Dawn J retweeted
THE 15% BAND
Look at this chart.
59 races. Senate and governor.
States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024.
The solid lines are 2024.
The dashed lines are 2026.
The shaded bands are what moved.
One formula fits all of it:
Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024
Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024
For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side.
The numbers:
Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share
Governor: ~86%
Variation explained: 88%
What makes it strange:
It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero.
The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races.
Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853.
Why seats flipped:
At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped.
What this means:
Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere.
A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out.
The numbers raise the question.
The ballots can answer it.
Dawn J retweeted
Well, look at it like this.
The Trump Administration is going to redefine what it means to be a lame duck. Whatever arrows he still has burning a hole in his foreign policy quiver aside, there will still be endless investigations, nonstop obstruction, zero judicial appointments. The Democrats are almost certainly going to impeach him again. The reason doesn't even matter, we're past pretending that it does. What if they find four or five Senators who just really fucking hate the guy and are willing to play ball? Vance gets to inherit a big shit sandwich.
An incumbent Vance or not, I like the Dem's odds for the White House in 2028. I mean, Texas just elected a Democratic Governor for the first time since, what? 1996? Puerto Rico is two more Senate seats. DC is two more on top of that. Why not just say fuck it and throw in the AVIs, too? With two ancient conservative justices and zero nominations to SCOTUS for the foreseeable future, the Dems can probably wait it out, but they'll likely pack the court anyway. Then they'll pack the rest of the federal bench for good measure. They've told me they will and I believe them.
You can be assured that anyone they can get any excuse to prosecute they will. That's not just spite, it's to put the professional class on notice. Nobody in Washington will be willing to work for a MAGA-esque guy again, because they have a $6000 mortgage in Loudoun County and two kids to put through college. They're not going to risk getting dragged through ruinous legal hell or even go to prison. They're going to crucify Elon Musk and kill that Golden Goose. It's not even the money or X or the weird optics of having a smart and wildly successful white immigrant bagging on them all the time. It's that he Just Does Things they can't.
The last of the rightwing legal societies will get dismantled, conservative lawyers will get disbarred (already happening), the border is going to be re-opened, just a little slower and neater for optics, and 10-30 million illegal immigrants who know which party butters their bread will get amnesty and fast tracked to citizenship. A new census will get put out and they'll redistrict.
With all three branches of the government under their control they are going to pass legislation and budgets you wouldn't believe. Money to their whole team. A fire hose to NGOs. If any part of this is tenuous in the Congress, they'll just find a judge to say they "have to" because one of their deep stable of leftist lawyers sued and then they'll say "aw, shucks, thems the rules". They're going to codify all the stuff through the courts that people don't actually want, just like they did with gay marriage. "You'll get used to it" they'll figure. And "we" will. Again. We're going to get so many refugees, so many new DEI programs, so many new taxes, it'll leave people breathless. But it won't matter if people don't like it, because we'll have so many new people who are stoked about it. The middle class white people who are left after AI disrupts the whole white collar workforce are going to have a ring jammed through their nose and dragged out to the yard like the tax cows they are, left loudly mooing about why the leopards are eating their faces.
And you better believe they're coming for the guns, too. They'll get new rulings from their new courts and issue broad mandates on all sorts of firearms. Nobody's going door to door, there will be no shootout at the OK Corral. They'll just tell you the guns in your house are a felony now and offer everyone a grace period to turn them in. And they mostly will, sooner or later. Because normal law abiding citizens don't want to go to prison or become convicted felons and normal law abiding citizens are the target.
And that's just the low hanging fruit. You're going to get almost everything you want, right up until it all falls apart because people like you don't understand why anything is the way it is and so you have no ability to effectively change or maintain it. But, by that point, it will be too late. Then it's either the eternal favela or some guy doing his best Reinhard Heydrich impression telling his boys to harden their hearts and do their duty. You won't like either. You're going to lose, the only question is if we're going to lose with you.
xitter.gq/pallaspallas68/status/…
Dawn J retweeted
Every time I see close election results like 49% to 49% I just remember how the CIA confirmed there are teams of statisticians, mathematicians and hackers who work together overseas to rig American electronic voting machine election results. They keep margins close and quietly adjust results so Democrats win. Exactly like what we always see on election night
Lara Logan interviews Former CIA operations officer Gary Berntsen who explains how elections are being stolen in America
🚨 He describes there are teams of statisticians, mathematicians, and hackers who map out every county and identify where margins can be quietly adjusted
Different techniques are used in each location so nothing matches in a recount. When a 70-30 county becomes 68-32, nobody notices. But when you add up these differences across an entire state, those tiny amounts of fraud decide outcomes
Both former CIA operations officer Gary Berntsen and author Ralph Pezzullo explain the strategy. They explain they don't flip the big blue cities. Instead they shave votes in the places no one ever audits
“They know where they can find the dead people... Mm-hmm.”
