Corey

10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT TNF W8: CAR v GB. 52°F, No Wind/Rain. 1) The Packers welcomed back Josh Jacobs last week against The Lions, where he played 52% of snaps and logged 11 attempts for 36 yards. The Packers will be without two starting offensive lineman in C Rhyan and RG Glover. This is a problematic start for an up-the-gut rusher in Jacobs. 2) The Panthers rush defense is posting the 2nd lowest STUFF% at just 15.9%, while also ranking B5 in OPP Explosive Rate, Success Rate, and YPC -- which is dead last at 5.13. Unsure why this is, but offense's that featured two RBs with 10+ carries were also the only one's to have a >4 YPC RB vs CAR: - Buccs: Irving 24-106 (4.4), Gainwell 14-88 (6.3) - Falcons: Bijan 16-75 (4.5), BRob 11-51 (4.6) - Bears: Swift 18-124 (6.9), Monangai 10-100 (10) 3) Coverage wise, The Panthers are much stronger. They have forced the 2nd lowest average Time-To-Throw (TTT) of 2.43s, which is not only indicative of high pressure (6th), yet also at limiting deep shots (5th). This is a tough matchup for a Green Bay team that is 3rd in Deep Throw Rate. 4) Green Bay is expected to have both their deep shot guys of Golden and Watson available for tonight. The duo each notch >70% of their routes out wide, while Carolina does allow the 4th highest TPRR to outside receivers. They just gave up 43 Points to Tampa Bay, the 2nd time this season they have given up 40+ Pts. 5) Overall, Panthers are running the highest rate of single safety coverage. Jordan Love is one of three QBs to log 1000+ passing yards against 1-HI, though has a poor 3-3 TD/INT ratio. He has faced two teams this season Top 5 in Deep Throw Rate: - 197 Yds vs Buccaneers - 145 Yds vs Jets These are the only two games he went under. His last three weeks (DET, DAL, CHI) are all B5 in the same category. 6) Panthers offense is healthy and coming off it's worst scoring output of the year. Until that point, Bryce Young had thrown for 280+ passing yards in every game. This also came with a 30+ yard completion in every game... 7) Packers' coverage defense shares the same strengths as Carolina, ranking 1st in Deep Throw Rate and 7th in Time to Throw. Young still struggles when facing pressure, with a low 32% completion rate and 1-2 TD/INT rate. 8) Where The Packers' coverage is targeted is much different, as they are Top 5 in 2-HI safety. This has came with above average target rates to RBs. Seen this position group have success: - Jahmyr Gibbs 5 Rec, 27 Yds - D’Andre Swift 4-30 - Roschon Johnson 5-34 - Kenneth Gainwell 2-22 - Bijan Robinson 2-19 - Breece Hall 5-63 Chuba Hubbard has ran >84% of snaps in all three Carolina games that ended within 3 scores. 9/10) KICKERS, D/ST & TRENDS! The Packers are giving up just 1 FGA per game this season, which of course is first in the league. Through their 7 games, only two kickers (Folk, Bates) have notched multiple FGA -- each with 2. Cowboys covered their spread on Monday Night, moving primetime (TNF/MNF) favorites to just 4-9 on the year. As you could imagine with two defenses that limit deep shots, the touchdowns they do allow are much shorter; Both rank B10 in RedZone scores allowed per game.