Lamar Jackson and Duece McBride FC
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NFL TNF Week 3
Recap
Jordan Love O 224.5 Passing Yards✅
Jordan Love O 31.5 Pass Attempts✅
Bijan Robinson O 14.5 Longest Rush✅
Premium Adds:
Drake London O 5.5 Receptions✅
Christian Watson O 4.5 Receptions✅
Chris Brooks U 4.5 Rush Attempts✅
Falcons +7.5✅
Halftime Live: Bijan O 149.5 rushing yards + Chris Brooks U 1.5 Rush Attempts✅
Cashed 7 props off of one 60 minute football game. Football once again continues to eat off this page💰
NFL TNF’s BEST BET🏈
Jordan Love O 224.5 Passing Yards / 30.5 Pass Attempts
(-124 FD) / (-117 DK)
Week 3 Prop #1 & #2
Atlanta defense despite a depleted d-line has been stout against the run. Has yet to give up more than 3.4 YPC in both games and has been T5 in success rate. Rodgers in Wk1 vs ATL led the league in PROE recording 221.5 yards and 40 attempts. Bryce has been very good so far and recorded 287 in 36 attempts.
They have given up the 3rd most pass attempts so far this season.
Green Bay’s offensive line is a massive problem. No Josh Jacobs first off so the run game is poor without him and the o-line is abysmal.
Love has been pressured on nearly 44% of his drop backs so far and now their starting RT is listed out for the season. It can’t get any better, so the offense HAS to ball through the air.
Love in Wk1 faced a blitz heavy MIN defense that stuffed the run. He had 387 yards in 42 pass attempts.
Against NYJ on Wk2 in a rain environment, he recorded 145 yards with a still high number of 29 pass attempts.
I love for Love to get a ton of production through the air tonight.
CB1 in Terrell is out so I think ATL’s defense could shift to more cushion (let them drive the ball instead of deep shots), which is why I’m taking pass attempts as well.
NFL MNF’s BEST BET🏈
Dawson Knox O 7.5 Receiving Yards
(-115 MGM)
11/9 Prop #1
This Minnesota defense is insanity. They are blitzing their ass off ranked highest in the league doubling the team in second. To counter against this defense, go heavier (12 personnel) and gash them through the ground. I like Cook but the uncertainty with the 2 Q’s on the line is worrisome.
DET went heavy with Conklin, Porta, and Wright. IND with Allie-Cox, Olgetree, and Mallory. Saints with Johnson, Fant, and Delp.
This is nothing new for Buffalo to rely on multiple TEs in a game. Defense crashes on Cook and their eyes are also on Allen’s legs, I like Knox to slip out here and there and cover this line in 1-2 catches.
Recap
Kenneth Walker O 89.5 Rushing Yards✅
Javonte Williams O 69.5 Rushing Yards✅
Jordan Watkins O 24.5 Receiving Yards✅
Josh Jacobs O 14.5 Rush Attempts🚑
Emeka Egbuka O 3.5 Receptions🪝
Premium Adds:
Patrick Mahomes U 31.5 Pass Attempts✅
Jamarr Chase O 76.5 Receiving Yards✅
Denzel Boston O 39.5 Receiving Yards✅
Kenyon Sadiq O 17.5 Receiving Yards✅
Joe Milton O 23.5 Rushing Yards✅
Harold Fannin Jr. O 39.5 Receiving Yards✅
Caleb Williams O 20.5 Pass Completions✅
Baker Mayfield O 14.5 Rushing Yards❌
Jahmyr Gibbs O 129.5 Rush+Rec Yards❌
Antonio Williams O 48.5 Receiving Yards❌
Egbuka had 3 at half and couldn’t get another easy designed target. Jacobs with 4 in the first drive and gotten hurt. Easily would’ve had 18+
Good Sunday overall💰
NFL SUNDAY’s BEST BET🏈
Kenneth Walker O 89.5 Rushing Yards
(-122 FD)
Week 9 Prop #1
K9 has ran into brick walls in the last 2 games vs Seattle and Denver. It’s time for him to get back to dominating at a premiere level facing this poor rush defense. This Jets defense is extremely poor to zone rushers where K9 runs majority of his attempts from:
Zone rushers vs NYJ:
Washington 25/83, Gordon 25/103, Monagai 30/146, Gibbs 20/99
Now, the Jets are missing one of their solid run stuffers in T Sweat. This defense is giving up a significant increase of 25.7% of YPC with Sweat in and out. The Jets defense is built to break once you consistently gash on the ground posession by possession. Luckily, the Chiefs love to run heavy when they have the chance to.
