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$BTC FOMC coming up, end/start of the month and earnings season. All in the next 1-2 weeks.
All these usually make for a choppy market environment. Afterwards I think price action should be cleaner again.
Liquidity sits at the local highs and lows. Big cluster below $80K and then above $87K.
Those are also the levels I am waiting for at this point. Not interested in trading anything in between really unless it's a super solid setup.
$BTC Local liquidity swept above $84K, shorts taken out and bulls failed to hold the breakout level.
Now back in the middle of the range in between the 4H 200MA/EMA.
Shared in my free telegram yesterday how I closed active long positions at $84K+ because things were starting to look a bit shaky. Happy with that decision.
Market isn't ready for a decisive move either direction and this is not a place where I want to take on new positions so just taking it chill until next week at least.
$BTC Trading well above its Bull Market Support Band.
Somewhere in a new up trend, we do tend to see a retest of the band.
That can happen early or late in the rally. In this case the band is moving up quickly so even if price remains at the same level, the test will come by itself at some point.
These tests are generally really solid high timeframe levels for buys. Of course it needs to hold and give a reaction, unlike the attempt back in May this year. But your invalidation in that instance is clear.
But this is not relevant as we speak, just good to be prepared for if it happens. Because that retest is not a place to panic but people usually do.
For now, the trend is your friend.
Daan Crypto Trades retweeted
$BTC Fun starts above $84K
$BTC Loves following this pattern. During 2023-2025 we saw the same during the entire run up.
1. Volatility low, compression high, sentiment worsens
2. Sweep local lows (sometimes several times)
3. Retake previous low
4. Quick move towards top of range
5. Big move outside of range into new highs
Yet, during every consolidation, calls for a top happen and people willingly sell their coins. The easiest thing to not have this happen to you is to wait for candle closes and to see if a "break" below sees any follow through.
As you can see in these cases we had a few small breakdowns and price action below the initial support levels. Yet, there was never any considerable follow through lower. This means a lot of absorption is taking place.
Then when price recovers, sellers are mostly out and it flies with added short fuel too.
In today's case, $83K is a good first level for the daily closes to watch. From there, if bullish, you'd want to see quick acceleration to $87K+ without too much hesitation. Generally this takes less than a few days if the past 2 cases are of any indication.
$ETH Solid reaction after the range sweep.
Bulls need to retake and hold above $2550 and then we can start preparing for $3K+ for the first time in a while.
Range for now but BTC looks like it wants higher too.
$ETH Retesting its Daily 200EMA which was sitting right below the triple low which got swept as liquidity.
Interesting spot and technically this looks like a solid high timeframe area.
Invalidation is clear, you don't want to see daily closes below that Daily 200EMA and ideally not even below $2350 where we are at right now. Otherwise you can start aiming for a retest of the Daily 200MA.
Best you can do in this market is work in scenario's and different levels. This is a solid support until proven otherwise.
$BTC Fun starts above $84K
$BTC Loves following this pattern. During 2023-2025 we saw the same during the entire run up.
1. Volatility low, compression high, sentiment worsens
2. Sweep local lows (sometimes several times)
3. Retake previous low
4. Quick move towards top of range
5. Big move outside of range into new highs
Yet, during every consolidation, calls for a top happen and people willingly sell their coins. The easiest thing to not have this happen to you is to wait for candle closes and to see if a "break" below sees any follow through.
As you can see in these cases we had a few small breakdowns and price action below the initial support levels. Yet, there was never any considerable follow through lower. This means a lot of absorption is taking place.
Then when price recovers, sellers are mostly out and it flies with added short fuel too.
In today's case, $83K is a good first level for the daily closes to watch. From there, if bullish, you'd want to see quick acceleration to $87K+ without too much hesitation. Generally this takes less than a few days if the past 2 cases are of any indication.
$SOL Held up well all things considered and looks good to me.
Want to see this slowly grind back to the local highs, from there it should accelerate.
High timeframe invalidation remains clear below the green zone so I like the R/R.
vs ETH it has been roughly stable over the months.
$SOL Slow and steady. It has been pretty resilient relative to $BTC & $ETH the past few days.
Still sitting right above the major support level with the Daily 200EMA coming in below. So that's a clear invalidation below.
Solana Breakpoint is a month from now which usually sees some renewed interest in this the weeks prior.
$BTC Trading back into the range and testing the 4H 200MA.
Still a lot of equal highs around $84K where a good amount of short interest entered after the hot CPI print last week.
$BTC Loves following this pattern. During 2023-2025 we saw the same during the entire run up.
1. Volatility low, compression high, sentiment worsens
2. Sweep local lows (sometimes several times)
3. Retake previous low
4. Quick move towards top of range
5. Big move outside of range into new highs
Yet, during every consolidation, calls for a top happen and people willingly sell their coins. The easiest thing to not have this happen to you is to wait for candle closes and to see if a "break" below sees any follow through.
As you can see in these cases we had a few small breakdowns and price action below the initial support levels. Yet, there was never any considerable follow through lower. This means a lot of absorption is taking place.
Then when price recovers, sellers are mostly out and it flies with added short fuel too.
In today's case, $83K is a good first level for the daily closes to watch. From there, if bullish, you'd want to see quick acceleration to $87K+ without too much hesitation. Generally this takes less than a few days if the past 2 cases are of any indication.
