Continuous Compounding retweeted
It's not easy to make sense of all the Substacks out there.
So let me explain what each of us Asia-focused finance newsletter write about.
Continuous Compounding retweeted
I don’t know whether to be flattered or file a restraining order 🫠🫠
Inside the Raper Files: Cheap, Ignored and Ready to Re-Rate
xitter.gq/toy59496/status/208230…
I've done my best to reverse engineer the funnel used by other successful investors who I respect. But be warned some of this is my quantitative extrapolation of a qualitative mindset and is likely to be inaccurate in significant ways.
I don't think people will mind because a vast majority of it is not something that can be defined by a rule.
But rules can help to protect you against adversity.
Interestingly what I have found correlates quite closely with the actual research evidence.
You might like to suggest your own stockpedia rules or variations to this conversation.
I'm not your fiduciary, do your own due diligence.
Continuous Compounding retweeted
Buying ↗️↗️ :
GMO — Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. (TSE:3498) New → 5.17%
Dalton / NAVF — Intage Holdings Inc. (TSE:4326) New → 5.00%
Be Brave — Chofu Seisakusho Co., Ltd. (TSE:5946) New → 5.58%
Simplex — Japan Aviation Electronics Industry, Ltd. (TSE:6807) 7.54% → 10.45%
Continuous Compounding retweeted
A Japanese immunologist spent 20 years proving that the chemicals trees release into the air walk into your bloodstream, hunt down your stress hormones, and arm your immune system in ways no therapist or pharmaceutical has ever matched, and most of the data has been sitting in Japanese medical journals for two decades waiting to be translated.
His name is Qing Li.
He is a clinical professor at Nippon Medical School in Tokyo and the president of the Japanese Society of Forest Medicine. The Japanese government has been funding his research since 2004, and the body of work he has produced is the reason forest bathing is now an officially prescribed clinical therapy in Japan and Korea.
The story actually starts in 1982, when the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries coined the term shinrin-yoku to describe the practice of slow, mindful walking in a forest. They did it for a practical reason.
Japan was urbanizing fast, stress-related illness was climbing, and the country had thousands of square kilometers of forest sitting unused. The idea was to give people a reason to walk into the trees... They had no idea what was actually happening to the human body during those walks until Qing Li ran the first proper experiment in 2005.
He took twelve healthy adult men on a three-day, two-night trip to a forest park. They walked for a few hours each day. Nothing strenuous. No prescribed routes or breathing exercises. They simply walked slowly through the trees, breathing the air, looking at the forest.
Li drew blood and urine samples before the trip, on the second day, on the third day, on day seven after returning home, and again on day thirty.
The numbers that came back from the lab were not what anyone expected.
The activity of a specific type of immune cell called the natural killer cell, which is the cell your body uses to hunt down cancer cells and virus-infected cells before they can spread, had jumped by roughly 50 percent during the forest trip. The actual number of natural killer cells circulating in the bloodstream had increased significantly.
Three different anti-cancer proteins that those cells produce, called perforin, granzymes, and granulysin, had all risen sharply. And the effect did not disappear when the men went home. The immune boost was still measurable on day seven and was still partially present on day thirty.
Two hours a day in a forest had upgraded the immune system for a full month.
Li ran the same experiment with women a year later and found nearly identical results. Then he ran it with a control group who took a three-day trip through an urban area with the same amount of walking, the same hotel quality, and the same diet.
The urban group showed no measurable change in natural killer cell activity at all. The forest was doing the work, not the vacation.
The mechanism turned out to be a class of airborne molecules called phytoncides. Trees produce these compounds to defend themselves against insects, bacteria, and fungi. Pine, cedar, oak, and cypress trees release them in particularly large amounts, especially in warmer weather and after rainfall.
When you walk through a forest, you are inhaling those molecules into your lungs and absorbing them through your skin, and once inside your body they appear to directly stimulate the production and activity of the very immune cells Li was measuring in his lab.
Roughly 50 percent of the health benefit of a forest walk, according to Li's data, comes from the chemistry of the air itself. The other half comes from what the forest is doing to your nervous system.
This is where it stops being only about the immune system and starts being about stress.
