commoditize. The customer relationship doesn’t.
The Compounder retweeted
I’d like to formally invite $HIMS CEO @AndrewDudum to the pod
Would be great to have @hubermanlab on simultaneously
I think retail investors are not understanding the strategy $HIMS is executing and this pod would help
The Compounder retweeted
I am thrilled to join the Board & Advisory of Hims & Hers! The platform @AndrewDudum & Co. have built & are evolving for comprehensive telehealth incl. cardiovascular & hormone health & peptides (GLPs & more) w/start to finish (raw materials incl.) made in USA is making health & vigor available to everyone.
Our Q3 2026 results are now live!
We believe that in healthcare, whoever owns the customer relationship wins. We’re building an everyday digital health platform that millions of people can rely on, not just for a single treatment, but for the whole experience of getting and staying well. We’re making substantial progress: revenue growth accelerated to nearly 50% this quarter. Nearly three million people across four continents rely on us to access care.
Here’s how we’re continuing to push forward:
- Winning metabolic health. For many people, the relationship with Hims & Hers starts with weight loss, and we’re making care easier to access: one seamless experience across an assortment of weight loss medicines, including from @novonordisk and @EliLillyandCo, more flexible multi-month subscriptions that we’re preparing ahead of the new year, and an AI-native experience that now reaches the large majority of weight loss customers.
- Winning the major global markets: International revenue grew more than 4x year-over-year to $233 million, and is on track to reach a $1 billion annual run rate in 2027. Our reach now spans four continents, and we’re introducing the Hims & Hers brands to new markets, including Australia and Germany.
- Staying at the forefront of category expansion: Our platform helps us go deeper into complex care and launch specialties faster. For example, we launched controlled substances for the first time with injectable and oral TRT, and we’re excited to be launching our Peptides+ offering later this month.
We also announced today that @hubermanlab is joining our Board of Directors, and he’s also joining us as an advisor. I’ve spent a lot of time with Andrew over the past year and we’re in lock step on what matters: making the latest health innovations accessible and actionable for people everywhere.
This is how we’re building the platform that will redefine how people access healthcare. I can’t wait for you to see what comes next.
More on this quarter’s results, including important disclaimers: news.hims.com/newsroom/how-w…
The Compounder retweeted
$SE Reports Tuesday morning
- 3 Wave ABC pull back looks complete
- Support on its 0.78 FIB
- Now below its 200 WMA (undervalued)
- Druckenmiller has been accumulating for 12 months
- Hedge against the US market.
- Growth +32% Y/Y
- Wave 3 target is at $338
- Current price is at $75
The Compounder retweeted
$ASTS flipped from -8% to +9% today
Stop loss raid was successful.
The Compounder retweeted
We are done waiting. We are on to satellite 51 - the largest spacecrafts ever in LEO! and we are not stopping. Blacklift: built for BlueBird, built to fly!. Join me at the unveiling webcast event on Thursday, November 12 investors.ast-science.com/ 🤠🇺🇸
AST SpaceMobile to Build Own 20-Ton Rocket to Deploy BlueBird Satellites in Low Earth Orbit Using Miranda Engines from Firefly Aerospace.
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds #Blacklift
The Compounder retweeted
Inside our Next Generation Process Pilot Plant, where we test our Hydrochemolytic™ Technology on plastic waste. 👉 youtu.be/n1nCl0hrfSg
Our latest campaign ran approximately 120 hours over five days, the longest we have reported and 60% longer than our 75-hour campaign in September. What it showed:
✅ Feedstock moved from controlled polyethylene and polypropylene blends (50:50, then 80:20) to PO95 for approximately 20 hours, then back to 80:20, with no complete process shutdown
✅ PO95 is a post-consumer plastic-waste agglomerate sourced from the Netherlands, containing at least 95% polyolefins, principally polyethylene and polypropylene
✅ Planned interruption tests with each feedstock. Our Operations team restored target operating conditions each time, and backup systems kept the plant running through an unexpected utility power outage
✅ Approximately 85% condensable hydrocarbon yield, in line with the campaign's performance target, with conditions set to evaluate feedstock flexibility, process stability and operating continuity rather than to maximize yield
✅ A representative wastewater sample from PO95 processing will be characterized in detail to inform treatment system design and environmental permitting
This operating experience is informing equipment selection, process controls and procedures for our First-of-a-Kind Plant at @Chemelot, where engineering and permitting are underway.
Full news release: investors.adurocleantech.com…
#CleanTech #EcoInnovation #ChemicalRecycling #PlasticRecycling #PlasticWaste $ADUR
The Compounder retweeted
Best zot om te zien. De CEO van het Belgische EnergyVision dreigt met een exit van de beurs van Brussel als de effectentaks ingevoerd zal worden op aandelen op naam. En hij heeft in mijn ogen trouwens volledig gelijk.
Voor wie geïnteresseerd is, heb ik hieronder de oproep gezet die de CEO van EnergyVision zonet op zijn persoonlijk account heeft gepost (hij is hier niet actief) samen met zijn correspondentie met @conner_rousseau. EnergyVision was vorig jaar de meest succesvolle beursgang van de Brusselse beurs in jaren. Dat men na 1 jaar al van de Brusselse beurs zou verdwijnen zou ongezien zijn.
Hieronder de tekst:
Ja, volgens De Rijkste Belgen hoor ik bij de honderd rijkste landgenoten.
En ja, ik vind absoluut dat de sterkste schouders moeten bijdragen.
