DeFi_Machine

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE NEXT GLOBAL CRISIS BEGINS, AND IT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE ONE MARKET NOBODY WATCHES Three weeks ago I warned about a debt crisis building. Since then every number moved the wrong way. Here is the truth almost nobody wants to hear. The S&P 500, Bitcoin, all of crypto, they are dust compared to the bond market. The global bond market sets the price of money itself. Every stock, every coin, every mortgage, every government is built on top of it. When it moves, everything moves. And right now, it is cracking on three fronts at once. THE UNITED STATES → 30Y yield: 5.31%, a 19-YEAR high → 10Y: 4.73%, closing in on 5% → Levels last seen right before 2008 → Foreign buyers pulled $72B out in a single month America's biggest lenders are walking away. CHINA → Cut its US Treasury holdings to $633B, an 18-YEAR low → The lowest since September 2008 For years China was one of the biggest buyers of US debt. Now it is doing the opposite, steadily backing away from funding America and the rest of the world. The buyer that helped keep borrowing cheap is gone. JAPAN → Near-zero rates for THREE DECADES, now ending → 10Y yield hit 3%, highest since 1996 → 30Y broke above 4% When Japanese bonds pay again, Japanese money stops funding the world and stays home. Another giant buyer disappears. EUROPE → France's 10Y at 4.10%, highest since 2009 → Germany's 30Y at 3.73%, highest since 2011 → UK's 30Y gilt at 5.85% France is the weak link. Italy must refinance debt worth 17% of its GDP this year. Every major government on earth is paying more to borrow, at the same time, for the same reasons. The trigger could be anything. But the weakest point in the whole system is Japan. Three decades of cheap money unwinding at once is the crack that could split the entire foundation. Watch the bond market first. Everything else is a sideshow. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 ELECTIONS, JOBS AND INFLATION HIT THE MARKET IN THE SAME WEEK. NOV 2-6 MONDAY, NOV 2 🔴 14:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 🔴 15:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) Earnings: Apple (after the close), Palantir, Marriott and 17 others TUESDAY, NOV 3 🔴 15:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) 🟡 15:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US Factory Orders (Sep) Earnings: AMD, Pfizer, Amgen, Shopify and 34 others WEDNESDAY, NOV 4 🟡 10:00 UTC: Eurozone Flash CPI (Oct) 🔴 13:15 UTC (8:15 AM ET): US ADP Employment Change (Oct) 🔴 14:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): US S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) 🔴 15:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US ISM Services PMI (Oct) 🔴 15:30 UTC (10:30 AM ET): US EIA Crude Oil Inventories Earnings: Qualcomm, McDonalds, Uber, AppLovin and 34 others THURSDAY, NOV 5 🟡 00:30 UTC (9:30 Tokyo): Japan Services PMI (Oct) 🔴 13:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Initial Jobless Claims Earnings: ConocoPhillips, Airbnb, Cigna, Monster Beverage and 39 others FRIDAY, NOV 6 🔴 13:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Wages (Oct) 🟡 15:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) Earnings: Vistra, Humana, Charter, Moderna and 2 others What to watch: → Jobs report on Friday: consensus is +55k payrolls (September was +29k), unemployment steady at 4.2%, wages +0.3% m/m. The Fed held last week with two votes for a hike, and markets price a December hike. → US midterms on Tuesday: all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up. Results land into Wednesday, the day of ADP and ISM Services. → ISM Manufacturing on Monday is expected at 54.7 (prior 54.5). ISM Services on Wednesday is expected at 54.7 (prior 54.9). → Eurozone flash CPI on Wednesday: September inflation was 3.8%, core 2.5%. Hikes are on the table elsewhere too: the RBA is priced about 79% for a hike on Tuesday and the Bank of England is expected to hike 25bp on Thursday. → Apple and Palantir report Monday, AMD Tuesday, Qualcomm Wednesday. No Coinbase or Strategy earnings this week, so bitcoin follows the macro. November is just getting started. Follow me and turn notifications on. I will post every major risk as it hits.