Token unlocks don鈥檛 always dump price, but ignoring them completely is how you end up holding supply that someone else has been waiting months to sell.
Always know what鈥檚 coming before you size in. Especially on long term holds.
This doesn't mean you should always stay away from projects that are still unlocking tokens, but make sure there's some good momentum or some form of buyback in place to offset those unlocks.
No momentum in the market + Big unlocks is eternal bleed lower. This has been the case for almost every coin that launched over the past few years.
$BTC As long as green holds, all you need is some momentum to ignite and the trend is back on and should see continuation quickly.
High timeframe retests are often ugly/messy. Especially on lower timeframes. But in hindsight when zoomed out, they often make sense and seem "easy".
That's why waiting for confirmation of high timeframe candle closes is so important.
$BTC Still sitting at its big support & resistance level.
This has been the 3rd drawdown of 7% or more since the local bottom at $58K.
RSI levels have been reset and sentiment is quite neutral overall. So that's positive.
In terms of price action, the trend is still clearly up. But the bulls would want to get the next leg going soon because sitting at a major level like this for too long is waiting to fall through at some point.
$BTC Loves following this pattern. During 2023-2025 we saw the same during the entire run up.
1. Volatility low, compression high, sentiment worsens
2. Sweep local lows (sometimes several times)
3. Retake previous low
4. Quick move towards top of range
5. Big move outside of range into new highs
Yet, during every consolidation, calls for a top happen and people willingly sell their coins. The easiest thing to not have this happen to you is to wait for candle closes and to see if a "break" below sees any follow through.
As you can see in these cases we had a few small breakdowns and price action below the initial support levels. Yet, there was never any considerable follow through lower. This means a lot of absorption is taking place.
Then when price recovers, sellers are mostly out and it flies with added short fuel too.
In today's case, $83K is a good first level for the daily closes to watch. From there, if bullish, you'd want to see quick acceleration to $87K+ without too much hesitation. Generally this takes less than a few days if the past 2 cases are of any indication.
$WLD Has remained strong during all the volatility.
$0.58 is the level to break for a move higher. Been in this range for about a month now.
$WLD Has been very volatile, lots of big intra day moves.
But this chart is shaping up in an interesting way. Volume hasn't been as great as the June move but above $0.65 this accelerates quickly.
Biggest thing holding this down is of course the still large unlocks which will obviously also become more on an USD basis when price goes up.
But there does seem to be some relative strength in this and a single decent headline could push this above that big $0.65 level.
The OpenAI IPO is also interesting to this but that one is unlikely to occur anytime soon for now.
$BTC First shorts getting squeezed. But the majority of them will cover higher than this. Lots of equal highs around $84K are the target to squeeze those out.
$BTC Has been very undecisive in October so far.
Price did take out the liquidity below $80K and has chopped around more since.
The biggest liquidity cluster sits between $83K-$84K which marks the local range high. It also corresponds with open interest that entered in that region that is still holding.
$BTC Bulls need to get a bounce going soon or the floor falls through.
This support has been tested many times now while the $83K+ region has been rejecting price. Both major levels in the short term.
Now caught in between the two, I assume a bigger move ignites when we see a convincing break of either.
$BTC Has been unbothered by OIL price action for the past few months.
If anything, it is more positively correlated than inversely correlated. The latter we clearly see with (Tech) stocks that tend to go risk on or off based on the direction OIL is trading.
Bitcoin has either joined directionally with OIL or even in recent weeks it held stronger relative to OIL's direction. Acting very different as to what stocks have been doing.
Obviously the duration & sample size is small, but it has still been going on for a good few months by now.
In the end, Bitcoin tends to do what it wants.
Yes, it takes on macro and risk on/off environments from stocks etc.
But it is never a reliable correlation. Crypto can be weak or strong for months completely opposite of what other markets are doing.
Then during uncertainty it tends to trade 1:1 with stocks for example.
Conclusion: Just trade what you're seeing now and how the market is behaving. Don't value too much what other markets are doing or the macro environment you're expecting. Because it tends to throw people off more often than not.
$BTC Has been very undecisive in October so far.
Price did take out the liquidity below $80K and has chopped around more since.
The biggest liquidity cluster sits between $83K-$84K which marks the local range high. It also corresponds with open interest that entered in that region that is still holding.
$BTC Not the worst weekly candle in the end. Still trading at the big support & resistance area.
Do think we'll see a decisive move here pretty soon, especially since markets in general are pretty volatile and are looking for a bigger move soon.
$BTC.D Remains strong during this correction. Alts giving up ground while $BTC has been holding steady.
Bitcoin has been gaining against alts, stocks, metals, most assets over the past few weeks & months.
That is what you'd want to see to break out of this consolidation. BTC to lead, alts to follow later.
Because too much buying pressure and speculation on alts takes away strength from Bitcoin.
$BTC.D Making another push for it. No real big moves have happened on here the entire year.
Honestly, with how much some alts ran up and how little people have really cared about their BTC vs Alts portfolio distribution, I don't think it would be bad BTC to take the spotlight for a bit.
Upside is that it gets a lot more bid and it can rally much easier than if the majority of the market is speculating on alts.
Of course, alts will still run if BTC makes new local highs, but if BTC outperforms it usually makes for the strongest and most steady rallies. The ones where you can see big percentages in a month. Then after we can continue the altcoin speculation & outperformance again (still selectively of course).
