Associate Professor at Arizona State Univeristy
Joined May 2020
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Domenico Ferraro retweeted
Know what doesn't replicate? DLR's original 1990–2006 elasticity of 0.016, from QCEW data covering only 26.75% of potential county pairs, becomes a significant -0.166 with far more complete county-pair CBP data (98.65% coverage). DLR's original null finding is indefensible.
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
From the paper: "... estimates in Clemens et al. (2025) ... lie near the centers of the distributions of standard synthetic control and synthetic difference-in-differences estimates... By contrast, the estimates in Dube (2026) described as “preferred” lie in their upper tails."
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
What’s actually going on in Ukraine is that a fascist dictator has invaded its democratic neighbor—a country that is an American ally & whose security we promised to support—and is savagely murdering its people, all with the blessing of the White House.
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
A horrific Russian strike in the Kharkiv region. A “shahed” struck people directly – in a park near an ordinary café. Pure atrocity. Six people were killed, including children. A little girl was killed in a stroller – her name was Angelina, she was just over a year old, born in August 2025… Her mother’s name was Inna. She died in the hospital… Another girl who was killed was 11 years old. My condolences to their families and loved ones. Another 14 people were injured, including six more children.
I am grateful to everyone who supports Ukraine under these circumstances and helps us shoot down “shaheds,” shoot down missiles, and stop Russian assaults. These are horrific photos, but behind them are shattered lives and the truth about this war. Lives must be protected. Ukraine needs air defense. You can't think about making money with Russia as long as it continues its asinine war. We ask that sanctions on Russia stay in place as long as the killings continue. We ask America to be strong, and we ask it to apply the Lindsey Graham law. We ask Europe to continue its support. We ask that everything possible be done to bring peace and guarantee security. Ukraine wants peace. It is Russia that has insisted on continuing the killing all this time. The world has enough strength to stop the war. That strength must finally be used – against the murderers.
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
Suggested reading: Peter Ireland (1996): "The Role of Countercyclical Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy. It anticipated themes that became central in New Keynesian macroeconomics and deserves a lot more attention than it has been receiving.
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
Looking forward to the MFMD Conference today and Saturday, at our Department of Economics at @WPCareySchool.
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
We do not assume the tax is annual. We estimate the revenue of the measure as written: a one-time wealth tax that could generate long-term income tax losses. We see 30% of the wealth tax base already eliminated pre-2026 and apply litigation-survival probability to the rest. 1/2 conference.nber.org/conf_pap…
The Hoover Institution, in a deceptive study, claimed the tax would end up costing more than it brings.
To reach that conclusion, the authors of the study assumed that the tax would become annual. Hence, on the cost side, some billionaires would leave California.
However, on the benefits side, if the tax becomes annual it would generate revenue annually.
But the Hoover economists did not take that into account.
You read that correctly: they assumed the tax would be annual, leading to some outflows, but that it would bring revenue only once.
This makes no sense – but usefully fuels the anti-tax ads. xitter.gq/gabriel_zucman/status/…
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
Even under the assumptions of the china shock, cause it mean cheap imports it was still welfare improving for most regions (and as a whole for the country) though those are averages it might be diff for skilled vs non skilled workers.
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
The "central message" of Autor et al. (2013) was found in the article's abstract: Chinese imports "cause higher unemployment, lower labor force participation, and reduced wages in local labor markets that house import competing manufacturing industries"; also "import competition explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in US manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in more trade-exposed labor markets."
Autor and Hanson reiterated their "central message" in even simpler terms in their 2025 op-ed in the New York Times: China "helped erase nearly a quarter of all U.S. manufacturing jobs... Waves of inexpensive goods from China imploded the economic foundations of places where manufacturing was the main game in town."
If you want, then, you can respond to my EJW article by rewriting their "central message." Yet the historical record persists...
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
He's baaack! @GeorgeSelgintakes time off from living the good life in Spain to weigh in on lessons learned from the Fed's Main Street lending facilities, emergency lending facilities, and the Fed's balance sheet task force. mercatus.org/macro-musings/g…
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
I think it's very clear that ADH and its follow-ups have led many people to believe that trade with China was a net negative for American jobs in the aggregate, when it's not at all obvious that was the case. If you read their abstract & intro, and those of many other similar papers, there are no caveats whatsoever about relative vs absolute effects. In ADH, it's relegated to a footnote. And their extrapolation to aggregate effects is totally inappropriate---a practice they have continued through all their work and propagated to the broader set of papers building on their work.