🚨 NOVEMBER WILL BE THE BLOODBATH MONTH. HERE IS WHAT THE MARKET IS IGNORING. Most people think November is just another month. Look at what is stacking up at the same time. The US midterm elections are on November 3. Prediction markets give Democrats about 85% to flip the House, and the Senate is close to a coin flip. The market has to price a divided Washington from zero, and it hates doing that. The Iran war is still not over. Brent hit a four-year high of $116.72 on October 23, and the IEA has called this the largest oil supply shock ever. Oil above $100 hits every company and every household. The Fed already hiked in September to 3.75%-4.00%, and a December hike is priced near 80%. The 10-year yield is above 5%, near multi-decade highs. Stocks were built on cheap money, and the money is not cheap anymore. Inflation is not cooling. CPI is 3.7%, PCE is 3.6%, and producer prices jumped 1.3% in one month. At the same time, September payrolls were only 29K and real wages are falling. Prices go up, hiring slows down. The Fed cannot fix both. Crypto just took its own hit. Binance was hacked for about $6.3 billion, the biggest crypto theft in history. About $3 billion was frozen, deposits and withdrawals were suspended, and BTC dropped about 5% below $77K. Binance says it will cover all losses, but trust in exchanges and crypto apps is under pressure too. Earnings are starting to crack. Meta raised its capex plan to $135-145 billion and missed on profit. Amazon and Intel both fell after their reports, and Intel lost almost 30% in one day. The AI trade is under pressure. Nasdaq had a -2.6% day on October 22, its worst since June, and CoreWeave fell about 30% in the first half of October. Even the biggest AI IPO is being repriced. Anthropic is reportedly heading to a listing before late November, and talk of its valuation has moved down from about $2 trillion toward $1.5 trillion after growth slowed. Elections, war, rate hikes, high inflation, a crypto exchange hack and a cracking AI trade. All in one month, with the market already bleeding. Everyone is watching the Fed. Almost nobody is watching the whole picture. Protect your capital and watch your leverage. Over 12 years in these markets. I post the risks before they hit the screen. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: CHICAGO PMI MISSES THE FORECAST AS STOCKS ALREADY BLEED. Chicago PMI came in at 55.3 vs 56.0 expected. The previous reading was 58.8. Manufacturing is still above 50, so it is still growing. But it is slowing for the second month in a row after the September jump. Stocks are already falling today: S&P 500 -1.25%, Nasdaq -2.3%. A December hike is priced near 80%, and the market is not getting relief from the Fed. Stay alert. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: THE BANK OF JAPAN HOLDS AT 1.25%, BUT ONE BOARD MEMBER JUST VOTED TO HIKE. THE DECEMBER BOMB IS TICKING. The BoJ kept rates unchanged. The vote was 8-1. Takata wanted 1.50% right now. Tokyo core inflation is 2.6%, in line with the forecast and well above the 2% target. A December hike is priced near 80%. The BoJ also more than doubled its ETF selling pace from January 2027. That is extra pressure on Japanese stocks. When Japan hikes, the yen carry trade can unwind fast. Global markets can feel it. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: THE ECB HOLDS RATES AT 2.50%. THE HIKE IS NOT CANCELED, IT IS JUST DELAYED. The ECB kept the deposit rate unchanged, as most economists expected. But euro area inflation is 3.8%, almost double the 2% target. In the latest Reuters poll, 64 of 73 economists expect a hike in December. Lagarde press conference starts at 13:45 UTC (14:45 CET). Her words on December matter more than the hold. Euro, European stocks and crypto can move fast. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: THE US ECONOMY JUST BEAT ON EVERYTHING. THAT IS THE WORST NEWS FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO. GDP Q3: 3.4% vs 3.2% expected. Previous: 2.2% Jobless claims: 194K vs 199K expected. Previous: 194K PCE inflation: 3.6%, as expected. Previous: 3.4% Strong growth. Almost no layoffs. Inflation going UP, not down. The Fed has zero reason to stop, and a December hike is priced near 80%. In this market, good news for the economy is bad news for stocks and crypto. PCE in line is not a relief, it is 0.2 points higher than last month. Rate cut hopes are dead. Stay alert. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 INFLATION, GDP AND JOBLESS CLAIMS ALL HIT AT 12:30 UTC. BLOODBATH OR RELIEF IN 60 MINUTES. Today at 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US PCE Price Index YoY (Sep) Expected: 3.6% Previous: 3.4% IF PCE > 3.6% → MARKET DUMPS IF PCE = 3.6% → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM IF PCE < 3.6% → MARKET PUMPS September CPI was 3.7% and PPI jumped 1.3% in a month. A hot PCE would confirm that inflation is not cooling, and it keeps the December hike on the table. Also at 12:30 UTC: - GDP Q3 advance. Expected: 3.2%. Previous: 2.2% - Jobless claims. Expected: 199K. Previous: 194K Strong GDP and low claims plus hot PCE is a bad mix for risk assets. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: THE FED HOLDS AT 3.75%-4.00%. WARSH HAS 30 MINUTES TO MOVE THE MARKET. The Fed left rates unchanged, as the market expected. The hike odds were only about 10%. But a hold is NOT a green light. A December hike is priced near 80%, and the Fed has not taken it off the table. Warsh press conference starts at 18:30 UTC (2:30 PM ET). One wrong sentence from him can turn this hold into a selloff. On September 16 the hike was fully priced, and stocks still fell because of his tone. Stocks and crypto, stay alert. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: US CRUDE STOCKS FELL AGAIN, AND OIL IS ALREADY CRUSHING THE ECONOMY. THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR THE MARKET. EIA Crude Oil Inventories: -1.892M barrels. Expected: +0.1M. Previous: -3.06M. That is the fourth draw in a row. US stocks fell by about 16.7 million barrels in four weeks. Supply is getting tighter, while oil is already near $100. And oil is already hurting: → US gasoline rose 9.1% in September alone → US CPI is at 3.7% → Producer prices jumped 1.3% in one month → Euro area energy prices are up almost 19% → Consumers expect 6.1% inflation over the next year Every barrel that leaves storage keeps the price high. And a high oil price hits everything: transport, food, factories and your wallet. Stocks and crypto do not like this. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING THE FED ANNOUNCES ITS RATE DECISION TODAY AT 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET)! IF HOLD (3.75%-4.00%) → MARKET PUMPS IF HIKE (4.00%-4.25%) → BLOODBATH CME FedWatch has the hike odds at about 10%. In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold. But the decision is only half of the story. Warsh press conference starts at 18:30 UTC (2:30 PM ET). On September 16 the hike was fully priced, and stocks still fell because of his tone. A December hike is priced near 80%. If Warsh confirms it, even a hold can turn ugly. ALL EYES ON 18:00 UTC!! 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE JUST EXPLODED TO 91.7. THE FED MEETS TOMORROW. BLOODBATH WARNING. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (October): 91.7. Expected: 81. Previous: 81.9. Almost 10 points above the forecast. The consumer is NOT scared, even with high prices and fuel costs. And that is exactly the problem. A strong consumer means the Fed has no reason to go easy. The December hike gets harder to stop, and yields stay high. The Fed decides tomorrow at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET). Stocks and crypto, be careful. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DROPS TODAY, ONE DAY BEFORE THE FED. LAST MONTH IT HIT A 12 YEAR LOW. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (October), out at 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET). Expected: 81. Previous: 81.9. IF confidence > 81 → market dumps IF confidence = 81 → nothing changes near-term IF confidence < 81 → market pumps In September the index fell 6.7 points. Consumers said prices and fuel costs were their biggest worry. Average inflation expectations for the next 12 months were 6.1%, and 68% of consumers expected higher interest rates. The Fed decides tomorrow at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET). A stronger consumer gives the Fed more room to hike in December. A weaker one gives it a reason to wait. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 THE MARKET IS BETTING ON A FED PAUSE AT OVER 90%. WARSH HAS NOT SAID A WORD. The Fed decides on October 28 at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET). After the hot CPI, hike odds briefly jumped to about 50%. Now they are 9.4%. Why the market expects a hold: → The Fed hiked on September 16 → Warsh gave no signal in Bangkok → Hiring is weak. September payrolls were only 29K → Oil is easing on Iran talks A hike in December is priced near 80%. So the base case is a hold with hawkish words. The words matter more than the decision: on September 16 the hike was priced above 90%, and stocks still fell. The risk: Warsh stopped giving signals before meetings, and GDP and PCE come out the day after the decision. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 THE WEEK THAT CAN BREAK THE MARKET: FED, ECB, BOJ, GDP, PCE AND BIG TECH EARNINGS. OCT 26-30 MONDAY, OCT 26 🟢 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 2-Year Note Auction Earnings: Verizon, Cadence and 8 others TUESDAY, OCT 27 🟡 12:15 UTC (8:15 AM ET): US ADP Weekly Employment Change 🔴 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) 🔴 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US New Home Sales (Sep) 🟡 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 5-Year Note Auction Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS and 41 others WEDNESDAY, OCT 28 🔴 14:30 UTC (10:30 AM ET): US EIA Crude Oil Inventories 🔴 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET): FOMC Rate Decision 🔴 18:30 UTC (2:30 PM ET): Warsh Press Conference Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet (both after the close) and 41 others THURSDAY, OCT 29 🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Q3 GDP (advance) 🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Core PCE (Sep) 🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Initial Jobless Claims 🔴 13:15 UTC (14:15 Frankfurt): ECB Rate Decision 🔴 13:45 UTC (14:45 Frankfurt): ECB Press Conference 🟡 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 7-Year Note Auction 🟡 23:30 UTC: Japan Tokyo Core CPI (Oct), Friday morning in Tokyo Earnings: Amazon, Intel, Coinbase, Strategy and 62 others FRIDAY, OCT 30 🔴 03:00 UTC (12:00 Tokyo): BoJ Rate Decision and Outlook Report 🟡 06:30 UTC: BoJ Press Conference 🟡 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): US Chicago PMI (Oct) Earnings: ExxonMobil, Chevron and 11 others What to watch: → FOMC on Wednesday: a hold is the base case. The real risk is the Warsh press conference and his tone on inflation and oil. → GDP and PCE on Thursday: consensus sees Q3 GDP at 3.2% and core PCE at 3.1% y/y. Goldman still expects one more hike in December. → Fed, ECB and BoJ all decide within three days. A surprise from any of them hits the dollar, the yen and bitcoin. → Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, Amazon Thursday. The AI trade gets tested after the mid-October tech sell-off, with Brent still above $100. → Coinbase reports Thursday after the close, Strategy the same day. Watch what they say about bitcoin. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BRENT JUST HIT $116.72, A SIX MONTH HIGH. THE IRAN WAR IS NOW A TAX ON THE WHOLE WORLD. Brent closed Friday at $116.72, up about 6% this week. WTI is above $103. Why now: → Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites. Aramco ordered the evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters → Two tanker attacks confirmed near Hormuz this week → Traders expect the US to resume strikes on Iran Oil is still moving through Hormuz, so a big part of this jump is fear. That can change fast in both directions. What it does to the world: → US gasoline rose 9.1% in September alone. US CPI is 3.7% → Euro area inflation is 3.8%, with energy up 18.8% → The IMF says Asia and Europe are hit the hardest → US, German and Japanese 10 year yields are at their highest since 2007, 2009 and 1996 → The Fed, the ECB, the BoJ and Korea are all tightening, and Canada may hike next week The IMF also warns that high oil prices could last into 2027, even if the conflict ends soon. Higher oil means higher inflation. Higher inflation means higher rates. Higher rates mean pressure on stocks and crypto. The Fed decides on October 28. If it talks tough on energy prices, the market will notice. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 US MANUFACTURING PMI CAME IN HOT AT 56. THE FED JUST GOT MORE PRESSURE TO KEEP HIKING. US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October flash): 56.0. Expected: 55.5. Previous: 55.9. Factories are growing faster than expected. That keeps the economy strong while inflation is already at 3.7%. A strong economy gives the Fed room to keep hiking. The Fed meets on October 27-28. Hike odds go up. Stocks and crypto feel the pressure. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.