Chokepoint Research

Michael Burry liked our work today. We launched 19 days ago from a blank page. $12/mo for top-tier research even Michael Burry likes. Less than a McDonald's Happy Meal a month lol $SPY $NVDA $QQQ chokepointresearch.substack.… Cassandra Unchained: 346,000 subscribers. Choke Point Research: 29.

$HIMS One stat: $105. That is monthly revenue per subscriber now, up 30% from $81 a year ago. Each customer pays more than ever. And 103,000 of them left anyway. The first sequential subscriber decline in the company's history. More money per head, fewer heads. That math only works one way, and it isn't up. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$SYM $WMT Twelve days to the print, and the tape still doesn't believe the backlog. $22.5 billion in backlog. Q3 revenue $720.8 million, up 21.7%. Adjusted EBITDA doubled to $95.2 million. Stock down 47% in a year. The bear case is simple: backlog isn't revenue until the robots ship. The bull case is simpler: it keeps shipping. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$HIMS $NVDA $TJX $WMT $MP Wednesday tier board. The week's queues, ranked: 1. $HIMS: the front door vs the margin. Graded in today's deep dive. 2. $NVDA: six days to the print. Memory cost is the whole test. 3. Starship: Friday, first dual catch, license still pending. 4. $TJX Tue / $WMT Wed: release valve vs crown. 5. Magnets: Jan 10 is the next date. Dec 14 is the next fix chance. Five queues. One week. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$RKLB Friday the 13th. Starship Flight 15, first try at catching both stages. The FAA still hasn't signed the license. The ship has to come back over land, which is the whole argument. And next week the FAA meets on whether Starship can fly 456 times a year. That number decides who gets to fly how often. Rocket Lab is the only listed pure-play launch name, and its whole pitch is cadence. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$MP $USAR $REMX Sixty-one days. That is what the extension bought. chokepointresearch.substack.… The clock is already running again. Next dates: January 1, the Pentagon provenance rule. January 10, the new lapse. December 14, Singapore. The April licensing never paused. Dysprosium and terbium exports still run about 50% below baseline. The pause is real. The pressure never lifted. Full grade on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$TJX $WMT Two prints, one week, same question. TJX reports Tuesday. WMT reports Wednesday. The release valve against the crown. TJX: 5,100 stores heading to 7,500, comps +4%, EPS est $1.34. WMT: EPS est $0.64 on $187.24B, online +25%. Amazon already passed Walmart on revenue. The question now is who passes whom on margin. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$TSM $NVDA $MU TSMC is studying 3D-DRAM. At Nvidia's request, per The Information. Read that slowly. The world's best logic foundry is being asked to become a memory maker, because memory is the wall and the wall is now the business. Mass production is years away, if it works at all. But the ask itself tells you where the constraint sits. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$TSLA The robot argument moved. Not whether it walks. Whether the parts can be bought. Schaeffler's humanoid order backlog hit about €400 million in Q3. Its Taicang joint factory opened October 20. The actuator assembly runs roughly half the cost of the machine. Everyone demos a robot. Almost nobody can buy the joints. That is the chokepoint. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$NVDA $MU $SNDK Six days to the print. The scenario math, one line each: Guide: $108B Street: ~$109.2B, EPS $2.48 Rubin: ~20% of data center revenue Margin trough: 71-72% in Q4, memory's fault Consensus is already above the guide. The beat has to come from the number nobody guides: memory cost. Who's got the bear case? DMs open.

$HIMS Revenue up 49%. The stock fell 17% in a day. chokepointresearch.substack.… $890.4 million in the quarter, gross margin 57% against 74% a year ago. Subscribers fell 103,000, the first sequential drop ever. Guidance cut for the third time. The pills were never the business. The front door is. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$MP $USAR The extension was the base case all along. Bessent said January 10 on September 23. Beijing's September 28 statement said the same. The law just took six weeks to catch up to the politics. So the market spent a month pricing a snapback both governments had already talked past. The date was never the surprise. The surprise is how much tape moved on it. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$WMT Walmart reports in nine days. The crown already changed hands. Amazon passed Walmart in revenue. $716.9 billion to $713.2 billion. First flip in 12 years, by $3.7 billion. The print: EPS $0.64 on $187.24 billion expected. Online sales up 25% last quarter. The $6 billion Symbotic bet is the tell on where the margin goes next. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

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TUESDAY TIER BOARD The week's queues, ranked: 1. The magnet clock, reset to January 10. The 301 exclusions died last night. 2. NVDA prints November 17. $108B guide, ~$109.2B street. 3. Starship, Friday the 13th. License pending, booster on the mount. 4. TJX, November 18. The release valve reports. 5. Memory contracts. DDR4 at a record $27.50. Watch where the queue prints.

Flight 15 has a date and a missing signature. Friday the 13th, 4:45pm CT. First try at catching both stages with the tower. Booster 22 is already on the mount. Ship 42 still has to stack. The ship-return conditions are FAA-approved. The final launch authorization is not. NOTAMs run through November 19 as backup. The license is the rocket, still. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

By popular demand, the deadline moved. The 20% off annual was supposed to end tonight. Enough people asked that we pushed it to December 1. Even Michael Burry liked our work. A full year of it costs the price of a couple large pizzas right now, 20% off through December 1: chokepointresearch.substack.…

$MU $SNDK One stat: 400%. JPMorgan puts DRAM prices up more than 400% from the start of 2024 to the end of 2026. They even gave it a name: chipflation. DDR4 chips hit $27.50 in October, a record, 9.5 times where tracking started in 2016. TrendForce still has Q4 contract prices rising 10 to 15%. The shortage is the price now. And 2027 is supposed to be the worst year of it. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$TJX The release valve reports in eight days. EPS estimate $1.34 on ~$15.85 billion. Comps up 4% last print, inventory up 12% as they buy into a flood of branded closeouts. Management calls availability exceptional. The bear case is tariffs eating the margin. The bull case is 5,100 stores heading to 7,500 and nobody else has the shelf. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$NVDA Seven days to the print. The setup in four lines: Guide: $108B Street: ~$109.2B, EPS $2.48 Last quarter: $96.2B, data center $89B Rubin: ~20% of data center revenue, $40B per gigawatt vs $25B Blackwell Beat the number and the market still asks about January capex. That is the real test. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.

$USAR First magnet sale. Ugly quarter. Revenue $3.0 million against a $13.25 million estimate. Adjusted loss $0.44 a share vs $0.19 expected. Operating loss $141.4 million. And yet: first commercial NdFeB magnets out of Stillwater, Serra Verde merged, $1.2 billion in cash. The magnet maker is real. The P&L is not, yet. Full build on Substack. Subscribe and tomorrow's lands in your inbox.