Fut/Opt Trader | SVP - Market Strategist | Founder of the Alpha Trade | Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for every investor

Lincoln, NE
Joined March 2011
Today’s Oct 28th devotional… only the good Lord himself writes these type of reminders. With everything going on, he is always present and always willing to give us reminders, we just have to slow down to notice. Wow. 🙏🏼
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It’s a beautiful day to be alive! Today is going to be a good day.
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☕✨ Coffee with Alpha video and commentary just dropped. 🌽🌱🌾🐂📊 Hopefully be back out tomorrow, knock on wood. 🙏🏼 🔹 Members: check your inbox (and spam, just in case). 👀 🚨 Not in yet? 1 month free. No excuses. 📲 Hit the link and see what's waiting for you this morning. 👇 #AlphaTrade 📈 #harvest26 lakefrontfutures.com/alpha-t… 🌽🌱🌾🇺🇸
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Heavenly Father, your word says in 3 John 1:2 that you wish above all things that I would prosper and be in health, even as my soul prospers. I'm holding on to that this morning, because yesterday was hard. The MRI came back worse than any of us expected, and I'm tired. Tired in my body, tired in my mind, tired of carrying news like this. You already know that. You know every thought before I think it, every prayer before I pray it, every intention of my heart. I want to be well again, Lord, and I'm not ashamed to ask. Your son Jesus touched the sick and they were healed on the spot. Blind eyes opened, lame men walked, a woman who'd suffered for twelve years was made whole in a moment. Your power hasn't shrunk since then. Nothing on my scan is bigger than you. So I'm asking for healing, and I'm asking for strength to keep going while I wait for it. Please strengthen the people caring for me. They're carrying this too, more than they let on. Give them rest when they're worn down, peace when they're afraid, and a joy that doesn't rise and fall with test results. Bless them for the way they love me. Don't let this season be wasted. Use it. Let me be an encouragement to people fighting battles far bigger than mine. Give me a positive attitude no matter what the next report says, not a forced smile, but real hope rooted in who you are. Because you are good. You have been good, and you will be good. So why would I worry? I don't need to. You are ever present, right here in this room and every step of this journey. I give you my body, my fears, my family, and my future. And I lift up everyone around me this morning. In the nightly and power name of our risen savior, Jesus Christ, Amen. #dailyprayer✝️
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3 John 1:2 🙏🏼
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I’ve had better days. Everything I’ve been dealing with on my pancreas over the last 3 months has gotten worse than expected. The pseudocysts are much larger and it’s pushing into my stomach, my duct inside my pancreas has been severed which is causing the increase in size of the pseudocysts because of fluid leaks. Because of the severity, the doctors didn’t want to waste anytime and I need surgery tomorrow to place stints inside my pancreas and another inside my stomach to drain fluid. Obviously, this isn’t what I wanted. This whole ordeal is starting to wear on me but my faith has kept me strong. Pray me, pray for the doctors steady hands tomorrow, pray for continued answers, and pray for peace and quick recovery.
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Heavenly Father, this Tuesday morning I come to you with the words of your son still ringing true: "I have told you these things, so that in me you may have peace. In this world you will have trouble. But take heart! I have overcome the world." Jesus never promised me a life without trouble. He promised me himself in the middle of it. And this has been trouble, Lord. It has been a long road, longer than I expected, with more waiting rooms and more waiting than I thought I could carry. I'm not out of the woods yet, and some mornings my mind runs ahead of me into every "what if" it can find. Today is one of those days. The MRI is in front of me and the results are approaching and I confess my thoughts want to camp out in the space between, imagining the worst. Forgive me for the times I've let fear speak louder than your faithfulness. You have never once left me alone on this road. Not in the tremendous pain, not in the long nights, not in the quiet moments when I didn't have words to pray. So I ask you plainly: be with me today. Go before me into that conversation with the doctor. Let the report be good, Lord, and I ask that with my whole heart. But whatever I hear, let me hear it with you beside me. Quiet my anxious mind the way you always have. Give me that peace that doesn't make sense on paper, the kind that only comes from being in you. Help me take heart, not because I know how this ends, but because I know who has already overcome. The world's trouble doesn't get the final word. You do. I place this day, this report, and this body in your hands. I trust you with all of it. In Jesus' name, Amen. #dailyprayer✝️
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John 16:33 🙏🏼
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🌽 #Corn harvest jumped 16 pts to 60% but trails the 66% five-year average; condition 56% good/excellent, unchanged. 🌱 #Soybeans 79% harvested (64% a week ago, 77% avg) 🌾 Winter #Wheat 76% planted (77% avg), 53% emerged; ☁️ #Cotton 52% harvested (45% avg), sorghum 56% (69% avg). 🔹 Topsoil short/very short rose to 38% from 34%; c 🔸 Corn laggards Michigan 28%, Ohio and Pennsylvania 35%.