A separate Japanese research team measured cortisol, the body's main stress hormone, in 84 participants across 35 different forest sites. They drew samples before and after a 30-minute walk in each forest and compared them to control walks in matched urban environments. The cortisol levels of the people who walked in the forest were lower than the cortisol levels of the people who walked in the city by a significant margin. Their heart rates were lower. Their blood pressure was lower.
The activity of their parasympathetic nervous system, which is the part responsible for rest and recovery, had gone up. The activity of their sympathetic nervous system, which is the part that drives fight or flight, had gone down.
Then a researcher at the University of Michigan named MaryCarol Hunter ran the cleanest version of this experiment ever done. She recruited participants from a city and told them to take a nature pill three times a week for eight weeks.
They were free to choose the time, the place, and the duration of the nature experience, as long as it was outside, in daylight, and free of phones, conversations, and aerobic exercise. They sent her saliva samples before and after each session so she could measure cortisol changes accurately and rule out the normal daily drop in stress hormones that happens to everyone.
The result was that participants experienced a 21.3 percent drop in cortisol per hour spent in nature, with the biggest payoff happening between minutes 20 and 30 of the walk.
After that, the cortisol kept dropping, but more slowly. The threshold dose for measurable stress relief was just 20 minutes outside in something that looked and felt like nature.
What none of this means is that nature is a substitute for therapy or for medication when someone genuinely needs them. Therapy treats different things than a walk does, and Li himself has been careful in interviews to call forest bathing a complementary intervention rather than a replacement for clinical care.
But what the research has settled is that the human body has a physiological response to being among trees that operates on the same biological systems modern medicine is trying to reach with drugs and clinical protocols, and that response is fast, measurable, and free.
The strangest part of Li's work is the implication he keeps repeating in interviews. The average person now spends more than 90 percent of their life indoors. Their cortisol stays elevated. Their natural killer cells stay sluggish.
Their parasympathetic nervous system rarely gets a chance to take over. The system that was tuned by millions of years of life under a canopy of trees is being asked to run permanently inside a box made of drywall and screens.
Your body has not forgotten what it is supposed to do in a forest. It is waiting for you to walk into one.
Continuous Compounding retweeted
Dnegs mansplainifesting followed by @ChidwickStephen’s “congrats” might be my Moment of the Summer so far. 😂
Continuous Compounding retweeted
Giles Capital Weekly - Week 24
gilescapital.substack.com/p/…
Great write-ups & articles from:
@rebound_capital
@KarstResearch
@valueb9b
@WolfOfOakville
@ppinvest
@8percentpa
@CompoundingUp
@marginofwisdom
@acidinvestments
@ghginvest
@HatedMoats
@heavymoatinvestments
@vitaliyk
+more!
Continuous Compounding retweeted
I sat down with Taiwanese investor @DaBao_ in his first-ever recorded video interview
Key takeaways:
- The Taiwanese stock market is becoming overheated
- He likes companies that offer mission-critical services
- TSMC's story is intact
- The Taiwan invasion threat is overblown
Continuous Compounding retweeted
Added 67 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 2):
@__MattLindsay (watchlist) - $DOM.L, $ROCK-B.CO, $SNWV, $FRAS.L
@Muzzlebuster - $TEA.AX, $MELI (overview)
@BlokeOak57182 - $RGL.L (update)
@whirlybard - $LIB.V
@ChrisDeMuthJr - $RGR
@CompoundingUp - $4465.T (overview)
Continuous Compounding retweeted
New writeup on the 'stack (free like usual). Nippon Carbon (5302) isn’t deep value, but it’s interesting: ~1x book, ~4.2% yield, and a first buyback in 10+ years. Core biz = fine carbon + electrodes; upside = high-margin SiC fiber (NGS JV w/ GE/Safran) tied to CMC jet engines.
Continuous Compounding retweeted
🦔 Meta is paying $6.5 billion extra in interest to keep $27 billion in AI infrastructure debt off its balance sheet. They're using something called conduit financing, where a special purpose vehicle borrows the money, builds the data centers, and leases everything back to Meta. On paper, Meta is just a customer making lease payments, not a debtor.
Oracle is doing the same thing at even larger scale: $38 billion for two data centers through Vantage, part of its $500 billion Stargate partnership with OpenAI. xAI raised $20 billion through a similar structure, with Nvidia contributing $2 billion in equity while also being the hardware supplier.
