CIIAN

📢New episode of Conflict, Power & Persuasion. You know bias. But have you met noise? In this episode, Warren Hoffman speaks with @SibOliv, Olivier Sibony, a leading expert on strategic decision-making and co-author of Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment with Daniel Kahneman and Cass Sunstein. Noise is the hidden variability in human judgement. It is the reason equally qualified people, looking at the same information, may reach very different conclusions. For conflict practitioners, negotiators, mediators, arbitrators, HR professionals, leaders, and decision-makers, this is not just an academic issue. It affects how we design processes, apply standards, exercise discretion, evaluate options, and make decisions that others experience as fair or unfair. The episode helps listeners think more clearly about how judgement fails, why inconsistency is often invisible, and what better decision processes might require in a world increasingly shaped by AI. Listen here: ciian.org/podcast/ #conflict #conflictresolution #decisionmaking #leadership #negotiation #negotiationtips #mediation #organizationaldevelopment #noise

🐭 Mice just accidentally replicated one of psychology's most famous experiments. In 1954, psychologist Muzafer Sherif brought 22 eleven-year-old boys to Robbers Cave State Park, Oklahoma. Split into two groups, the Rattlers and Eagles didn't know the other existed for the first week, while each built its own identity. Then they were introduced through a tournament of tug-of-war, baseball, and treasure hunts for a prize both sides wanted. Hostility escalated quickly: name-calling, cabin raids, a burned flag. It became a famous demonstration that conflict isn't always found in people. Sometimes it's built into the structure around them. A new preprint by Nakata and colleagues just ran something close to a mouse version. Eighty-four male mice were trained on a shared rope-pulling task called Tsunahiki, then split into 14 groups of six. Eight groups competed repeatedly, while six stayed in a shared-task control condition. Once rivalry began, mice in the competing groups started biting members of the opposing team, not their own teammates, and the more a team won, the more it attacked. After researchers ended the competition, removed the divider, and restored the shared task, aggression nearly disappeared. It's a small, male-only, unreplicated preprint, and because three things changed at once in the "reconciliation" phase, it can't tell us which change did the work. 💡 Still, it's a useful nudge for anyone who designs how groups work together. Structures where teams operate under different incentives, or where rewards are quietly zero-sum, can create friction even when no one intended it. Conflict between groups doesn't always start with a personality clash. Sometimes it's manufactured by the structure itself. ✅ Before writing off another group as "just difficult," ask what the structure is teaching people to do. Misaligned incentives, visible in-group/out-group lines, and rewards that depend on someone else losing can turn neutral parties into opponents. What are your incentives actually rewarding? Where might the structure be zero-sum? Is there anything the groups can only achieve by succeeding together? Sometimes the fix isn't a better conversation. It's a different game. And if you're wondering what got the Rattlers and Eagles to stand down: it wasn't a movie or friendly meal. Sherif tried those, and some ended in food fights. What worked was having both groups push a stalled supply truck out of the mud together, a problem neither side could solve alone. Contact wasn't the fix. A shared task, with something real at stake, was. Original Study: lnkd.in/gfgRiAFf Robbers Cave: lnkd.in/gipTReBi #ConflictResolution #BehaviouralScience #OrganizationalBehaviour #GroupDynamics #WorkplaceConflict #DecisionMaking #SystemsThinking #Negotiation

Sometimes, refusing to take a side is treated as taking the wrong side. New research by Giulia Maimone and Craig McKenzie examined how people with opposing political positions perceived genuinely moderate policies and individuals. The results are striking: people on each side frequently classified the moderate position as belonging to the opposing camp. The centre did not look like common ground. It looked like the other side. The researchers describe this as the “moderate as out-group” effect. Their experiments suggest that the problem was not simply that moderates failed to support someone’s preferred side strongly enough. Moderates also appeared unwilling to reject the opposing side. That distinction matters. Imagine an argument around a dinner table. One person refuses to join in and says, “I can understand where both sides are coming from.” They may intend to calm the conversation. But someone who sees the issue as morally clear may hear something very different: “You are unwilling to say that they are wrong.” The same dynamic can arise when a manager declines to endorse either employee’s account, when a counsellor explores a perspective rather than confirming it, or when a negotiator withholds a strong position on an issue they do not consider especially important. In each case, neutrality is not experienced as an empty space. People fill that space with meaning. This has particular relevance for mediators, facilitators, HR professionals and others whose role requires them to remain open, balanced or non-aligned. Their intentions may be impartial, but the parties are still interpreting what they acknowledge, challenge, condemn or leave unsaid. It raises a highly practical question: When an issue has become moralized, how do we remain open without allowing openness itself to be mistaken for endorsement? Perhaps the first step is simply recognizing that withholding a stance is still a social signal, and that others may not read that signal as we intended. 👉 apa.org/pubs/journals/releas… #negotiation #conflictresolution #facilitation #leadership #neutrality #mediation