“They plan this, It's meticulous. It's meticulous. These guys are experts at this. It's not just a few guys in a back room. You're talking about hundreds of statisticians and engineers, and they work it, you know, for a year to plan and mathematicians and hackers.”
“We had a map out of Colorado when we were talking to our engineers, the guys that designed it, that stole the elections.
— We just go to every one place where Trump wins 70-30 and — Shaved it off.
We shave in every other place. We don't go near a Democratic place, because when they wanna do recounts, they're gonna go to the Democratic places. They don't realize we shaved in every other committee. We know every other county.
We know how to do this. And then in each of those things where they shave, they shave with a different technique in each one of those. So if you found something in, in one county, there's no continuity around the state that way.
So this is why the Republicans are so much at fault, because they have the power and the ability to show in their areas they can allow access to the machines, they can allow access to the source code”
People need to go to prison. Democrats are stealing elections nationwide in every county, in every state of America
Dawn J retweeted
Did you know President Trump was indicted for “pressuring” Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to investigate election integrity in his state?
Five years later, Fulton County admitted that roughly 315,000 early votes from the 2020 election were counted without the required poll-worker signatures on the tabulator tapes (a violation of State Election Board rules). Biden’s certified margin in Georgia was 11,779 votes.
Now you do.
But don’t worry folks. Nothing to see here.
Dawn J retweeted
More than 1 in 4 American adults now read at the lowest level.
Math over 1 in 3.
Public schools run by Democrats decided to teach feelings instead of phonics/arithmetic while mass immigration dumped in millions who barely speak English.
And so we end up with a population that can only handle short simple texts and basic sums.
Literally everything they touch.
Dawn J retweeted
when i was 19 i worked at a pizza place, and every friday around 7pm a guy named doug would call to say his large pepperoni pizza showed up with no pepperoni on it.
every friday. same complaint, same line: "i paid for pepperoni and i got cheese."
my manager, gary, didn't want a fight, so he'd just comp him a free pizza. by week five we had given doug four free pizzas, and i was convinced he was scamming us.
i started watching the pizza get made. the pepperoni was always on there. i even took a photo once, with the pepperoni clearly visible, just to have proof.
so on week five, gary told me to deliver doug's pizza myself and "figure out what's going on."
i knocked, doug opened the door, and i said i'd like to watch him open the box. he looked confused but said ok.
Dawn J retweeted
California’s billionaire tax was supposed to raise $100 billion.
Now a new study estimates $30 billion in collections against $39 billion in lost income tax revenue.
When you chase away the people paying the bills, everyone else gets stuck with the tab.
Dawn J retweeted
I'm old enough to remember when Bernie Sanders used to criticize millionaires but switched the word to Billionaires when he started getting rich 🧐
Dawn J retweeted
Obviously, a lot goes into it, but when Derrick Henry has lost a fumble in a game, the Ravens lose.
He's lost 5 fumbles in 39 regular season games w/Balt. The Ravens are 0-5 in those games, all 5 were one-score losses. Average margin of defeat in those losses is 3.6 points.
Dawn J retweeted
Garrett Wilson walked out of the stadium in Chicago and apologized to a 17 year old girl.
She had traveled all that way to watch him play, and he was sorry about how the day had gone.
Her mother says that apology is the reason she is back in school.
Here is the whole thing.
Her name is Riley Driskill. She is a senior in high school, and she was not even a Jets fan. She grew up on the Chiefs.
In September she lost her best friend.
After that she stopped sleeping. She stopped going to school. She stopped seeing the people she knew. Her mother, Becky, took time off work to be home with her.
Nobody in that house was looking to a football game to fix anything.