Maar neen, ik heb geen miljoenen op mijn bankrekening.
En ja, ik ben failliet als doorgaat wat de regering-Bart De Wever volgens de kranten gaat doen. En onze medewerkers van het eerste uur ook.
De regering zou een effectentaks willen heffen op aandelen op naam voor beursgenoteerde bedrijven. Exact een jaar geleden heb ik daar nachten van wakker gelegen, maar Conner Rousseau Officieel himself bevestigde dat die er niet zou komen (je ziet de mail hier). En nu ligt dat toch weer op tafel?
Ik heb nul problemen met een meerwaardebelasting als je aandelen verkoopt – wat mij betreft mag die gerust omhoog. Maar papieren vermogen belasten, dat is een waanzinnig slecht idee.
De oprichters (Koen, Hassan en ik) hebben voor intussen 700 miljoen EUR aandelen in EnergyVision. Die aandelen kunnen we jarenlang niet verkopen (lock-up getekend bij beursgang). Maar we zouden er wel miljoenen EUR per jaar voor moeten betalen. Geld dat we niet hebben: ik heb één gezinswoning, één wagen en 70.000 EUR op mijn spaarrekening. Mijn hele vermogen zit in de uitbouw van EnergyVision.
Of neem onze eerste medewerkers: die kregen tien jaar terug opties, die intussen miljoenenpakketten in aandelen betekenen. Ook zij kunnen die niet verkopen wegens lock-up, maar gaan straks wel een effectentaks betalen?
En los van ons: kijk naar andere Belgische small- of midcap bedrijven. Strategische aandeelhouders in bedrijven, die zich inkopen om een bedrijf te redden en er daarna volop in werken – met heel hun vermogen en al hun aandacht – moeten straks effectentaks betalen en dus aandelen verkopen om die te kunnen betalen?
Beste regering. Verhoog gerust de meerwaardebelasting. Ik denk dat ondernemers van mijn generatie of jonger daar NUL problemen mee hebben. Maar belast geen papieren vermogen. Dan heb je wellicht geen volgende TechWolf meer. Dan komt Aikido Security wellicht niet naar de beurs. Dan gaat EnergyVision noodgedwongen weg van de beurs (of ben ik persoonlijk failliet).
We gaan Euronext Brussel aantrekkelijk maken, stond in het regeerakkoord. Wat kregen we sindsdien: een meerwaardebelasting, een verdubbeling van de effectentaks, en nu ligt een uitbreiding naar aandelen op naam op tafel. Ik zou het op onze volgende Raad van Bestuur willen hebben over onze groeiplannen, hoe we de uitverkoop van onze energiemarkt stoppen en terugbuigen, over hoe we dé Belgische speler in energie kunnen worden. Maar zoals het nu voorligt, gaat onze volgende Raad van Bestuur over onze beursexit.
Bron: Maarten Michielssens, founder en CEO bij EnergyVision
The Compounder retweeted
AST SPACEMOBILE TO BUILD GOVERNMENT SATELLITES? 🤔
In the Blacklift press release, there was an important detail 👀
"The company also has access to further launches for U.S. Government missions alongside its Defense Priorities and Allocations System (DPAS) rated program."
It appears Government contracts could be coming soon and they might be large 🧇
$ASTS
The Compounder retweeted
AST SpaceMobile to Build Own 20-Ton Rocket to Deploy BlueBird Satellites in Low Earth Orbit Using Miranda Engines from Firefly Aerospace.
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds #Blacklift
The Compounder retweeted
EXCUSE ME
$ASTS standing on business!!
This is HUGE
AST SpaceMobile to Build Own 20-Ton Rocket to Deploy BlueBird Satellites in Low Earth Orbit Using Miranda Engines from Firefly Aerospace.
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds #Blacklift
The Compounder retweeted
People deserve to have access to the most innovative treatments. That’s why we work with leaders across the industry, and starting today, that includes @EliLillyandCo.
When innovators work together, it’s better for everyone. Customers can access more personal care, providers have a well-rounded picture of how their patients are doing, and drugmakers can be confident that the people who need their medications the most will be able to get their hands on it and stick to it.
Lilly is one of the most innovative companies in the world, and we share a commitment to reaching real people with real impact. Working together means we can combine some of the world’s best medicines with our powerful platform to help more people feel great.
Read more, including important info: news.hims.com/newsroom/lilly…
The Compounder retweeted
Everyone’s a long term investor for 2027, 2028, or 2029 onward
Until their portfolio experiences volatility months in. I still think:
- $RKLB could end up the next $SPCX
- $NBIS has the potential to be the next hyperscaler
- $SIVE has moonshot potential to be the next $LITE
- 1-3x P/E memory companies and $AXTI substrate bottlenecks are more durable than markets think
And that it’s stupid to sell single digit fwd P/E AI companies or promising longs.
And rotate that into 5% growth towel resellers at 47x P/E. Or 180x cyber companies, just because they’re going up.
I’ve seen $AMD go from the $3 valley of doom to $400 as people thought it could be the next $INTC / $NVDA.
And been through the Bitcoin $1000 -> $18,000 -> $3000 -> $100,000 cycle.
Not advice on how to position or trade, but anyone on extreme leverage during those times got wiped out.
While the underlying assets sharply recovered later.
I do think AI, Space, and Physical AI are the future.
So, I’m remaining long, and using this time to maximize exposure to the winners
The best feature my new Tesla Model Y has is @grok being able to summarize @TheLongInvest his tweets for today.