
Helping people make better investments @chitchatstocks // Contributing Stock Market Analyst @themotleyfool Also on BlueSky: https://xitter.gq/t.co/NnrzRV7ert
Joined October 2018
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Reminder to readers/listeners: not planning to post here much anymore
Main conversations on stocks, markets, investing memes etc has moved to our (free) substack chat: emergingmoats.com/chat
Show updates and data will continue to be posted on @chitchatstocks
Brett retweeted
Crocs: Double-Digit Buyback Yield $CROX
- Segment revenue trends
- Buyback and apparel trickiness
- Investment decision
- Portfolio update and notes on $NU $KRKNF $CAAP
emergingmoats.com/p/crocs-do…
Brett retweeted
Today's Investing Power Hour!
FICO and Nike Tumble; Burry Accelerates AI Short Bet; Compounders Out of Favor $NKE $FICO $DPZ
Listen wherever you get your podcasts
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/49p…
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Brett retweeted
New podcast episode with @JimPGillies!
- Reviewing past hidden gem picks
- New small cap stocks on his radar
- Lessons for investors in 2026
Find it wherever you get your podcasts
Brett retweeted
"The difference becomes tangible when something changes. Consider a structural change to a building. The next generation of Assistant can understand that change in the context of the project, identify its downstream impacts on fabrication, schedule, cost, construction sequencing, and operations, and bring forward the Autodesk capabilities needed to act. Instead of simply describing the problem, Assistant can connect project intelligence to the precise design, engineering, and production tools teams rely on to evaluate options and move toward a trusted, buildable outcome" $ADSK
Brett retweeted
"Mercado Livre announced this Thursday (24), during a press conference at the Mercado Livre Experience event, in São Paulo, new steps to advance in the health sector and in ultra-fast e-commerce. The marketplace will start selling medicines that require a prescription and will also allow the entry of large pharmacy chains that will be able to sell on the marketplace." $MELI
Brett retweeted
"Running a restaurant is simple. Even if Alsea is operating in many different countries with many different concepts, the goal is the same everywhere: get enough traffic to drive operating leverage per unit and maximize returns on invested capital (ROIC). For Alsea, we need to see enough operating earnings growth to achieve an acceptable ROIC vs. its debt load, which is quite high and comes with interest rates tied to the Mexican and European floating rates, although it does get a slight discount because of its “sustainability” linked lending facilities (how slinging cheap pizza and hamburgers means saving the environment to Mexican regulators, I will not question)."
emergingmoats.com/p/alsea-du…
Brett retweeted
"The question remains whether Domino’s, Starbucks, and sit-down restaurants will sustain demand, but I think sprinkling in Raising Cane’s and Chipotle while trimming Burger King will lead to solid financial results over the next five years. You could have an opportunity to grow invested capital and improve ROIC. Combined with the decline in interest expense as a % of revenue, the financial statements may look much better five years from now."
emergingmoats.com/p/alsea-du…
Brett retweeted
"The big question is whether free cash flow conversion ends up being much lower or higher than 20%. It should also be considered that Alsea is still a growth concept that is highly levered. If/when the balance sheet delevers and unit growth as a % of overall units slows down, free cash flow conversion will likely be much higher than the previous decade. For now, I think 20% is a reasonable figure."
emergingmoats.com/p/alsea-du…
Brett retweeted
This week's Power Hour w/ fill-in guest @ariaradnia
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/2bO…
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Listen wherever you get your podcasts
Brett retweeted
"Peter Beck has done so many things right"
@7Innovator on why $RKLB has been so successful as a space flight disruptor
Duolingo Stock: Value Play or Value Trap? Plus, An Update On Rocket Lab, With @7Innovator $DUOL $RKLB
(00:00) Introduction
(03:44) The AI Narrative and Duolingo's Position
(06:38) Understanding Duolingo's Business Model (09:42) Growth and User Engagement Strategies
(12:45) Challenges and Market Dynamics
(15:54) Valuation and Financial Performance
(18:53) Management and Future Outlook
(29:43) Rocket Lab
(36:49) Strategic Acquisitions and Growth Plans
(40:37) Financial Strategies and Market Positioning (45:46) Valuation Insights and Market Expectations (50:17) Comparing Rocket Lab and SpaceX
Listen to the Chit Chat Stocks Podcast on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts
Brett retweeted
People seem to be misinterpreting why Seattle is fucked. Seattle is not fucked because they over-regulate big business or because of the “millionaire’s tax.” They’re fucked because they overregulate small and mid-sized businesses which caused a massive localized inflationary spiral that is forcing out big businesses because labor costs are too high
Seattle massively over regulated the service sector by imposing gargantuan minimum wages on restaurants and delivery apps + implementing a zillion other regulations that caused service sector costs to soar. Seattle’s housing prices are actually *declining* but their inflation rate has been 1-1.5 points higher than the national average despite reduced housing costs. This is caused mainly by food service prices rising at 7% a year due to Seattle’s minimum wage policies and excessive service sector regulations. Inflation in Seattle is now 5% and nominal wage growth is 3%, meaning real wages fell 2% in the last twelve months
High local inflation forced big companies to pay artificially high wages because highly paid corporate workers expect wages to keep up with living costs. On top of that, Seattle has a payroll tax that almost exclusively applies to huge companies. Those big companies are therefore paying insane wages to do business in Seattle, whereas if they relocated, they could pay people the same real wages relative to local cost of living and save tens of millions a year in corporate labor costs alone
But here’s the thing: Because Seattle overregulated their small and midsize businesses, those businesses are now operating on razor thin margins and are reliant on highly paid corporate workers who can pay exorbitant prices in order to stay in business. So when a corporate office relocates out of Seattle, all of the local restaurants collapse because they no longer have a customer base who can afford the prices they have to charge due to Seattle’s regulatory environment
What this means is that as corporations cut payroll in Seattle the entire city’s service sector is imploding, which has resulted in localized stagflation. Their whole labor market is quickly evaporating and now they have 5.5% unemployment, 5% inflation, and -2% real wage growth.
None of this has anything to do with the “millionaire’s tax” because the companies are leaving before the people do. Why would companies care about a tax on ultra high incomes that doesn’t impact their cost of doing business?