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Seasonal outlook for Brazil. 🇧🇷 🌱
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US PRODUCERS TO NOTE. #cmdtyView Chart: Brazilian Soybean Production v USD/BRL A lot of overnight impact on the US Ag markets following the Brazilian elections. We're fielding numerous calls from our South American & US producer clients. Here's the best why I can break it down. What it means for Brazilian producers: 🇧🇷 Near term it is a windfall in reais; longer term it raises the cost of the next crop and the risk around Brazil's finances. 🔹 Local price up even as Chicago falls. Brazil's farm price is roughly (CBOT + port premium) x the exchange rate. At constant dollar prices, is roughly +9.4% in reais; Conab's national average was R$139.24 per 60-kg bag in the Oct 5-9 week, after the strong-real swing cut it 2%; a similar move in reverse would put it near R$149. 🔹 Expect heavier selling. With roughly 61% of the new crop and about 32.5 MMT of old crop still unpriced, farmers who held out while the real was strong now have a reason to sell and lock forward. More Brazilian offers usually means weaker Paranaguá premiums, which gives back part of the currency gain. 🔹 Inputs get dearer. Fertilizer, chemicals and much farm debt are priced in dollars. The 2026/27 crop is mostly bought, so the cost hit lands on 2027/28 input purchases and barter deals. 🔹 Area response is slow. Planting is past 30%, so this crop is set. The currency matters for 2027/28 area decisions next winter, and only if it holds. 🔹 Fiscal risk cuts both ways. If the selloff reflects deficit fears, higher Brazilian interest rates raise financing costs for farmers who are already leveraged. What it means for US producers: 🇺🇸 A weaker real is bearish for US soybeans: it lowers the dollar price at which Brazil is willing to sell, and Brazil is the price-setter for world exports. 🔸 The window is now, not spring. US exports run heavy September through January; Brazil's harvest takes over from February. US commitments are strong (963 mil. bu, +430 mil. y/y), so old business is not the issue. The risk is new sales for Feb-Jun shipment, where Brazilian beans price is cheaper. 🔸China tilts further to Brazil. Brazil supplied nearly 80% of China's imports in the first nine months of 2026. Analysts expect Lula's pragmatic China ties to hold that share. The US pledge buying is state-led and largely booked; commercial crushers buy the cheaper origin. 🔸CBOT gets a currency premium. A record 4.56 bil. bu US crop, record US and Brazil supply, and now a weaker real all point the same way. Rallies are more likely to be sold while USD/BRL stays above about 5.30. 🔸 Marketing approach. Producers with unpriced 2026 bushels should treat CBOT bounces toward the pre-election level as sales opportunities rather than waiting on spring weather. For 2027, the El Niño setup (dry north Brazil, wet south) is the main upside risk
🤝 Paid partnership
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Record-low placements point to tighter fed cattle supplies into spring, while new New Mexico cases and the first wildlife case keep border risk high. Pork stocks are 9% above a year ago as the pork cutout softens.