The circular financing is incredibly dizzying. Nvidia invests in CoreWeave. CoreWeave uses that capital to buy Nvidia GPUs. CoreWeave leases capacity to Microsoft and OpenAI. Their revenues support the lease payments. Nvidia reports revenue from the chip sales and marks up its CoreWeave investment. Everyone's balance sheet looks clean.
My Take
Some analysts are comparing this to subprime-era tactics where firms shifted risk off their books to reassure investors. The structures are legal and the accounting is technically compliant, but the effect is the same: hundreds of billions in obligations that don't show up as debt in the traditional sense.
The whole thing depends on AI eventually generating enough revenue to justify the infrastructure costs. Moody's flagged that Oracle's data centers rely heavily on OpenAI, which won't be profitable until 2029. If AI monetization disappoints, we'll find out whether bondholders have secured claims on essential infrastructure or whether they're functionally unsecured creditors of overleveraged single-purpose entities whose assets are worth less than the outstanding debt.
I keep coming back to the same question with all of this: what happens when the music stops? The conduit structures haven't been stress-tested. The hyperscalers are profitable now, but these are 20+ year obligations built on assumptions about AI demand that haven't been proven. If custom silicon undercuts Nvidia demand or the revenue never materializes, a lot of people are going to discover that the risk they thought was somewhere else was actually right where they were standing.
Hedgie🤗
Continuous Compounding retweeted
Isamu Paint (4624) - A Dirt cheap double net-net I wrote up today. A very cheap name with 30 years of consistent profitability. Free to read on the 'Stack like usual. It's a basket sized position for me. Small and illiquid. Hikari Tsushin owns a tiny amount (2.1%)
Continuous Compounding retweeted
Public service announcement: I’ve set up a directory for finance-related Substack newsletters.
Let me know if you have any additional publications you would like me to add!
Continuous Compounding retweeted
That's a lot of new followers thanks to @CDInewsletter !
So, Hi, I am French living in Spain, and for French stocks, I focus on a few nano caps that offer me value and quality and that I hold almost like if they are private companies.
I went into UK and Euro smalls a lot too, Portugal, Italy, Germany.
In general I look at global emerging markets more and more as I find great value and quality there.
@stonkmetal is a german that is going into French quality companies a lot, as well as @FoxCastlehold who is a English/French specialised in French quality.
Continuous Compounding retweeted
This photo popped up today. July 2015. My final day teaching at a high school in rural Japan. Exactly 10 years ago.
I look like the leader of a totalitarian regime who’s declaring a Great Leap Forward to reduce wheat prices.
In reality, I was asked to give a farewell speech in Japanese to 1,200 students and 120 staff… inside a gymnasium that was 45°C. No air con. Two sad little fans.
It was one of the most nerve-wracking things I’ve ever done and it quickly turned absurd.
As I droned on for 15 minutes about how rural Japan had made me a better man, students were quite literally fainting and being carried out on stretchers mid-speech.
Not from my questionable Japanese, thankfully, but from the sauna-like heat within the gym.
It was utterly surreal and I was encouraged to keep talking as half a dozen teenagers were calmly dragged away by the teaching staff. It certainly added to the dictatorship vibe.
All in all, it was a strangely fitting send-off after three wildly unpredictable years working in a Japanese school.
Best of luck to everyone arriving in Japan this week on the JET Programme. You’re in for one hell of an adventure if you make the most of it.
Continuous Compounding retweeted
The CFA Institute is no longer the outstanding organization it was when I joined upon earning my charter 31 years ago. If you are a CFA charterholder and have not yet voted your proxy (deadline this Monday the 21st at noon Eastern) or may consider changing your vote, or are simply interested in an opinion as to how a once-great advocate for financial education, advocacy and ethics is failing a large proportion of its membership, please read on. Please also resend this message.
I’ll get to the important proxy vote and bad governance on display shortly, which I hope all charterholders take the time to vote, but first, many likely saw the CFA Institute’s Chief Marketing Officer “allegedly” embezzled nearly $5 million from the Institute from 2016 to 2024, including $150k for an engagement ring, and another $1 million from another employer. He was indicted on June 23 by the Manhattan DA. Despite immediate media coverage, the institute waited more than two weeks to address the disaster with its membership and on July 8 finally sent an incredibly tone-deaf email update from its President and CEO, Margaret Franklin, CFA, paid $1.4 million compensation by the Institute in 2024. The accused embezzling CMO was earning $500k annually. The message took zero accountability, other than suggesting it would do better.
