$BTC setups, execution and trading psychology from a full-time trader.
Joined December 2024
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Traders sometimes ruin a good setup by trying to squeeze more profit out of it.
You find a clean entry, the structure makes sense, and there's enough room to your target. But when you calculate the position size based on where your stop needs to be, the potential profit isn't nearly as exciting as you hoped.
So you start making adjustments. Move the stop closer to increase your position size, even though the chart doesn't justify it. Maybe aim for a bigger target. Anything to make the numbers look a little more attractive.
There's nothing wrong with passing on a trade because the potential reward isn't worth the risk. But moving your stop or target just to make the trade look more profitable on paper is asking for trouble.
What started as a perfectly reasonable setup has now become a trade with a stop that doesn't make much sense and a target that price may never realistically reach.
All because the original profit wasn't attractive enough.
$BTC
We now have a 4H close below 80K.
I’ve placed a limit order and also have a plan for a possible manual entry.
Full trade details are in my Telegram channel.
Details in the reply.
Once I take the trade, I'll share the entry, stop loss and trade management in real time on my new Telegram channel.
Join here for free: t.me/BullsBytesTrades
A lot of traders underestimate how difficult it is to change their mind when the market gives them new information.
You spend hours analyzing a chart, mark your key levels, and build a solid case for price moving higher. Then resistance holds, buyers fail to push through, and price starts forming lower highs.
But instead of reconsidering your outlook, you keep looking for reasons why the bullish scenario should still play out. Every small bounce looks like confirmation, while the signs of weakness get brushed aside.
There’s nothing wrong with having a directional bias. You need some idea of what you’re looking for.
But if you’re still defending yesterday’s analysis while today’s chart is telling you something different, you’re making trading a lot harder than it needs to be.
$BTC
No trades for me this week.
The triggers for the scenarios I shared on Monday didn’t come this week, so there was nothing to execute. It’s that simple.
It was a choppy week, so BTC is still setting up for the next bigger move, and when that move comes, the trade plan is already there waiting to be executed.
So I don’t need a new plan on Monday. The current one stays in place.
For anyone who missed it:
84K breaks → 85K → 87K → watch for a short.
80K breaks → 78K–77K → watch for a long.
I’ll also watch how BTC reacts if 80K gets tested again, because that level is still major support and could offer a long opportunity as well.
But the setup I’d prefer is a break of 80K followed by a move into the 78K–77K area.
For a short, I’m not interested before BTC gets back toward 87K.
Patience stays the game.
Enjoy your weekend!
Once I take the trade, I'll share the entry, stop loss and trade management in real time on my new Telegram channel.
Join here for free: t.me/BullsBytesTrades
A few good trades in a row can make you forget how much risk you're actually taking.
You start feeling comfortable with your entries. Your levels are holding, price keeps reaching your targets, and your account is growing. Then you see another setup and decide to increase your position size. After all, you've been reading the market pretty well lately.
I've seen traders slowly increase their risk during a winning streak without really noticing how much their approach has changed.
There's nothing wrong with increasing your size when your account grows and your risk plan allows for it. But doing it simply because the last few trades worked out is a different story.
The next trade has no idea how well you've been doing lately.
And it can take back several good trades if you've suddenly decided to risk twice as much.
$BTC did exactly what I was waiting for.
84K was retested, but it failed to hold on the 4H. That means 84K remains resistance for now.
As long as BTC stays below the 4H 200 EMA and continues pushing lower, the downside plan I shared earlier starts getting closer:
80K breaks → 78K–77K → watch for a long.
The short setup is further away now. For that, BTC first needs to reclaim 84K and then move back toward 87K.
So for now, we’re still stuck in chop.
Patience is still the game right now.
$BTC has closed above 84K on the 4H.
The next move I’d expect is a retest of 84K. If BTC can hold that level on a 4H closing basis, 84K would flip into support and 85K becomes the next target.
There’s also a chance BTC moves straight into 85K first. Either way, it doesn’t change anything for me based on the trading plan I shared earlier.
If you want to know what I’m looking for on my next trade, check my post from October 19.
For now, I’m still staying patient.
Be sure to FOLLOW ME so you don’t miss any updates.
Once I take the trade, I'll share the entry, stop loss and trade management in real time on my new Telegram channel.
Join here for free: t.me/BullsBytesTrades
I’ve seen traders spend hours analyzing a chart, only to completely ignore their own analysis the moment price starts moving.
They’ve marked their levels, know where they want to enter, and have a clear idea of what would invalidate the setup. Then a big candle appears, price starts running, and suddenly they’re buying somewhere they never planned to.
The frustrating part is that sometimes those trades actually work out. You catch a nice move, take the profit, and start convincing yourself that being more aggressive was the right call.
But think about how often you’ve chased a move, only to watch price pull back to the exact level you originally planned to trade.
You spent hours figuring out where you’d want to buy.
Then paid a worse price because you couldn’t stand watching it move without you.
$BTC has closed above 84K on the 4H.
The next move I’d expect is a retest of 84K. If BTC can hold that level on a 4H closing basis, 84K would flip into support and 85K becomes the next target.
