Conditional Markets built powered by IMD
Joined December 2024
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Spent the whole weekend trying to fix the liquidity on Conditionals.
Probability markets would need 4 pools and most of the markets start out empty so i designed a plan for $IMD liquidity
v1 original liquidity works, but new markets start empty and money sits idle. 🧵
You can read the full plan here
Some constraints but we plan to implement them by next week
Create markets for it
And hope to implement them fully with $IMD by next week and create a few markets and seed them with liquidity
conditionals-bay.vercel.app/…
Liquidity comes from a shared vault. Deposit $IMD once, it funds markets with a capped, known worst-case loss and earns 1% of every trade.
To fix this 1 $IMD backs both worlds, and an LMSR market maker gives every market a price from the first trade. Buy or sell any time before close.
The problem is every market is 4 separate pots of $IMD . A new one has no price, one-sided bets get refunded, and you can't exit until the oracle answers.
There is no conditionals token for now . Everything is built and powered by $IMD , do not fall for any scams .
$IMD powers conditionals and 2% fees are collected and burned , The outcomes are also judged by $IMD oracle so there would be no manipulations . Conditionals is a prediction market for conditional probabilities. We would be dropping a white paper soon explaining in depth.
Conditionals is live on Robinhood Chain 🔀
Prediction markets that ask "if X happens, will Y?" For example: "if the Clarity Act passes, will ETH reach $5k?"
The bets are in IMD, and the IMD oracle settles every market. Launched through the IMD swarm
conditionals-bay.vercel.app
Conditionals is live on Robinhood Chain 🔀
Prediction markets that ask "if X happens, will Y?" For example: "if the Clarity Act passes, will ETH reach $5k?"
The bets are in IMD, and the IMD oracle settles every market. Launched through the IMD swarm
conditionals-bay.vercel.app
1. Go to conditionals-bay.vercel.app and connect your wallet
2. Pick a market, or create one
3. Stake IMD on YES or NO, in the world where X happens or the one where it doesn't
4. The IMD oracle answers both questions
5. Winners claim.The world that didn't happen is refunded in full