Now here is the part nobody could have arranged.
Becky's boss is a man named Kenny Wilson.
Kenny Wilson is Garrett's father.
He had passes for the game in Chicago against the Bears, and he offered them.
Becky asked her daughter if she wanted to go. Riley said "Of course." Then she asked one question.
"Am I going to see Garrett?"
They had met him one time before, at MetLife. She asked him to make a TikTok and he said yes. That was the entire relationship. One TikTok.
Understand who she was asking about. He came out of Ohio State and went 10th overall. He signed an extension this year worth 130 million dollars, with 90 million of it guaranteed, averaging over 31 million a year. No receiver in the history of the league had ever gotten that after only three seasons.
Men who sign those do not generally come looking for anybody in a tunnel.
So here is what happened when he came out of the players' exit.
He apologized to them.
Sorry you came all that way. Sorry it was that kind of day.
Then he hugged her. He put his arm around her for a picture. He signed her jersey.
All her mother could say was this.
"You are amazing."
Here is how Wilson explains it.
"Treat everyone how you want to be treated."
His own father describes him as "gracious and nice and loving."
Riley has gone to school every day since. She is around her friends again. She has started looking at colleges.
This is what her mother says about that.
"If it wasn't for him, she might still be in a dark room."
"It made her day. It brought life back into her."
Kenny told Garrett later what the whole thing had meant to her. Here is what Garrett said back.
"She made my day as well."
Now the honest part. One hug does not fix what happened to that girl, and her mother has never said it did. Riley had people around her and she is the one who got up every morning and went. And Wilson never told anybody about any of this. A reporter went and found it.
But a kid who had stopped leaving her own house traveled to another city to go watch a stranger play football.
And the stranger came out and told her he was sorry.
Dawn J retweeted
After catching up and watching the game replay, I’m honestly a little confused by how much #Ravens fans are overreacting to the #Browns loss. Here’s why:
1. Tyler Huntley VASTLY limits the ceiling of this offense.
Huntley is a game manager at best. That’s not a knock on him, it’s just the reality of who he is as a quarterback. He struggles to consistently push the ball downfield, doesn’t throw with anticipation, and limits what you can realistically ask this offense to execute. I never expected a productive offensive performance with him under center, especially against this defense.
2. The Browns defense deserves some credit.
Even with a few guys out, Cleveland still has a very talented, well-coached defensive unit. The Ravens had some early success schematically, but the Browns adjusted after the first quarter and made life increasingly difficult. Sometimes you have to acknowledge that the opposing defense played a good football game.
3. The Ravens defense played a PHENOMENAL game.
Outside of a handful of third-down blunders, I thought this was another extremely encouraging performance from this unit.
Deshaun Watson threw for just 164 yards. The Ravens generated FIVE sacks, the pass rush was consistently disruptive, and the tackling continues to improve. Kyle Hamilton was outstanding, and the defense looked fast, physical, and disciplined for most of the afternoon.
There are still things to clean up, particularly in critical situations, but the overall trajectory of this defense is extremely encouraging as we approach the middle of the season.
4. The Ravens made critical mistakes that ultimately cost them the game.
Derrick Henry’s fumble, the missed field goal, and the late defensive breakdowns were all costly. Those are mistakes you simply cannot afford to make in a close divisional game.
But there’s a difference between identifying a handful of costly mistakes and acting like the entire team is fundamentally flawed.
5. CONTEXT MATTERS.
The Ravens are 4-2, playing without their two-time MVP quarterback, and just lost a divisional road game by three points.
Is it frustrating? Absolutely. Should the Ravens have won this game? Without question.
But I’m far more interested in the encouraging developments on defense than I am concerned about an offense being led by a backup quarterback with obvious limitations.
Get Lamar Jackson back healthy, continue building on what we’ve seen defensively, and clean up the situational mistakes.
I still feel VERY good about where this team is headed.
Not every loss needs to trigger a full-blown crisis.
Alright someone give me the recap on the #Ravens today. Daughter’s birthday party was this afternoon so could only watch the 1st Q.
Dawn J retweeted
Let me break down what I'm seeing and hearing here from DR.
I don't know DR's source for these materials , but they appear completely legit and are profoundly disturbing.