Record child violations in armed conflict are not only a humanitarian crisis. They are also a warning about the erosion of protective norms, accountability, and respect for international law. According to the UN’s latest reporting on Children and Armed Conflict, 2025 saw the highest number of children affected since the mandate was established 30 years ago. The report verified 38,558 grave violations affecting 24,174 children, including killing and maiming, recruitment and use, abduction, sexual violence, attacks on schools and hospitals, and denial of humanitarian access. For CIIAN, this is a reminder of why conflict prevention, principled negotiation, mediation, and peacebuilding remain essential. Destructive conflict does not begin at its worst point. It escalates through failures of leadership, accountability, dialogue, restraint, and protection. Preventing and resolving destructive conflict is not abstract work. In its most urgent form, it is about protecting human life, preserving dignity, and strengthening the systems that keep civilians, especially children, out of harm’s way. 👉Read the UN Report here: childrenandarmedconflict.un.… #peacebuilding #conflictresolution #Negotiation #violenceprevention

The Rhodesian Bush War killed tens of thousands of people and left the country trapped in a bitter conflict over power, legitimacy, race, land, and independence. At the 1979 Lancaster House Conference on Zimbabwe-Rhodesia, Lord Carrington helped move a bitter conflict toward settlement through a move many mediators would be reluctant to make: He gave the parties someone else to blame. The concessions were painful. The conflict was public. Each side had supporters watching. Accepting compromise could look like weakness, betrayal, or defeat. So Carrington absorbed some of the reputational cost. The parties could accept terms they may not have been able to propose themselves, while preserving enough standing with their own constituencies. That is not just diplomatic theatre. It is face-saving as settlement design. A recent PNAS study helps explain why this matters. Across six countries and two U.S. cultural regions, researchers found the same basic pattern: shame increased when a failure was public rather than private, and when the failure involved something others valued highly, such as competence, intelligence, parenting, or communication. The striking point is not simply that people feel shame across cultures. It is that shame appeared to follow the same social logic across very different cultural settings: it rose when reputational threat rose. That does not mean culture is irrelevant. Different cultures may vary in what they value, what counts as dishonourable, and what kinds of failure carry the greatest social cost. But the underlying sensitivity to public devaluation seems to cross borders. In other words, shame appears to track reputational threat. That has real implications for conflict and negotiation. People are not only protecting interests. They are often protecting identity, status, loyalty, competence, and social standing. Sometimes the path to agreement is not simply asking, “What concession can they make?” It is asking, “How can they make it without being humiliated?” Read more: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.25… #negotiation #conflictresolution #diplomacy #negotiationtips #MediationTraining

Most negotiators know about anchoring. An opening offer, first number, or early position can pull thinking in its direction, even when that starting point is arbitrary or strategic. A recent study by Calvin Isch and Damon Centola adds an important wrinkle. In a study of 1,600 participants, they found: ✅anchoring showed up clearly ✅simply giving people more time to reflect on their own did not significantly reduce the bias ✅when people were exposed to structured input from others, accuracy improved ✅people moved away from harmful anchors and closer to more accurate judgements ✅“confidence in others” seemed to matter more than confidence in self when it came to improving judgements That has a useful implication for negotiation teams, leadership teams, and anyone making decisions in conflict. More discussion is not automatically better. Groups can just as easily reinforce bad anchors, especially when a loud voice, senior person, or rush to consensus takes over. So the real challenge is finding the line between debiasing and groupthink. The goal is not blind confidence in the group. The goal is a team process that helps people test assumptions, compare perspectives, and revise their thinking without losing face. Good teams do not just “get aligned.” They help each other think better. Maybe the better question in negotiation is not: “How confident are we?” But: “What are we anchored to, and have we created enough honest exchange to challenge it?” Read more here: 👉lnkd.in/gR_Mu8xW hashtag#conflict hashtag#negotiation hashtag#teambuilding hashtag#cognitivebias hashtag#groupthink hashtag#debiasing

