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Economics & Finance | Crypto DM For FX Liquidity Solutions & Crypto OTC

Joined January 2014
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1/14 Most $MANCER posts reduce the thesis to “Robinhood Chain + low market cap.” That misses the point. The real question is whether Mancer can become the execution layer users, wallets and apps rely on across the chain. Here is the actual thesis. 🧵
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Larping is at an all time high.
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If you haven't figured it out by now....@cz_binance is still the Binance CEO.
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5.5B stolen, major stocks down 10-20%+ and BTC only dips to 78k. We're so back 🚀
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Cryptic retweeted
ok safe to say binance is pwned The biggest assets were approximately: • 1.615B USDT • 62.6M RLUSD • 29,934 wBETH • 11,372 XAUt • 6.19M UNI • 198.4M ENA • 7.175T PEPE • 27.8M USD1 • 2.26M LINK • 127,853 AAVE about $2.5B at the explorer’s prices. 1. The attacker deployed a delegate contract, 0x63e842b0...73e9c6fAe, from the relayer at 15:59 UTC. 2. About four hours later, the relayer submitted an EIP-7702 authorization transaction That installed the malicious 7702 delegate code on Binance 14. 3. The relayer then made a call to Binance 14, executing the delegate code, and transferring Binance 14’s ETH and token balances. 4. The calldata is labeled sweep(address, address[]). The second argument is a list of recognizable token-contract addresses plus the zero-address (eth). 5. The same relayer later used the same delegate to move 780M USDC from Binance Hot Wallet 34 into the same pool • The relayer 0x7C... was funded by three Tornado Cash 0.1 ETH withdrawals over the prior two days. • The same pool also received 28,005.6 ETH from Binance 16 24 seconds after the main sweep. • The pool then forwarded 195,460 ETH to a fresh, unlabeled EOA • That EOA has only one transaction and currently holds the 195,460 ETH. What's a bit unclear is why the relayer was needed in the first place. If they had the private keys to the Binance wallets, they could have just sent the assets out in an atomic bundle without needing a relayer at all. So it seems likely that they didn't have the private keys and instead just had the 7702 auth signatures, which must have been phished somehow. I think we can go ahead and assume DPRK.
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How about next week?
90k BTC this week imo
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The Touch Grass iOS app is done. Here’s a first look. We’re submitting it to the App Store review very soon. Once Apple gives the green light, anyone with an iPhone can walk outside and start catching stocks, no wallet needed. iPhone people, start stretching your legs. Touch Grass is about to go global.
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$30 would put NEAR near a $39.3B market cap at today's supply. That's my stronger bull scenario: Intents becomes widely used infrastructure and NEAR's AI products gain meaningful adoption. Future issuance changes the math, but those are the milestones I'd watch—not just the chart.
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There are real risks: competition, dilution and security. DefiLlama records a ~$3.8M Intents incident on Oct 1. But the opportunity is clear: NEAR can serve activity across multiple chains. That's why $20 is a thesis worth taking seriously. Execution decides whether it gets there.
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The investment question is whether that activity benefits NEAR holders. The coin pays network fees and secures the blockchain through staking. Captured Intents revenue also funds NEAR buybacks. That gives the token a connection to usage beyond people simply buying the AI narrative.
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$20 is the bull case I'm interested in. From roughly $6, that's about 3.3x. The thesis: more wallets route swaps through NEAR, revenue grows, and buybacks strengthen demand for the coin. AI adoption could add another source of growth. The investment case already has a working product.
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ZEC gives us a useful reference point: a ~$21.6B valuation. At that same market cap, NEAR would trade around $16.50 using today's supply. My $20 thesis implies ~$26.2B. About 21% above that ZEC valuation. The question is whether NEAR's growing role across crypto can justify that premium.
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Supply matters just as much. About 1.309B NEAR circulate. There's no fixed maximum, and maximum annual issuance is 2.5% before fee burns. A reduction toward 1.6% is proposed, not implemented. “Fully unlocked” doesn't mean supply stops growing. Holders still need to account for dilution.
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Keep the numbers straight: Over those 30 days, Intents generated ~$8.02M in fees, but ~$2.18M in captured revenue. Billions in swap volume aren't billions in earnings. Buybacks aren't burns either. The revenue is real, but it still needs to grow substantially to support the thesis.
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Say you have Bitcoin but want dollars on another network. Normally, that can mean exchanges, bridges and several transactions. With NEAR Intents, you ask for the outcome. Market makers compete to fill it. The complicated parts still exist. You just handle fewer of them yourself.
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Is anyone actually using this? DefiLlama's Oct 11 snapshot shows NEAR Intents processed ~$4.76B in swaps over 30 days. Brave and Ledger have integrated it. That's an important route to adoption: reaching people through wallets they already use, rather than asking them to start over.
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There's a privacy component too. Confidential Intents lets users transact through a private execution environment instead of exposing everything publicly. It uses a private shard and protected hardware, with added trust assumptions. Useful functionality. Not a promise of zero risk.
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The AI angle fits that ambition. NEAR AI Cloud runs models inside protected hardware designed to keep prompts private. The longer-term goal is software that can use apps, pay and trade on your behalf. Illia also co-authored the original Transformer paper. The AI background is real.
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Chain Signatures takes this further. It lets a NEAR account or app authorize transactions on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and other networks, using a group of independent signing operators. NEAR can serve activity across those networks without needing everyone to abandon them.
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Crypto still makes people figure out wallets, networks and bridges just to use an app. NEAR is building around a simple idea: most people shouldn't need to understand any of that. If it gets this right, it could power a lot of crypto activity without users ever seeing its name.
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First, what is NEAR? A blockchain where developers build apps for payments, trading, games and more. It splits work across parallel sections called shards to scale. Founded by Illia Polosukhin and Alex Skidanov in 2018, it's an established project with a much broader ambition now.
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