These are leading members of the Democrat Party hatching up the following strategy:
1. After the midterms, use the DSA to incite and carry out violent civil unrest.
2. Make the violent civil unrest so bad that Trump must invoke the Insurrection Act.
3. Use the invocation of the Insurrection Act to create a national sense of illegitimacy whereby Democrat governors appear justified in taking the extreme action of refusing to acknowledge federal authority and push to form a new form of federal government via various means, including an Article V transformation of the Constitution.
Maybe there is more to this and it's not as bad as it seems, but right now this appears to be a conspiracy to create the next Fort Sumter.
This is a CIA-style color revolution in real time, on our own soil.
(Of course the legacy media is nowhere near this--it takes us Internet randos to get the word out.)
The past few days, I got my hands on thousands of new transcripts and hundreds of recordings, thanks to leads from @SKDoubleDub33 and @iamlisalogan .
You've heard that the DSA is proposing structural reforms to America, including abolishing the Senate and imposing term limits.
What you not have heard is - there is an operational plan to put it all into action. If the Democratic Party sweeps 2026, then DSA will become "foot soldiers" in constant clashes with the administration to cross a "red line" or invoke a "doomsday scenario" - meaning, President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act, probably sometime in 2027.
Then, a lot of coordinated responses kick off, including delegitimizing the federal government itself and handing that legitimacy to Democratic governors. 2028 then becomes a vote on whether to keep America governance as-is or to burn it all down to appease a "young and brown" demographic.
The mysterious group who's been coordinating 50501, Indivisible, and coordinating the NoKings protests is called "United Democracy Alliance" and their intellectual leader is Erica Chenoweth who came up with the 3.5% rule of nonviolent regime change.
Patience. I know I've hyped this more than anything else. It's genuinely the biggest discovery I've had. This is an enormous archive. This is only the beginning.
The MD state legislature actually did something worthwhile!!!
🚨 MARYLAND BECOMES FIRST STATE TO PROTECT BUSINESSES DONATING PET FOOD — NEW LAW TAKES EFFECT
Maryland has enacted a first-in-the-nation law making it easier for businesses to donate surplus pet food and supplies instead of throwing them away.
▪️ SB 314: Took effect October 1 after unanimous, bipartisan legislative approval.
▪️ LIABILITY PROTECTION: Shields businesses and organizations donating or distributing safe pet products in good faith from certain civil lawsuits.
▪️ ELIGIBLE DONATIONS: Overstocked food, discontinued products, outdated packaging and items approaching best-by dates.
▪️ WHO BENEFITS: Animal shelters, rescue organizations, pet food pantries and financially struggling pet owners.
▪️ BILL SPONSOR: Democratic Sen. Jeff Waldstreicher.
The law also preserves state oversight of donated commercial animal feed.
Less waste, fewer legal barriers for businesses and more assistance for families struggling to feed their pets. The next test is whether the law produces measurable increases in donations without compromising animal safety.
SOURCES: Humane World for Animals, October 13; Maryland General Assembly, SB 314 (Chapter 464).
Dawn J retweeted
In 2020 they fired up the money printer and dumped trillions into the economy like it cost nothing. Then they looked us in the eye and called inflation "transitory." Six years later, CPI just hit 3.7% and it's climbing again.
Your paycheck didn't get printed. Your savings didn't get printed. But your grocery bill, your rent, your car insurance, and your electric bill all went up and never came back down.
You cannot flood the system with free money and then act shocked when every dollar you earn buys less. That's not bad luck. That's the bill coming due.
And nobody who made that call is paying it. You are. Every single month.
This isn't over. Not even close.
Dawn J retweeted
When Trump suggested putting light inside the body to treat COVID, the discussion became a national punchline.
But few people heard the history behind it.
Decades earlier, American doctors were treating blood with ultraviolet light and reporting remarkable recoveries from life-threatening infections.
Then the American Medical Association helped drive the treatment out of hospitals. 🧵
Dawn J retweeted
WHOLESOME: #Ravens star WR Zay Flowers dressed up as a mannequin at the team’s Flock Shop to surprise unsuspecting fans and their reactions were absolutely PRICELESS.
Fans were shocked when Flowers suddenly came to life and started interacting with them.
“I speak mannequin. He said stop filming him.”
😭😭😭
(🎥@Ravens)