As an institution that holds itself out as an exemplar of ethics, integrity, and that administers the CFA examination program, which focuses on accounting, financial statement analysis and ethics, among other subject matter, a failure to detect fraud over eight years is beyond a financial-controls black eye. It serves to destroy the CFA brand, already under assault from the way the organization sitting atop the membership and local member societies is managed and governed.
The CFA membership received another email message from President and CEO Franklin three days later on July 11 which encouraged the members to vote their proxies. They need a quorum. Franklin is an infrequent direct communicator. I find only a New-Year’s message over the past two years from her in my inbox. Franklin’s urge to vote notes, “By voting, you and or your colleagues around the world will be electing a chair, vice chair, and governors to serve on the Board, and additional proposals related to Board governance.”
The “additional proposals” the President and CEO FAILS TO DISCUSS are bylaw changes serving to grotesquely strip the membership and local societies of representation. The members and societies are the bedrock of the organization and for whom the President and CEO serves, and this year’s proxy initiatives are a perfect illustration of governance gone haywire. The proposals are an embarrassment to the Institute but more importantly to all 211,000 CFA charterholders globally.
Specifically, proposals 1a, 1c, and 1d shift the election of the Chair and Vice Chair from the membership to the current CFA Institute Board, concentrating power within the Board and diluting the perpetually diminished role that members and societies play in shaping the direction of their global association. The proposals erode membership democracy, weakening transparency and member engagement in governance decisions. I voted AGAINST.
Proposal 1e merges the Nominating and Governance Committees, restricting its composition to only current Governors. This removes multiple non-Governor perspectives, including two from the membership’s elected Presidents Council Representatives, PCRs. It is obscene that the current Board would introduce a proposal to self-select nominees to serve on the Board. Of course a one-sided, like-minded Board will work to perpetuate itself. Stunning. Between the four proposals the Board nominates itself and solely elects its Chair and Vice Chair. I voted AGAINST. 1/3
Continuous Compounding retweeted
One of the coolest things about the retired 🇯🇵 Japanese Hedge Fund Legend Tatsuro Kiyohara who 93x-ed his fund is that hes become an open book and even openly shared specifics on how he screens for ideas on the Japan company Handbook (The Japanese Value Line)👇
P/E Ratio:
He is willing to consider investing with varying levels of PE multiples depending on the business (which mostly comes down to quality, keep in mind this is a broad brush and I'm sure there’s been exceptions)
business has a high market share with a global niche: anything under P/E of 20 times
If the market share isn't that high but has many credible customers:
anything under P/E of 15 times.
Small/Mid Real Estate Companies:
anything under 10 times. (Which is quite specific but remember this was his bread and butter)
Subcontractor businesses (i'm guessing also things like tier 2 suppliers) with high customer concentration: anything under 7 times P/E.
Forecasts:
Puts more importance on looking at the 2nd-year forecasts. Stock will tend to reflect next year’s forecast. Also would look at P/E Ratio based on the 2nd year as well.
Major Shareholders:
Understanding who the largest shareholders are is important. He especially focuses on how much the founder and the founder's family owns. This goes back to what was discussed earlier but there is a huge inheritance tax involved when the founder/owner dies. Which the beneficiary will have to pay for. This in turn becomes a reason for the stock price to move i.e. they might have to sell shares to raise cash on the open market OR they might get the company to repurchase the share (which could actually be a positive!)
Equity ratio and market cap:
Pretty vanilla here but making sure the company has enough of a cushion to avoid any kind of dilution. This will start to matter even more in a downturn. He also looks at the market cap to calculate the 'net cash ratio' which is simply net cash/ Market cap.
Share issuance and capital structure:
Looks if a company has issued equity for financing in the past. Generally looking for good cash flow management, if they have been issuing shares it’s not ruled out immediately but needs to be noted. There could also be an issue with governance.
What he ignores:
everything else you can ignore. (dividend, price chart etc)




