New research uses fMRI to examine how people respond when they witness toxic behaviour at work. The interesting part: it may not be moral outrage that drives people to act, but empathy. The authors suggest that empathic concern is linked to stepping in and supporting others. This points to a different approach to workplace culture: Instead of only reinforcing rules or consequences, organizations may need to focus more on cultivating empathy if they want ethical behaviour to show up in real time. When you think about it, that makes sense. People don’t just act on what’s “right” — they act on what they feel connected to. Full article: rutgers.edu/news/mri-scans-r… #conflictresolution #workplace #conflictculture

Sometimes emotions are used strategically. But more often, conflict escalates for a quieter reason: emotion is misread as intent. R.D. Laing captures this in Knots (1971), where one person’s hurt is interpreted as an attack (“you’re doing that to me”), rather than information (“you’re feeling something”). That misread creates a loop: defensiveness triggers more hurt, which triggers more defensiveness. Once you notice it, you’ll see it everywhere: couples, workplaces, families, community groups. #conflictresolution #emotionalintelligence #mediation #disputeresolution #conflictmanagement

Sequential negotiations are everywhere. Think of natural resource allocations like fishing quotas, water access, forestry rights - or everyday situations like business partnerships, real estate development, or succession planning. The same people negotiate more than once, and today’s choices shape what’s possible tomorrow. In a new 2025 study, researchers looked at how efficient these kinds of negotiations really are when the value of resources changes over time. Their assumption was reasonable: more trust should mean less greed early on, and more optimized outcomes across multiple rounds of negotiation. In other words, if I trust you, I don’t need to grab as much right now because I believe we’ll both do better later. But that’s not what they found. Trust did improve cooperation. People were more willing to make deals. But it didn’t improve the efficiency of those deals. Even when participants knew the future value would be higher, they still took too much too early. Again and again, people optimized for short-term relief rather than long-term gain. That’s a critical finding for process design. It tells us that goodwill alone doesn’t protect long-term value. When future outcomes matter, the process has to build in guardrails against taking too much too soon. So in negotiations, you might: ✅ Set clear future valuation moments before anyone cashes out early ✅ Use staged agreements instead of settling everything all at once ✅ Hold off on one-way concessions until future value is properly factored in ✅ Build in natural check-in points when conditions change ✅ Make the long-term cost of early decisions explicit, not just implied When timing matters, patience can’t just be a personal virtue. It has to be built into the structure of the deal. Read the full study here 👉 psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202… #negotiation #conflictresolution #DecisionMaking #meditation #leadership #processdesign #environmentalprotection #cognitivebias

Organised crime isn’t just about violence and turf wars. According to @federico_varese, many mafia-style organisations operate like informal states - managing disputes, supervising trade, and providing order where official institutions fail. In this episode of #Conflict, #Power & #Persuasion, Federico uncovers how these “shadow governments” emerge, expand and influence communities across continents. 📷 Listen now: open.spotify.com/episode/7Ij… #Criminology #Negotiation #GlobalCrime #persuasion #disputeresolution #organizedcrime

We’re always glad to spotlight the work coming out of our internship program. As part of her internship with us, Chiara Casagrande expanded on the focus of her Master’s thesis by developing a structured overview of informal mediation with non-state armed groups. It distills the core concepts in a clear, approachable way for those interested in this aspect of conflict work. You can read her full document here: ciian.org/wp-content/uploads…

We’re always glad to spotlight the work coming out of our internship program. As part of her internship with us, Chiara Casagrande expanded on the focus of her Master’s thesis by developing a structured overview of informal mediation with non-state armed groups. It distills the core concepts in a clear, approachable way for those interested in this aspect of conflict work. You can read her full document here: ciian.org/wp-content/uploads…

