$ASTS, $QS, $AUR | economics, theology, philosophy, and the UAP phenomenon | Lost access to @Defiantclient
Joined June 2025
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They paid for the launches and we have the launches, but SpaceX is prioritizing Starship. The launches will restart again after the pause.
Kevin Chen retweeted
One of these things isn't like the other. Starlink mobile in their recent request to add Grain management 800MHz spectrum to SCS, also requested a waiver of the out of bound emission power flux density (OOBE PFD) limit because as applied "will be massively overprotective and would unnecessarily hinder SpaceX's ability to provide service in 800 MHz."
$ASTS says that it doesn't need a waiver (better explained in the Cat thread) largely because of the size of the satellites. ATT/VZ are going to have a negative opinion on this waiver as the Grain spectrum directly abuts their 850 MHz spectrum. If a waiver is granted to SL mobile (and I think this is more likely than not), it is likely that AST can get a similar waiver which will increase the link budget and deliver higher spectral efficiency. Win win.
Note that this also doesn’t mean that @vivobr won’t add @AST_SpaceMobile to their offering or replace Starlink either.
For example @deutschetelekom
Deployables will pretty much become redundant once @AST_SpaceMobile has a mature constellation beaming broadband directly to devices without the need for any terrestrial cell towers or dishy terminals.
$ASTS: This story is making the rounds so I am going to address it: floridatoday.com/story/tech/…
On October 21, SpaceX VP Kiko Dontchev stated that SpaceX has a 6 week gap before the next Falcon 9 launch out of Florida, reason being for prep for Starship's debut in Florida. The 6 week gap aligns with Ben Cooper's manifest noting a "late November" launch for the Northrop Grumman Cygnus NG-25 mission, so this should be the next F9 launch being referenced by Kiko Dontchev.
What this means for @AST_SpaceMobile:
+ BB14-16 are at Astrotech integrating for launch, and will be ready to go as soon as SpaceX Falcon 9 can launch them probably in December.
+ Why did AST ship if they don't have a launch? In my view it's one or both of two reasons: (1) AST was blindsided by SpaceX's sudden pause and/or (2) AST shipped to make room at their factory
+ This 6 week gap explains AST's silence on launch date PR. Their hands are literally tied.
+ Note that this Falcon 9 pause is not unique-to-ASTS as it impacts all Falcon 9 launches out of Florida, although you could make an argument that AST's payload is really the only one being impacted by this pause. That being said, I don't know the status of other Falcon 9 payloads that may or may not be impacted. Prep for Starship is a good excuse/reason though but yes it is unfortunate that AST's launch is being impacted.
+ How AST manages the narrative from here will be key, whether they do it with an interim update now or wait for the Q3 earnings call on November 9. The best thing for us shareholders and sentiment would be if AST can signal that production is going well and batches are continuing to get done and stockpile for a more rapid launch cadence starting in December when Falcon 9 returns to operation in Florida.
--> Note that if AST's production is going well in the background, then I think this pause from SpaceX helps explain the unusual gap between BB11-13 and BB14-16. And as mentioned in bullet 3 above, this explains the weird comms from AST surrounding BB14-16 batch.
--> Astrotech should have plenty of room to accept more BlueBirds if we can ship another batch or two while we wait for SpaceX to resume F9 operations in Florida.
In adjacent/related news, our boots on the ground are reporting that more shipping containers are arriving in Midland soon, which is a positive sign for more shipments coming in the near term: xitter.cf/DanteePacheco/status/2…
That is true, but I am not convinced they are pausing F9 to work on Starship, just to delay AST. imo they are doing this pause whether or not AST exists.
Block 2 ASIC has 10,000 MHz processing capacity which can be divided by ~2000+ cells and the speed per beam will depend on how much MHz channel is being served in the specific beam.
For emergency services, the most important is voice call capability which is only some ~100 kbps required. Also some light data such as Google Maps and some data transfers.
So if one beam has a 10 MHz channel, with 3 bits/Hz spectral efficiency that's 30 Mbps. Block 1 actually peaked at ~10 bits/Hz.
The first NG-AST launch back will be 4 BlueBirds only, so not much of a pile there compared to 3 on Falcon 9.
$ASTS: The @FCC is laser focused on supporting American dominance in D2D.
From the Press Release: docs.fcc.gov/public/attachme…
"The FCC is taking aggressive actions across multiple fronts to secure America’s leadership in D2D.
Earlier this year, the Space Bureau granted SpaceX’s authorization to build, launch, and deploy a 15,000 satellite D2D constellation, as well as @AST_SpaceMobile's authorization for a 248-satellite system.
And at its October 29, 2026 Open Meeting, the FCC will vote on two groundbreaking item that bring spectrum abundance for D2D by: (1) proposing an auction of the 1675-95 MHz and 2020-2025 MHz bands; and (2) seeking to open up approximately 500 megahertz of additional wireless spectrum that may be used for D2D services."
BREAKING: FCC Approves Amazon Leo's Acquisition of Globalstar
@BrendanCarrFCC announces the news live on @MTSlive —
“This is part of this new, robust investment we’re seeing in direct-to-device technologies.”
Learn more about the approval🧵⬇️
Maybe, but I am not sure we have traded worse than the basket. Looks similar to me.
The instance where we did trade poorly was when the SpaceX-Grain news was made, unrelated to launch.
ASTS would be able to creep into a little bit of the rural market. Keep in mind the "200 Mbps" that you are speaking of is for the entire beam, shared by all simultaneous users in the beam.
They have said they are no longer launching Starlink out of Florida but will continue some in California (for those unique orbits and inclinations). I believe the stopping of Florida Starlink is to prepare for Starlink V3 launches.
Most of Starlink revenue is fixed broadband and AST isn't disrupting that. Amazon Leo is.
Even if they were competing services, I am not sure if SpaceX actually thinks AST is a real threat to themselves.