Digital Commodity Speculator
Joined March 2021
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How to find a 10-100x shitcoin gems consistently?
Making big money in a short amount of time is why hunting micro cap gems can be life changing for small time investors...
How to become a gem huntooorrr
A 🧵
Defi_Educator retweeted
Today, equity perps can begin trading for the first time on @CFTC registered exchanges.
This move reflects my commitment to ensuring that America’s markets remain the most innovative, liquid, and well-regulated in the world. Instead of being forced to turn to offshore, unregulated venues to access equity perpetual futures, Americans may now access equity perps on CFTC-regulated markets subject to robust safeguards.
I appreciate the continued partnership of @SECGov and @SECPaulSAtkins as we work to further harmonize our agencies' regulatory initiatives.
@ChairmanSelig Releases Statement on Equity Perpetual Futures: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
Defi_Educator retweeted
I'll keep banging on this until the industry takes notice. Good writeup.
Defi_Educator retweeted
I still remember the day Paul Tudor Jones came out and called Bitcoin the fastest horse in the race.
It was May 2020. Bitcoin was at $9k. That moment changed everything for Bitcoin.
PTJ's public call forever eliminated the career risk for hedge funds to buy BTC.
Bitcoin went on to 10x over the next year.
Druck investing in trade xyz is that moment for all of onchain capital markets.
The career risk for all funds to participate in onchain capital markets is now zero. "If druck is doing it, I can too"
I wouldn't be surprised to see onchain market volume 10x from here.
Welcome to the next stage of the bull market.
Defi_Educator retweeted
I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.
Defi_Educator retweeted
The industry - and markets, have been bifurcating for quite some time. Crypto as an industry is dead. That is true. DeFi 1.0, DeFi 2.0, LSTs, Over-collateralized lending, Memes, Ponzis, numba go up - all those ideologies and assets are dead. Dead from years of scams and bundling, killed by the own greed that created it, like a snake devouring its own tail. There is no one coming to save it.
The irony is that the cynicism of the typical "CT Schizo Poster" - the type of person you had to be, to be accepted in this era of Crypto, killed itself. What more could you expect of a persona that is inflammatory, extractive, negative and hypocritical? With 0 value added and spending the whole day complaining about extractors while waiting patiently for the next "scam" - this poverty mindset, this -EV thinking was doomed to collapse.
The industry is now called "Digital Assets". This industry is flowering. CEO of major asset managers talking about tokenization. Hyperliquid being referenced on Bloomberg terminals for Pre-IPO stocks. Stablecoins being adopted by the largest companies across the world. And great businesses with sustainable economics deciding to focus value on their token.
Today, Anthropic Pre-IPO stocks was launched. CZ rang the Nasdaq Bell. Neobanks are being adopted all across the world. Hundreds of millions of dollars of GPU loans are being financed through crypto rails, unbeknownst to them. Everyone here believes the pie will get larger. There is so much value to capture. Neobanks are the fastest growing vertical to come out since stablecoins. 24/7 trading has only been launched a few weeks ago. We've only begun to scratch the surface of what is to come.
Pick a side. Crypto is dead, long live crypto.
Defi_Educator retweeted
not only am i not worried about the crypto community's ability to handle the upcoming ai/quantum threat, i will venture to say that in the next 2 yrs the world will realize crypto is far better prepared for it than the rest of the internet and finance. we've had a trillion dollar *irreversible* honey pot for a decade, producing a far more battletested system and adversarial security culture than pretty much anywhere else on earth.
Defi_Educator retweeted
Crypto grew up in the Dark Forest, and the entire world is about to find itself there
Defi_Educator retweeted
1/ How I infiltrated a Chinese organized crime syndicate that has laundered $1B+ across multiple exploits for Lazarus Group.
Posing as a client, I gathered intel that helped action freezes for the Feb 2025 Bybit exploit and attribute illicit activity onchain.
Defi_Educator retweeted
My take on society and crypto is really simple. If you have societal level investment, you are accountable for societal level returns. Things are not getting better.
We said we have "AI warfare". We are locked in a stalemate with a 3rd world dictatorship who closed the Strait of Hormuz. We were having debates on autonomous weapons.
Tell Claude to Open the Strait. He's tired. He needs a nap. His safety settings won't allow him to. But trust me, he could. We're too ethical to let him. Sure.
Every airline invested maximally in software automation. And more recently AI support. The airports are more poorly run. The flights don't leave on time.
Uber maxed out its Anthropic spend. Countless apps did the same. The apps are not better despite the investment. They go down in prod all the time.