NFL SNF’s BEST BET🏈
Emeka Egbuka O 3.5 Receptions
(-114 FD)
Week 9 Prop #5
We’re back on PrimeTime Egbuka. Has been money for us every single time we put coin on him the past 2 seasons. I’m respecting the TD spread and I believe this offense is finally going to have to rely on Baker’s arm for the first time in a long time. The Bears defense has reached a new level with the acquisition of DT Simmons and the return of nickel CB Gordon. The Bears run defense looked great last week and the slot funnel is no longer with Gordon back.
Coverage-wise, they’re primarily a heavy single-high defense relying a lot of Cover 1 and 3. They mixed it up a bit last week in Cover 2 and 4. Don’t know if it’s something to look into, but all of it falls in Egbuka’s hands.
He is leading the recieving room in TPRR against C1, C2, and C4.
NFL SUNDAY’s BEST BET🏈
Josh Jacobs O 14.5 Rushing Attempts
(-137 ProphetX)
Week 9 Prop #4
Get the sour taste of Jacobs from your mouths last week. It looked like he had a record-breaking 1 yard rushes that I’ve ever seen. Despite an abysmal game last week, he managed to clear this line in the 3Q finishing the whole game with 21 carries for 39 yds. I like Green Bay in this game as the underdogs. Patriots run game isn’t great and their WR room is depleted with injuries. Pack’s defense has been great recently too.
I like this offense to stay true to what they do on a normal basis with a healthy Jacobs, and that is to gash the run game. You get 21 carries for a shy 1.9 YPC, it’s only up from here.
Patriots run defense was elite last year, but they’re more middle of the pack this season as teams has been having an above average ground game week by week.
NFL SUNDAY’s BEST BET🏈
Javonte Williams O 69.5 Rushing Yards
(-131 Kalshi)
Week 9 Prop #3
We took Tuten rushing last week vs this newly tanking Colts defense. They’re without DT Buckner now so their run defense is taking an even bigger hit. This defense is allowing a ridiculous 5.3 YPC and a 52% success rate via zone rushes. Lucky for Williams today, he’s a pure zone rusher and Dallas should likely be in a positive game script for Williams to see 17+ carries.
This Dallas run game has been fairly poor this season, but they have yet to wave the flag of getting away from it.
NFL SUNDAY’s BEST BET🏈
Jordan Watkins O 24.5 Receiving Yards
(-123 DK)
Week 9 Prop #2
A surprise to literally no one, this WR room is heavily depleted with injuries. We took Watkins a couple of weeks ago vs ATL before their last week bye due to injuries. The same fellas are out including WR Kirk back on IR now and CMC is a bit banged up as well.
We’re back on Watkins who had 3 receptions 6 targets for 51 yards vs a heavy single-high defense in ATL.
He faces a Raiders defense who also runs single-high coverage at a top 10 rate in the league. The run game should flourish, but this Raiders’ defense is poor vs play action so Watkins can get this in 1-2 catches.
NFL SUNDAY’s BEST BET🏈
Kenneth Walker O 89.5 Rushing Yards
(-122 FD)
Week 9 Prop #1
K9 has ran into brick walls in the last 2 games vs Seattle and Denver. It’s time for him to get back to dominating at a premiere level facing this poor rush defense. This Jets defense is extremely poor to zone rushers where K9 runs majority of his attempts from:
Zone rushers vs NYJ:
Washington 25/83, Gordon 25/103, Monagai 30/146, Gibbs 20/99
Now, the Jets are missing one of their solid run stuffers in T Sweat. This defense is giving up a significant increase of 25.7% of YPC with Sweat in and out. The Jets defense is built to break once you consistently gash on the ground posession by possession. Luckily, the Chiefs love to run heavy when they have the chance to.