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Brazil equity ETF (EWZ) plunged 26%, recording its largest-ever decline. #Brazil
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𝔻𝔸ℝ𝕂 𝕄𝕆𝔻𝔼 #GBR ⚫️🌽⚫️
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Mato Grosso soy is 75.8% planted (Imea), up 24 pts in a week and 15.8 pts ahead of last year’s 60.1%. Conab has Brazil at 30.1% through Oct 16, vs 21.4% a year ago and a 26.4% avg. Médio-Norte is nearly done at 96.6%. The fast early start in MT points to an early safrinha corn window and early-harvest Brazilian soy competing for export demand in Q1. #MatoGrosso 🇧🇷 #soybeans 🌱
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Oct 26th Trading Notes: 📝 🌽 #Corn holds MAX SHORT on a +123K net (-18K on the day, the biggest cut on the board, -23K since the Oct 20 COT), 61% of range, bearish bias with 452'4 under P458 and below S1, S 454/451, R 460/465 🌱 #Soybeans hold NEUTRAL on a +215K net (+7K, the biggest gain on the board, +8K since COT), 89% of range, bearish bias with 1239'6 under P1258 and below both supports, S 1251/1245, R 1263/1270 🌱 #Soymeal holds SMALL SHORT on a +199K net (-4K, -6K since COT), 97% of range and EXTREME, while #soyoil holds MODERATE SHORT on a +73K net (+2K), 66% of range; #oilshare climbs to 49.4% from 48.9%, stays above both the 9 and 20 day EMAs and the 9 day crosses above the 20 day, as board #crush slides to $2.39 from $2.45 and stays under both EMAs 🌾 #Wheat eases to LARGE SHORT from MAX SHORT on a -68K net (+2K, -17K since COT), 39% of range, bearish bias with 625'0 under P627, S 622/619, R 630/635 🌽 Crowding: #meal 97%, #beans 89%, #cotton 76%, #soyoil 66%, #corn 61%, #KCWheat 50% holding MAX SHORT on a -4K net (-1K) of historical range 🐂 Divergence: #cattle hold MODERATE LONG on a +55K net (0K), 38% of range, #feeders climb to MAX LONG from MODERATE LONG on a +11K net (+1K), 45% of range, both bullish bias with cattle 231.125 over P230.750 and feeders 348.125 over P347.600; #hogs ease to LARGE SHORT from MAX SHORT on a -52K net (+1K), 0% of range and still past the -44K weekly record; four labels flip vs Oct 23 and no bias changes ☁️ #Cotton slides to LARGE SHORT from SMALL SHORT, -3K on the day (4th of 10 on the board), 76% of range 📆 #Today: #ChicagoFed Activity 7:30am CT, #DallasFed Manufacturing 9:30am CT, #ExportInspections 10:00am CT, #CropProgress 3:00pm CT; #crude 101.147 (-2.123), $DXY 101.870 (+0.06), #gold 4012.02 (+18.06) ☀️ #Weather: ECMWF ensemble 7-day precip thru Nov 1 Oklahoma 0.58-1.39in, Nebraska 0.69-1.37in, Iowa 0.66-1.37in, Kansas 0.60-1.08in, Illinois 0.28-0.69in, Missouri 0.36-0.59in; the heaviest 1.3-1.7in band shifts north into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, and the eastern Corn Belt picks up 0.2-0.4in after a dry week 🌎 #Brazil: ECMWF ensemble 7-day thru Nov 1 puts 100-150mm across Goias and Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso 40-100mm, while Parana, Paraguay and interior Rio Grande do Sul turn drier
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☕✨ Coffee with Alpha video and commentary just dropped. 🌽🌱🌾🐂📊 🔹 Members: check your inbox (and spam, just in case). 👀 🚨 Not in yet? 1 month free. No excuses. 📲 Hit the link and see what's waiting for you this morning. 👇 #AlphaTrade 📈 #harvest26 lakefrontfutures.com/alpha-t… 🌽🌱🌾🇺🇸
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Heavenly Father, good morning. Before this week starts moving, I want to stop and thank you for the weekend. You gave me rest, real rest, and I didn't earn it. My body slowed down, my mind got quiet, and I got to be with the people I love. That was your kindness, and I don't want to rush past it into Monday like it didn't matter. Jesus, you said, "Until now you have asked nothing in my name. Ask, and you will receive, that your joy may be full." So I asked. I asked for this week to be a good one, and I asked because you told me to. Not because I think I can talk you into anything, but because you invited me to come to you with what I need. You know my habit. I ask, and then I walk out the door and try to carry it all myself. I check the markets like the outcome depends on how closely I watch. I replay client conversations before they happen. Forgive me for asking you for something and then acting like I'm still the one holding it. Tomorrow is the CT scan. You already know what it will show. Give me peace walking in, steady the hands of the people running it, and let me rest in you while I wait for results. Whatever the answer is, I want to receive it with you. Bless my clients this week. Give me wisdom to serve them well and say the right thing at the right time. Open the business doors you want opened, and close the ones that would pull me away from you. Give me a clear head in the markets, not fear and not greed. And cover my family. Keep them safe, keep us close, and let them see you in how I treat them this week. You promised that asking leads to joy. So I'm choosing to trust you with what I asked for and to look for that joy as the week unfolds, even in the parts I didn't plan. In Jesus' name, Amen. #dailyprayer✝️
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John 16:24 🙏🏼
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