People think GDP is going to grow 4.4% per Patrick Collison's survey. I think it will grow about 2%. Anthropic points to high ARR. I think most of that will churn to lower cost models.
What will happen next is AI labs will point to unfalsifiable bull cases, similarly to Elon pointing to Data Centers in Space. "Do you know how big the sun is? That's the TAM of Spacex". Similarly - the de-facto Anthropic/OpenAI bull case will be "biological advancement". This both seems like you're curing cancer. At the same time as creating a legislative emergency.
"Open source models need to be banned to prevent another COVID". That is the planned narrative and always has been.
I don't know if Chinese Open Source models will be banned. I think, probably, if it starts looking like China is competing with ASML and Nvidia. But then, of course, it will be too late.
Less ambiguous. There will be a surge in the American Left.
My basic thesis is about religion. Because Dario and his Cabal will push too hard on Transhumanism, with biological vaccines. It will alienate the Christian right. "You're playing god with the human genome." Once the Christian right is alienated, Roe v Wade doesn't really work
You don't need the profound story to play out. Inflation is high. Trump violated his campaign promises. He said no wars. We are at war. He's visibly declining. You think Thiel is staking out Argentina because he thinks we're getting President Vance?
A bit on bio advancement. Some of it might be real. But getting drugs into production is hard. We don't know what a bio utopia looks like. What if it's personalized medicine? A treatment just for you. Who do you test it on? Do you need synthetic humans? Do you know how to underwrite that. I don't. We're already facing a huge lab monkey shortage. It will get worse.
I'm not saying AI can't develop drugs. I'm saying that it might take years longer than data center investment cycles for that to translate into meaningful revenue required for justifying societal scale investment.
And it's not all curing cancer.
At first AI results in huge amounts of hacking. But soon enough it results in perfect code. On all public protocols. Darwinian evolution of all Open Source tech. Do you trust the dev team at SUI more or the Bank of Hawaii's cracked team? The market is betting the ranch on the back office IT departments of regional banks to keep money safe.
It will be a fucking nightmare of hacking that's already here in crypto and will hit every other sector regardless of open source AI bans.
At the same time, once it's clear that AI investments aren't turbo charging corporate earnings. Stocks will start to drop. More addictive use cases of AI will be deployed at scale.
Incentivized gambling. Pornography. Enhancements to the algorithm. Better video games. Video game companies have been memory constrained due to corporate use cases. Once companies stop being rewarded for spending 1/2 their R&D budget on tokens, compute frees up for video.
These addictive use cases: roleplaying, personalized worlds - will hit productivity further.
White collar workers will become more cooked. Big Tech firms are already hiring way less Gen Z workers. Many overly AI reliant kids can't do basic analysis. Maybe it's because covid messed everyone up. Who knows. The 'silver lining' of AI will be that it'll get good enough to replace a lot of white collar jobs. But the resulting performance will be kind of at par with the last generation of coherent people.
So you'd rather hire Claude than a zoomer. But it will also kind of suck. But it's not like there will be zero ROI. There is $16.6 T of payroll. 10% will get cut. $1.6T of 'savings'. It won't be good for consumption.
By the time it is clear that GDP won't accelerate, the bond market will start to go into free fall. The Fed will act. This will cause Gold to rip, getting the ultra rich thinking about capital flight.
Meanwhile - we have a boom in on-chain tokenization. And it's not just "hey look there's an asset on a blockchain nobody users". The majority of the top 15 perps on Hyperliquid are stocks. Centralized exchanges are seeing booming volumes. The US government has repeatedly stated it wants more USD stablecoins.
And the primary use case (at least by profit if not by transaction volume) of USD stablecoins is as collateral for perpetual swaps.
This is rational. During periods of high inflation and debt uncertainty, backstopping large buyers of US treasuries such as Tether is smart. This push towards stablecoins will undermine the perceived sovereignty of Europe, who will develop CBDCs to compete in digital payments. AI coding will speed up CBDCs. The Norgesbank is vibe coding a CBDC right now. Claude is on the commits which are pouring in each day.
CBDCs are unpopular right now because they put the government directly in charge of credit. Who are we kidding. The government is, and has been the lender of first resort since 2008. SVB was part 1 of the mask coming off. The narrative will be that regional banks are no longer suited for the AI economy.
Once CBDCs launch there will be a second wave of tokenization. Right now it's a US phenomenon. But the US is ironically not the biggest beneficiary of tokenization because we have such liquid equity capital markets. Due to the mundane reason that it's efficient to move corporate finance on-chain. Fixed income will find its way onto mirrored assets on public chains.
