Ex hedge fund analyst. Mostly small-caps. Mostly consumer discretionary. Mostly value. Other thoughts at times. Always opinions. Never investment advice.
Joined August 2021
- Tweets3.7K
- Following51
- Followers2.8K
- Likes199
$OI - listened to the call. A lot of detail. Actually have more company specific levers to pull than I expected. Every region/sub-region has it's own story. Interesting play once tax loss selling subsides.
$VFC - Vans guided down 2% or better in 2H. DTC is already positive with wholesale swing starting in fiscal Q4 (March) and into summer of 2027. What gives them confidence? CEO - "We're looking at orders. That's what gives us the confidence."
$OI - they've cut numbers 4 times this year. So hard to believe anything about 2027 right now (even with very low bar), and perhaps a final tax loss selling flush. I'd pick $WHR over this in the crappy industrials bracket.
$CAKE - SSS were 3% in 2023, 1% in 2024, 0.1% in 2025. Historically a low single digit comp story prior to COVID due to high AUVs/wait times. Just put up traffic driven 15.2% in Q3 vs a 0.3% prior year. Mean reversion coming soon (off much higher base) to a location near you.
$CAKE - why is this thing comping 15%? It's been around for almost 50 years, the quality has gone downhill, portions have shrank, prices have gone up.
$CAKE - why is this thing comping 15%? It's been around for almost 50 years, the quality has gone downhill, portions have shrank, prices have gone up.
$OI - Europe still a mess. Americas is fine. 2027 story now (or 2028.........or never).
$WHR - if there wasn't history, I'd look at the deck - see the y/o/y margin decline much smaller in Q4 and projected margins expansion and call a bottom. Here, it's a tougher call but it honestly wouldn't surprise me.
$WHR - ugly print and guide, but decent news on FCF (probably from running inventories down). Possible estimates get so low now for Q4 and 2027, that the bottom is close. Wouldn't rule out a bounce like $NKE - but far less belief here - deservedly so.
$WHR - no position. Stock basically straight down for 2.5 months. Surge in rates hasn't helped. Steel tariffs haven't helped. Brazil election probably doesn't help. Call me an interested observer as it gets closer and closer to a binary bet.
$WHR - no position. Stock basically straight down for 2.5 months. Surge in rates hasn't helped. Steel tariffs haven't helped. Brazil election probably doesn't help. Call me an interested observer as it gets closer and closer to a binary bet.
$WHR - just listened to conf call. Given the company's recent history, take this with a grain of salt, but certainly possible the bottom is in and margins expand from here. No debt maturities until 2028.
$BHR - Even the Company's proposed board slate is missing a certain someone. Monty NOT 4 Life!!
braemar.q4ir.com/investor/ne…
$RH. Lol. $110 to $140 in a week.
$DECK guides $7.28-$7.43 ex-tariff refund and has $9/share in cash at seasonal working capital peak. Sub $80? OK.
So housing starts and pending home sales were both pathetic. But the 10 year is pushing back toward 5% today. Will housing related catch a bid again?
$AHT - Just hope people don't let him get that easy 9.8% at $2.50 when he should be paying at least 20x that based on NAV.
$CPS - let's give it a big haircut and call it $320M of EBITDA and $875M of net debt at end of '27. 4x EV/EBITDA is $22, 5x is $39, 6x is $56. Market is now assuming a dire scenario for a company that's both gaining share and growing content $ per vehicle.
$CPS - Call it $400M of EBITDA and $800M of net debt at end of '27 based on the 2x leverage comment from JPM conference. Round up to 18.5m shares. A 3x EV/EBITDA multiple is $43, 4x $65, etc. The stock is only $26. It's 2027 in 4 months.
$AHT - this is the last time I did math on this. Since then, they've sold a bunch of hotels and paid down debt with excess proceeds. Let's just say, this thing is will a hell of a lot more than $2.50.
$AHT - there was $368M of preferred stock at 9/30/25. So $1B of NAV less $368M = $632M of "Common NAV" divided by 6.5 million shares = $97/share. Stock is $4ish. What's Monty gonna steal this thing for?