There’s also a chance BTC moves straight into 85K first. Either way, it doesn’t change anything for me based on the trading plan I shared earlier.
If you want to know what I’m looking for on my next trade, check my post from October 19.
For now, I’m still staying patient.
Be sure to FOLLOW ME so you don’t miss any updates.
Once I take the trade, I'll share the entry, stop loss and trade management in real time on my new Telegram channel.
Join here for free: t.me/BullsBytesTrades
One of the easiest ways to fool yourself in trading is to mistake a good outcome for a good decision.
You take an entry you normally wouldn’t touch, ignore your confirmation, or size up because you’re feeling confident. Price goes your way, you close in profit, and suddenly none of those decisions seem so bad anymore.
I’ve seen traders become more confident after a lucky win than after ten trades where they actually followed their plan.
The market doesn’t always punish bad decisions immediately. Sometimes it rewards them just enough to make you think you’ve figured something out.
The next time you take that same trade, you might not be so lucky.
$BTC
Still stuck in the range.
Nothing has changed, so I’m still sitting on my hands.
If you missed my trading plan, check the previous post.
$BTC
The downside scenario I outlined in the previous update has played out.
BTC has now moved back into the September breakout range, where price is consolidating again.
84K remains the main resistance on the upside. If buyers finally break through it, 85K becomes the next level to reclaim. Above that, I’d expect another rotation toward 87K.
I’m not looking to chase a long on a break of 84K. If BTC gets back to 87K, I’ll watch the reaction there for a potential short setup.
On the downside, BTC has closed back below the 4H 200 EMA again. The EMA has flattened out though, so a close above or below it carries less weight while price remains stuck in this range.
80K is still major support. If that breaks, I’d expect BTC to move into the 78K–77K area next.
Around that area, I’ll start looking for a potential long, depending on the reaction.
So for now, 84K and 80K are the main levels defining the range.
84K breaks → 85K → 87K → watch for a short.
80K breaks → 78K–77K → watch for a long.
No reason to force anything in the middle.
Once I take the trade, I'll share the entry, stop loss and trade management in real time on my new Telegram channel.
Join here for free: t.me/BullsBytesTrades
$BTC
The downside scenario I outlined in the previous update has played out.
BTC has now moved back into the September breakout range, where price is consolidating again.
84K remains the main resistance on the upside. If buyers finally break through it, 85K becomes the next level to reclaim. Above that, I’d expect another rotation toward 87K.
I’m not looking to chase a long on a break of 84K. If BTC gets back to 87K, I’ll watch the reaction there for a potential short setup.
On the downside, BTC has closed back below the 4H 200 EMA again. The EMA has flattened out though, so a close above or below it carries less weight while price remains stuck in this range.
80K is still major support. If that breaks, I’d expect BTC to move into the 78K–77K area next.
Around that area, I’ll start looking for a potential long, depending on the reaction.
So for now, 84K and 80K are the main levels defining the range.
84K breaks → 85K → 87K → watch for a short.
80K breaks → 78K–77K → watch for a long.
No reason to force anything in the middle.
You can finish green and still trade yourself into frustration.
I've seen plenty of traders finish a profitable week and still feel like they didn't do enough.
You close a trade too early, miss an entry, or watch price hit your original target after you've already taken profit. And somehow those are the moments you keep thinking about, even though you finished the week in the green.
It's easy to judge your trading by the money you could have made instead of the decisions you actually made.
There's always going to be more profit you could have squeezed out of a move.
But if you followed your plan, managed your risk, and finished the week profitable, what exactly are you beating yourself up about?
I've seen plenty of traders finish a profitable week and still feel like they didn't do enough.
You close a trade too early, miss an entry, or watch price hit your original target after you've already taken profit. And somehow those are the moments you keep thinking about, even though you finished the week in the green.
It's easy to judge your trading by the money you could have made instead of the decisions you actually made.
There's always going to be more profit you could have squeezed out of a move.
But if you followed your plan, managed your risk, and finished the week profitable, what exactly are you beating yourself up about?
Today I closed my BTC long in profit because the original thesis was no longer holding up.
I was sitting on a decent gain when price started moving against my expectations. Instead of holding on and risking giving it all back, I closed the position and took the profit.
Still finished the week profitable.
Yesterday I wrote about knowing when to close a trade once the original thesis no longer holds.
Today was a good example of putting that into practice.
I've seen so many traders spend way too much energy trying to rescue positions they probably should have closed.
The setup failed, price broke the level they were watching, and now they're looking for reasons to stay in. A bounce on the lower timeframe. A support level further down. Anything that makes holding feel like a reasonable decision.
I've got no problem holding a trade through a pullback when the original idea is still valid. But once that idea is gone, constantly looking for new reasons to stay in can become a pretty expensive habit.
You're still taking the risk, your capital is tied up, and half your attention is going into defending a trade you wouldn't even consider opening at the current price.
$BTC
I closed the long in profit after the failure to reclaim the 82.2K–82.8K zone and the move back below the 4H 200 SMA.
With the weekend coming up, I’d rather lock in another profitable week than force the trade.
I’ll start looking for the next setup again on Monday.
Be sure to FOLLOW ME so you don’t miss any updates.