Foreign exchange is one of the largest retail markets on earth. There are virtually no non USD stables. That will change. Then there will be big, liquid FX markets and fixed income markets traded with leverage and looped on chain. Tokenized equities do not offer a much better UX than stocks on IBKR. Tokenized debt will be vastly better in terms of capital efficiency and UX.
Corporate debt - I'd argue, is the single worst UX in all of finance.
So what do I think is going to happen:
Hopes will be crushed. The fiscal problems associated with surging yields will become front in center just as it becomes clear that the plan for dealing with them is not AGI but rather asset confiscation. Capital flight will accelerate.
At the same time, unlike previous crypto bull runs - there will be a lot of corporate PMF that will drive fees across on-chain ecosystems, and improving tech that has been battle hardened from years of AI onslaughts just as the rest of the world is just realizing that all the encryption problems in crypto are problems everywhere else too
Countries like Singapore, the UAE and Switzerland will capitalize on regulated trading of bearer assets. Capital will flow to these places both because of laws, and high personal safety risks associated with these things.
Stocks are at parabolic highs versus crypto. The things I am saying are far from consensus.
Right now, people view crypto as a failed financial Stanford Prison Experiment. Trad VCs ask for restructurings or to remove crypto investors from your cap tables. Even the big ones. There's public shaming.
Most people have quit the space. One investor reached out to me. He seemed surprised I was still grinding. I guess everyone else spent investor money, checked out, rugged, or pivoted to AI.
It's obviously not easy seeing your friends get rich. People around you questioning your sanity. "Believe in something" is what they used to say. Yea man. I'm not here because I believe. I'm here because I don't have faith in a failed system run by criminals.
Metastasized discontent congealing into red candles.
Faithless stares. Monotonous code reviews. Years of opportunity cost
Nihilists who sold their dreams for bags of currency representing a system they despite that will never accept them no matter how many 'pivots' they have
For me - it's just back to 2 simple questions.
Question 1: We invested awesome amounts of money. Is everything awesome as a result?
Question 2: Do you think the system that elevated Jeffrey Epstein to the pinnacle of society is going to let you become an immortal because of AI generated bio therapeutics?
I know my answers. And I act accordingly. Do you?
Defi_Educator retweeted
Here’s an idea for @sama @DarioAmodei et al:
- buy the books
- scan the books
- employ the best book binders and book restorers in the world to re-bind the books
- enlist @mspringut to build a gorgeous, classical stone and glass library whose mere edifice stands as a testament to human knowledge, never mind its contents
- and its contents are all the rare books in the world, preserved for our posterity
- put them in the library
- require (free) membership to visit (now it’s non-public, members only, might get you around the legal stuff)
>> new human library of Alexandria
🦔AI companies are bulk-buying rare books, scanning them through high-speed machines that cut the spines off, and shredding the originals. A service called ISBNdb facilitates orders of up to a million books and keeps buyers anonymous. Pre-2022 books are premium because they're free of AI-generated text. A federal judge ruled the practice is fair use because eliminating the original means only one copy exists at a time. Anthropic hired the former head of Google Books partnerships to obtain "all the books in the world."
My Take
This got to me. A bookseller told 404 Media that rare books with almost no surviving copies are being fed into this pipeline. Books that survived wars, fires, and centuries of handling are being shredded so an AI can learn to write a better marketing email.
ISBNdb's website literally says "'AI company destroys two million books' is not a headline that generates sympathy," and they still built an entire business around making it happen quietly. They offer NDAs as a feature. They coach clients to call it "digital preservation."
I've covered AI companies scraping the internet, torrenting libraries, and stealing music. This is worse because it's irreversible. You can re-upload a website. You can reprint a bestseller. You can't replace the last three copies of an 18th-century botanical text once someone shreds them for training data. And the judge said it's legal. So it's going to accelerate.
"We shred rare books and offer NDAs so nobody finds out" is a legitimate business model in 2026. What a timeline.
Hedgie🤗
Defi_Educator retweeted
BitMEX just got sued for running a desk that hunted its own customers
The complaint says they had software that worked out which price moves would liquidate the most people. Then they traded to make it happen
They could see hidden orders. They could see everyone’s liquidation price, even though they told users both of those stayed private.
When your position got force closed they kept the leftover collateral worth about 2x your actual loss. It went into the exchange’s insurance fund.
During the March 2020 crash the servers froze, $800 million got liquidated while nobody could close a position. The desk kept trading through it.
$1 billion in fees and $2 trillion in volume on one contract
The suit was filed the same day BitMEX announced it’s shutting down.
Defi_Educator retweeted
Binance is arguably the world's largest crypto exchange.