Think negotiation is only about closing deals? New research shows it can reshape how people see themselves, and the choices they make for years. A decade-long study tracked adolescent girls in Lusaka, Zambia who received negotiation-skills training. Ten years later, they stayed in school longer, married later, and made more self-directed choices about their futures. They also reported lower HIV-risk perceptions and less traditional gender attitudes. The training didn’t just teach tactics, it shifted how they experienced power. These young women learned to name their needs, set boundaries, and seek mutual gains. In everyday life -not just at a negotiation table- they began acting from a different sense of agency. Learning to negotiate became a framework for empowerment. At CIIAN, we see negotiation as more than a skill... it’s a practice that reshapes how people understand boundaries, choices, and agency, in power-laden relationships. Read more here → nber.org/.../working_papers/… #Negotiation #ConflictResolution #Coaching #Empowerment #RelationalSkills #mediation #negotiationskills

CIIAN works with interns from across disciplines who share a commitment to peace and constructive conflict resolution. Here, Cornell MPA student Paul Caruso presents his internship project at Cornell’s Opportunity Grant Showcase, where he shared his work designing a policy negotiation competition and new evaluation tools. We’re glad to support emerging professionals shaping the future of this field. #mediation #ConflictResolution #conflictmanagement #negotiations #negotiationskills

It’s widely accepted that in #negotiations, making the first offer is often a superior strategy - the so-called "first offer effect" - largely attributed to anchoring. A new meta-analysis adds important nuance: How that offer is made matters. An aggressive or angry first offer increases the risk of impasse and lowers subjective value - how fair and satisfying the negotiation feels to the other side. Context matters too. In more complex negotiations with multiple issues, the first offer effect loses some of its punch. Keep in mind, in negotiations, whether you make the first offer - and how you deliver it - are critical considerations. Read the full study here: tinyurl.com/rpysds72 #conflict #negotiation #negotiationstrategy #DecisionMaking #leadershipdevelopment #leadership

What’s the most underrated skill in #ProfessionalDevelopment? Our bet: #conflict competence. The ability to stay grounded, listen deeply, and #negotiate well changes careers - and workplaces.

Sue Williams has negotiated in some of the highest-stakes environments on Earth - from pirates and organized crime, to terrorist incidents and international abductions. In this episode of #Conflict, #Power & #Persuasion, go behind the scenes of crisis negotiation and hear what Sue believes every leader should understand about trust, risk, and tough negotiation decisions. 👉Listen now: ciian.org/podcast #NegotiationSkills #leadershipskills #leadershipdevelopment #crisismanagement #conflictresolution #conflictmanagement #NegotiationTips

Ever noticed how organizational change so often ends up being about layoffs, restructuring, and tight control - even when leaders say people and culture matter most? Well, organizational change is typically classified along two paths: ✔️Theory E: focused on structure, control, and shareholder value ✔️Theory O: focused on trust, development, and long-term capability Most leaders aim to blend the two. But a recent study of 119 managers found that even when a mixed approach is used, decisions tend to skew toward Theory E. Why? Two hidden culprits: 1️⃣ An illusion of control, where leaders overestimate their ability to engineer outcomes 2️⃣ Simplified ideas about how change works—favouring speed, clarity, and authority over complexity and collaboration Strategic decisions aren’t just shaped by policies or timelines—they’re shaped by mindset. And if we’re not aware of those internal biases, they can quietly pull change efforts off track. A bit of awareness upfront can prevent a lot of disruption down the line. 🔗 Read the full study: mdpi.com/2076-3387/15/6/227 #negotiation #organizationalculture #organizationlchange #leadership #leadershipdevelopment #conflictresolution #conflictmanagement

Think you can size someone up over Zoom? ....Think again. Turns out our ancestors didn’t evolve on Teams calls. New study finds face-to-face communication still beats video and text when it comes to reading people. 👉Read the study here: sciencedirect.com/science/ar… #negotiation #remotework #NegotiationSkills #disputeresolution #mediation #leadershipskills #peacebuilding #leadershipdevelopment

Empathy can build trust—or blur your judgement. Here’s how to use it wisely in negotiations. 👉ciian.org/negotiation-empath… #NegotiationSkills #negotiation #conflictresolution #mediation #leadershipdevelopment #leadershipskills #EmpathyInAction