科技与投资 深度访谈😼 | Deep dives on Tech & Investing💰
Boston, MA
Joined September 2020
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讲真我挺喜欢这次特斯拉财报的，我今天也没听出老马故意藏着掖着打压特斯拉的前景。
看看令人惊喜的一些数据，这是真正的signal：
-75%新车FSD北美订阅率！FSD推动卖车，订单爆炸。
-无监督里程指数级增长！
-奥斯汀Cybercab上线一个月量翻了10倍，在未来几个月Robotaxi将达到百万辆（讲真我都怕是不是听错了😂，但Ashok原话是我们没看到scale有什么障碍，然还需要做工作。我们确实看到一条清晰路径，能在未来几个月内规模化到数百万辆车，计划先密集铺 Austin，再扩到 Dallas 等城市，并逐步延长运营时间、上高速等）
-预计 2027 年 Q2 左右，可以让首批客户车辆加入 Robotaxi 车队。
-2027 Q3–Q4 Robotaxi 可能成为重要收入及盈利来源
这段时间看到太多投资者把过多关注点放在特斯拉SpaceX合并，因为股价横盘弃 $tesla如敝履。忘记了原来自己为什么投资特斯拉的底层逻辑，忽视了特斯拉正在发生质变，AI收入变现终于进入了快车道。
我不是说合并完全不行，合并与否是个独立的问题，要看价格的诚意。合并与否和特斯拉是否能scale Robotaxi，能否独立成功无关。
CyberCat retweeted
12 straight quarters of accelerating growth 🚀 @Lemonade_Inc’s Q3 2026 results are in!
Highlights (Y/Y)
🚀 12th consecutive quarters of accelerating IFP growth
🚀 IFP reached $1.55 Billion (+34%)
🚀 Revenue grew 73% to $336M
🚀 Record Gross Profit of $118M (+48%)
🚀 3.52M customers (+23%)
🚀 $27M adj. Free Cash Flow → 6th consecutive positive quarter
🚀 $1.2 Billion in cash + investments
Car picking up speed
✅ Car IFP grew 63% Y/Y
✅ Now in 14 states, covering more than half the U.S. population
✅ Autonomous Car for Tesla FSD now in 6 states
Lemonade OS
✅ >2.5x the premium base, with fewer employees than four years ago
✅ 25 new product-geography combinations launched this year
✅ Renters now available nationwide!
✅ Native support for personal AI agents coming soon
✅ Live demos of Lemonade OS at Investor Day, Nov 17
Up next
⬆️ Guiding to our first-ever positive adj. EBITDA quarter in Q4!
⬆️ Reiterating our expectation of a full year of positive adj. EBITDA in 2027
⬆️ Raising FY revenue and gross earned premium guidance
CyberCat retweeted
Listen in as our CEO and founder @lefkofsky recaps Q3 at Tempus ⬇️
Access the Q3 shareholder letter here: tempus.co/4zmfIdj
CyberCat retweeted
@Lemonade_Inc Renters is now available nationwide.
Minnesota went live today, completing all 50 states.
👀 The Governor of Florida is giving $LMND a shout-out!
Yes, other insurers will eventually follow, but we know who’s poised to become the No. 1 insurer for autonomous vehicles.
未来几个月达到百万Robotaxi 财报原文出处：
Ashok：是的。在可预见的未来，它将能够继续扩展。我们在这条路上没有看到任何障碍。当然，还需要做一些工作。我们确实看到一条清晰的路径，可以在未来几个月内扩展到百万辆车辆。
很可惜Ashok和老马没有剖析几个月达到百万辆Robotaxi的路径，但我觉得应该是通过继续扩 Cybercab/Model Y 运营车队 + 激活已有特斯拉车主车队（软件解锁后） 多城市扩张，其中27 Q2将车主的车加入车队是一个重要里程碑。
另外咱们打点折扣，我的expectation是明年年底30万辆就算完成任务。
Ashok：Yes. It will be able to continue the scaling for the foreseeable future. We do not see any hurdles along the way. Obviously, there is work required. We do see a clear path towards scaling to millions of vehicles over the next several months.
CyberCat retweeted
Had an annoying situation with Progressive insurance this morning, had to end up calling in. I was just simply trying to change my address and it prompted a phone call...
The address has increased my Cybertruck insurance another $20 a month, after increasing $10 a month on my renewal, just last month. I was in the low $140 range when this policy started. Now it was up to $183.
I decided to shop, and went to give @Lemonade_Inc a try..
Y'all... Under $108 a month.
I'm so in.
Check your insurance rate over at Lemonade guys. (This is not an ad, but a testimonial. I was not paid by Lemonade at all, they could not afford me at this rate😬)
老马希望特斯拉 & SpaceX合并是明牌。特斯拉 和 spacex能在长期产生 1+1> 2的效果吗，probably yes。
但是作为特斯拉股东，我个人更希望特斯拉能先取得FSD / Robotaxi 规模化扩张和商业化的阶段性成功，这是股东们投票老马薪酬计划的重要deliverable，毕竟特斯拉前面的饼也已经够多了，再多也怕噎着。我不觉得合并是now or never的一件事，来日方长。不知道大家怎么看？
Elon Musk today on a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla:
"Both Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees at the request of shareholders. Because I'm a conflicted party I can't be in on these discussions. I don't think we should assume that a merger is a certainty. Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes. But at the end of the day, shareholders have to be supportive of this. The special committees have not reached an agreement on any transaction, and it doesn't mean they will, but there is a lot of be gained from cooperating on SI, chip design, robots, mass or orbit, connectivity. I think it would be a good idea."