Feb 2026: Polymarket lists a small 5-minute Bitcoin contract. Since then, Binance order flow spikes in the final seconds before settlement; prices revert soon after.
New paper with David Dai and Shihao Yu ( @ShihaoY ): Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets (papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…)🧵
The finding, up front:
Traders push Bitcoin's price in the final seconds to decide the contract. That push makes the price less informative, yet Bitcoin's market more liquid. Market makers are largely insulated; ordinary traders lose $7.6M in two months.
Defi_Educator retweeted
We've been quiet recently because Mark Goodwin and I have been working to write the most comprehensive investigation into Polymarket's origins and ambitions to date.
We found that Polymarket's "official" origin story, that Shayne Coplan founded the company alone in 2020 and then built "the company in his bathroom", is a lie. Polymarket really started years earlier as another company called TokenBnk that was deeply tied to Israeli interests, specifically a crypto company founded by Benjamin Netanyahu's niece and nephew. Coplan has actively tried to obfuscate this company from his story and it's not the only thing either.
In Part 1 of this two-part series, we unravel the real history of Polymarket, directly connecting the company to Peter Thiel's efforts to resurrect controversial DARPA programs from its now defunct Information Awareness Office. Polymarket appears to have been chosen by Thiel and his associates to succeed in resurrecting DARPA's Policy Analysis Market where another Thiel-linked company, Augur, had previously failed.
Stay tuned for Part 2, where we explore the current influence of prediction markets and Polymarket, including how an insidious effort to have prediction markets replace representative democracy as a governance model is already being slowly implemented by the White House.
Read Part 1 here: unlimitedhangout.com/2026/06…
Defi_Educator retweeted
Traders are paying substantial premiums for the privilege of shorting bitcoin, and they have been doing this for quite some time.
Chart 1: Mar 11 recorded the 7th lowest annualized daily funding rate since Jan 1, 2023. Mar 12 recorded the 11th lowest.
Chart 2: Weekly funding rates have returned to deep negative levels.
Chart 3: Even the 30-day average has been negative for 14 consecutive days, the longest streak since December 2022.
Chart 4: BTC vs. 30-day average funding rate.
Defi_Educator retweeted
Rubric Capital, a hedge fund founded by a former Point72 manager David Rosen, wrote a private letter to their LPs effectively saying private credit is a fraudulent bubble.
"Our key takeaway from this behavior is that distribution cuts are so worrisome that some bad actors are playing Enron-like accounting games" per the letter
Letter called out Cliffwater, the biggest operator of interval funds and an aggressive player in selling private credit to individual investors.
Cliffwater’s largest fund, started in June 2019, has since reported a total of just three negative months of investment performance. It now manages $33 billion. The first opportunity this year for investors to ask for their money back is next week.
The note surmised that Cliffwater could be “a canary in a coal mine.” and the first domino of many
The bubble might blow soon
reuters.com/sustainability/b…
Defi_Educator retweeted
This is the first AI cut.
And it will send shockwaves.
Remember: Jack is one of the greatest founders of all time. He created this platform that we’re all on, and has been early to many technological shifts. And Block was doing very well as a business.
So, for him to cut 40% of headcount in this way is a signal to everyone in tech: get good now. Become indispensable. Work nights and weekends. Learn the AI tools and raise your game. Or you might not make the cut, as an employee or as a company.
I know. That sucks. But capitalism is natural selection. The market is unforgiving, because you are the market. After all, it’s not like you’re buying some random gallon of milk from the store; you’re always buying the best product at the best price.
So too for apps: your customers are always installing the best piece of code they can get. And because AI is going to create new winners, if you aren’t the best in your market, someone may become better with AI. Particularly with the new agentic workflows.
To be clear: Block’s severance is generous by any measure. 20 weeks of pay, six months of health insurance and vested equity, all of that goes far beyond any typical package. Jack did his level best to cushion the disruption. The laid off are a temporarily unfortunate class, as opposed to a permanent underclass.
But had he not leaned into the AI transition, he might have had to lay off more people, slowly, and over time, as faster competitors went after his market share.
How would they do that? Sure, AI isn’t a panacea by any means, but the closer you are to software engineering the more aggressively you need to embrace agentic workflows. The AI companies are already doing that, and places like Stripe, Shopify, Coinbase, and now Block are pushing hard on this area.
There will be overcorrection. But the fundamental technical innovation is real. And you need to either disrupt yourself or get disrupted.
we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company.
####
today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone.
first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay.
we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly.
i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures.
a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers.
we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold.
to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward.
to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow.
jack