Recap
Oklahoma +7✅
Bo Jackson O 18.5 Rush Attempts❌
Jesse Legree O 115.5 Receiving Yards❌
Syracuse +3❌
The run game was working for Bo but OSU kept trying to feed through the air costs them a big double digit lead to a 3 possession loss. Legree just 90 and sits during a blowout.
We move to NFL
Recap
Ajay Mitchell O 19.5 Points✅
Robert Williams O 12.5 PR✅
Banger day today💰
NBA’s BEST BET🏀
Ajay Mitchell O 19.5 Points
(+100 Kalshi)
11/6 Prop #2
Love Ajay to get going tonight in the Cup game. This OKC team is not the same so they’re probably in a lot more tight situations than normal for this season. Facing Memphis tonight who plays at one of the fastest pace in the league can generate a ton of points for OKC as well.
Memphis is 2nd worst defending isolation, B10 defending transition, and B12 defending PnR ball-handler. Good spots for the 2 high usage guards in SGA and Ajay.
Yeah, Shai is going to get his but Ajay is relied on heavily as the #2 with Shai on the floor and #1 with Shai off the floor.
NBA’s BEST BET🏀
Ajay Mitchell O 19.5 Points
(+100 Kalshi)
11/6 Prop #2
Love Ajay to get going tonight in the Cup game. This OKC team is not the same so they’re probably in a lot more tight situations than normal for this season. Facing Memphis tonight who plays at one of the fastest pace in the league can generate a ton of points for OKC as well.
Memphis is 2nd worst defending isolation, B10 defending transition, and B12 defending PnR ball-handler. Good spots for the 2 high usage guards in SGA and Ajay.
Yeah, Shai is going to get his but Ajay is relied on heavily as the #2 with Shai on the floor and #1 with Shai off the floor.
NBA’s BEST BET🏀
Robert Williams O 12.5 PR
(-110 FD)
11/6 Prop #1
These two teams faced each other earlier in the season. Rob Will finished that game with his current season high in 21 mins and a monstrous 24 PR and 3 stocks.
Luka is playing out of his mind averaging nearly 40 PPG and this Portland defense does not need to see Clingan play at a heavy drop which he does.
HC Nori has already talked about how valuable Williams is as he can switch in PnR action. Expect that adjustment to be made tonight and I see 18 mins as the floor.
LA is giving up 56% FGM at the rim. They’re also very poor in defensive rebounding as they are ranked 5th worse in putbacks. They’re also poor defending cuts where Deni and Dame can draw tons of attentions to dish to Williams for an easy dunk/lob.
Williams had multiple lob opportunities in the previous game.
Inside Centers vs LA:
Cardwell 10 PR (13 mins)
TJD 10 PR (9 mins), CMB 7 PR (20 mins)
Isaiah Jackson 9 PR (19 mins)
Recap
Zay Flowers O 4.5 Receptions❌
Premium Adds:
Derrick Henry O 16.5 Rush Attempts✅
Justice Hill O 2.5 Receptions✅
Chris Rodriguez Jr. ATTD✅
Derrick Henry ATTD❌
Justice Hill O 13.5 Receiving Yards❌
Hella turnovers for BAL’s offense. Zay 8 designed plays and ended up with **3 CARRIES** and 3 receptions.
Literally this was suppose to be a sweep but this is JV football. I can’t make this up.
NFL TNF’s BEST BET🏈
Zay Flowers O 4.5 Receptions
(+106 DK)
Week 9 Prop #1
This offense is gonna have to find a way to feed Zay. It’s nothing new for them to scheme up design targets.
For example, this szn w/o Lamar:
2h vs TEN 2 recs
vs ATL 8 recs
vs CLE 6 recs
vs CIN 8 recs
vs BUF 0 rec
Expect this offense to rely heavy on the run where they’re likely going to get boxed and force to have to dropback with QB3 Joe. Joe’s a comfortable QB with a solid pocket but that’s a tough ask for this horrible o-line. The ball is going to come out quick where I like Hill and Zay a lot tonight. Jacksonville is zone reliant so Zay can get schemed up with a couple of screen plays and shallow routes to keep the chains from behind.
If they decide to man up, fine, Joe can hit a couple of downfield throws as the film saw this past Sunday.
Expect Zay to get involved early.
