FermatCap (@CapFermat) profile picture

FermatCap

@CapFermat

Investor & Underqualified Polymath https://xitter.gq/t.co/6bIasXFcjK All thoughts are my own, Not investment advice

 NYC
Joined September 2024
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eGrocery is likely winner-takes-most and $CART's large-basket flywheel gives it the right to win. I see a path to ~30% 3yr IRR New Instacart $CART memo and model up on the Substack: substack.com/home/post/p-193…
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1/ Great article, $WISE not withdrawing is odd but I'd emphasize that the OCC decided to make decisions public as of Jun'26. WISE is the 1st decision to be published since the change and perhaps the communication to applicants changed as well as an effort to show the new baseline
Rene Sellmann (@ReneSellmann) profile pictureRene Sellmann
@ReneSellmannJul 24
Wise $WSE fell 10% on Friday morning after the OCC denied its US bank charter. $WISE I spent the day going through the regulator's letter, the comparison set of 19 applicants, and everything else you need to know about today’s event. Six things the coverage is getting wrong 👇🏻 (share this with everyone following Wise)
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2/ The next data point is the large early-2026 cohort of applicants coming up on the ~120 day mark, (especially Payoneer and Revolut's (2nd app)). We should get much more color on the OCC's new standards in the coming weeks
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NEW YORK KNICKS
@nyknicksJun 14
NEW YORK FOREVER WE DID THIS TOGETHER THE CITY'S ALIVE KNICKS IN FIVE
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1/ This article provides a helpful mental model for thinking about an industry's vulnerability to AI disruption. Key indicators of potential disruption below: 1. Breadth of available data 2. Availability of clearly defined SOPs 3. (Continued below)... a16z.com/where-enterprises-a…
Where Enterprises are Actually Adopting AI | Andreessen Horowitz

Where Enterprises are Actually Adopting AI | Andreessen Horowitz

AI is coming for all markets

a16z.com
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2/ ... 3. Discreteness of the outcome set 4. Measurability of ROI 5. Limited regulation (i.e. low cost of failure) 6. Impersonality of the transaction
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1/ Quick takes on $WIZEY earnings: Overall solid quarter with continued user and balance growth but recent growth has weaker vol/user. $WISE seems to be trying to hide this by no longer disaggregating rev between biz and customers, but figures can be backed out.
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3/ - XB rev +2% QoQ on a seasonally weak 4q (average of -2% in the L3Y) - Active Customer count continues steady growth (+4% QoQ, +22% YoY) driven by +26% YoY Biz growth - Customer Balances maintain +HSD QoQ growth, outpacing user growth
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4/ - Excess Interest down, likely due to lower interest rates - $WISE stopped breaking down rev between Biz & Personal; XB can be backed out, Biz rev was -1% QoQ vs -3% 4q L3Y average); Perhaps mgmt is trying to obfuscate businesses slowdown coming off two +LDD QoQ quarters
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1/ $CART's Instaleap acquisition seems both an int'l CAC lever and a defensive land-grab. There's much tech overlap, but acquiring grocer and user relationships facilitates int'l expansion. eGrocery is a density business, this acquisition provides density while boxing out rivals
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2/ The price paid should illuminate int'l CACs
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Interesting analysis of how wealth inequality is really power inequality, and is a constant tug of war between politicians and the wealthy capitalgains.thediff.co/p/me… via @byrnehobart
The Many Mistakes you can Make when Measuring Inequality

The Many Mistakes you can Make when Measuring Inequality

Are you measuring what people have, how much they make, or what they get?

capitalgains.thediff.co
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Bezos in '02 (paraphrased): "It's one thing to take data and do backward looking data mining... but this doesn't help with feedback loops. Owning the data allows for experiments with results clear within hours" Essentially, controlling data expedites learning curve progression
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Bezos labeled this as "a really big point that most people miss." Link below, ~20min mark youtube.com/watch?v=J2xGBlT0…
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Improving shortfall rates by shedding problematic clients is a phenomenal example of exploiting survivorship bias; EY should take responsibility for their shortfalls, and seek to improve their practices, rather than ignore complicated situations wsj.com/articles/inside-eys-…

Exclusive | Inside EY’s U.S. Auditing Cleanup to Reduce Shortfalls  

The Big Four accounting firm expects its rate of deficiencies to be at or below 9% in the latest inspections, down from 46% three years earlier, people familiar with the matter said.

wsj.com
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Classic example of overmanaging to the proxy
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1/4: I’ve been studying serial acquirers for a few months and I’m beginning to view hurdle rate discipline as the most crucial (& underappreciated) component of the biz model; acquirers need decentralization and strict subsidiary WACCs incentivize capital to be pushed upwards...
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3/4: The most successful serial acquirers don’t seem to be the ones who thrive operationally, but rather those with a genius at the helm, or with programmatic M&A. I suspect this boils down to what is easier to control; ops seem far more difficult to standardize than M&A.
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4/4: Plus, having 100% ownership allows these acquirers to harvest cash, growth be damned. More research & thoughts on acquirers to come in the coming months, I’m beginning to study Transdigm
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