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
When industrial customers have to wait a decade to get electric service from a regulated utility, the least we can do in a free country is open up a permissionless option so they can move quickly
Industrial scale service for datacenters (100MW+) often have 5-10 years to wait for service, and there's only one utility they can buy power from.
"You're trying to tell the fastest moving sector in America that they have to wait a decade for service, that's the same thing as 'no'" says @ts_fisher of @CatoInstitute
Travis says the solution is to cut the red tape and "let the companies build their own power"
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
NEW REPORT: Millions of Americans already struggle to access pharmacies and the benefits they provide. But new policies could make the problem even worse.
A new @GoldwaterInst report warns that sweeping prohibitions on pharmacy ownership could disrupt care in communities with the fewest alternatives, and it urges lawmakers to address abusive business practices without making it harder for patients to obtain their medications.
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
God bless America 🇺🇸
And God bless real Americans like @GideonOPowell
.@GideonOPowell explains Bring Your Own Power, which allows people to build their own electrical grids, without asking for permission from the public utility commission first:
"This is America."
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
Fed day! Rate hike likely, but very little dicussion about the elephant in the room. Fiscal policy is still expansionary, and this creates issues for the Fed. Higher rates contribute to debt accumulation, adding inflationary pressure if no fiscal correction occurs – at Montrouge, France
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
How can we use macro and micro data jointly to discipline HANK models? Florian Huber, Gary Koop, and I address this in “Beyond Aggregate VARs: A Bayesian Benchmark for HANK Models”.
arxiv.org/abs/2609.06827
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
Last week, we hosted the First Chapel Hill - Copenhagen Conference on Macroeconomics and Deep Learning @UNC_econ. The conference was jointly organized by @JeppeDruedahl, @rabinovich_stan, Will Jungerman and myself. We were honored to have a brilliant keynote by @UncertainLars.
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
Today was the first day of the semester at Penn, and I started my course in Global Economic History!
The lecture was fun, and I tried to convey not only why economic growth is so important but also that anything we could have done to increase growth over the last 100 years would have had monumental consequences: we would have many more resources to eradicate global poverty, manage the fertility collapse and population aging, clean up the planet and decarbonize the economy, and, more generally, offer better opportunities to everyone across the globe.
Artificial intelligence, cheap energy, and modern science and technology have opened the doors to fundamental changes and opportunities, but only if we know how to take advantage of them.
The slides are here:
sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/GEH_1…
Nonetheless, I reminded the students of something perhaps even more fundamental. Many of the topics we will cover admit more than one interpretation of the evidence or hinge on how you weigh the outcomes. Does industrial policy work? If it does, is the cost worth paying?
I told them many times that they do not have to share my reading of the evidence or my criteria for judging outcomes. I have changed my mind about several of these questions, and experts have a poor record on economic growth over the past century.
I also told them we will grade their homework and exams based on command of the material, not on their agreement with me, and that I will try to set questions that agreement cannot answer, but understanding of the material and the arguments presented.
John Stuart Mill summarized the reason well:
He who knows only his own side of the case, knows little of that…Truth gains more even by the errors of one who, with due study and preparation, thinks for himself, than by the true opinions of those who only hold them because they do not suffer themselves to think.
Put another way: I would rather have my students reach the wrong conclusion by their own reasoning than the right one by taking my word for it. After all, independent thinking gave us modern science and technology. Let’s have more of it!
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
Happy to see our paper, “Government Debt Management and Inflation with Real and Nominal Bonds,” with Lukas Schmid and @VytautasValait2, come out in the Journal of Financial Economics!
sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
#EconX
#EconTwitter
Domenico Ferraro retweeted
I asked ChatGPT to compare water use for data centers, golf courses, and Christmas tree farms. Yes, the data for data centers is from 2023, but the numbers are still revealing:
So on the most straightforward on-site/direct-water comparison, golf courses are in a different league: they currently apply roughly 30 times as much water as all U.S. data centers did in 2023. Christmas-tree production appears to use considerably less water than either golf or projected AI infrastructure.