living my best life
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Joined March 2016
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Definelegit retweeted
i think worlds invites are a lot like graduating college. having money gives you a huge advantage, no question. but having an advantage isn’t the same thing as it being impossible without it. some people just have to work a lot harder to reach the same goal.
Definelegit retweeted
The way @michaeljburry is interpreting this stock award package makes no sense.
@ryancohen has the OPTION to buy $GME shares at $20.66. As he meets each milestone, he can buy more shares at $20.66. If the stock is trading anywhere near $20.66 or under, his package is worthless.
They are not normal options that have premium that you can trade with other investors. They merely give him the privilege to buy shares with his own money at 20.66.
So if Ryan hypothetically diluted shareholders by 10x, and the share price remained the same, his package would give him zero benefit because he would just be buying shares at the same price everyone else can.
That makes zero sense.
The only way his stock award plan makes sense is if he gets share prices much higher than $20.66.
$EBAY
Burry on substack about $GME
Regarding GME: Hypothetical my solution may be, yet it is remarkable how a scalpel can be used differently than a meat cleaver. The reason I put so much thought into my structure.was not to make ir complicated. I wanted to avoid dilution and recourse debt, and I felt Ryan would want to maximize his ownership of the combined entity. I also was interested in preserving NOLs. All while achieving similar post deal EBITDA to more debt heavy, dilutive approaches.
As well, I took the challenge as breaking new ground and revolutionizing capital markets strategy at face value.
Perhaps I just thought it was obvious that maximizing function while minimizing blood loss ,and recovery time would be the goal.
What is happening instead makes perfect sense. Ryan is following the incentives before him. His compensation package by focusing on incentivizes on market cap and EBITDA obvious incentivized 10x dilution of shareholders while guaranteeing that in that event, he would mostly be kept whole.
While most GME bulls are taking this as that 100B market cap is a 10x type of incentive for shareholders, Ryan is proving the opposite. The whole structure, if done twice, gets him a stake 10x more valuable by diluting shareholders 10x. His proposal is almost halfway. By done twice, I mean he would do eBay then do a similar trick again.
Ryan is promising huge cost cuts and massive jumps in profitability. This also makes sense. It is the Wall Street playbook. If eBay doubles its EBIT margin of 20% to 40%z, it would be on par with Meta and 50% better than Alphabet.
But it will would not get eBay to a spot where it could pay off the debt in a few years, as Ryan is promising.
The debt level needed to get this deal done would likely take 7-10 years to pay down and even then only if all capital was directed to such a task.
My solution would have broken new ground and would have required a CEO in full control of its board to ignore the incentives in his new pay package. Makes perfect sense that did not happen.
It almost never happens. Which is why Warren Buffett is so respected.
Definelegit retweeted
Dear eBay $eBay shareholders,
We urge you to support @ryancohen and GameStop in the acquisition offer.
In addition to your insiders/board directors:
1) not buying ANY shares the last 5 years…
2) selling $120M worth of stock the last 5 years…
3) we are willing to bet there is NO board member / insider that uses eBay as an actual user on the platform.
Ryan Cohen, meanwhile, has been an active eBay user for the last SIX YEARS!!!
He grew up on eBay.
It’s meaningful to him, and he’ll treat it like a family business. He’ll own it forever.
Ryan will take $0 salary, and he will *most likely* (speculating here) continue to buy shares with personal capital.
He has done this consistently with $GME since taking over.
If push comes to shove, support Ryan.
There aren’t many CEOs of his caliber.
You won’t regret it.
Definelegit retweeted
The people running eBay bought $0 of stock in the open market in the last 5 years.
eBay insiders sold more than $120M in the last 5 years.
I don’t think anyone is factoring in Robinhood allowing day trading now without 25k capital…. I think that’s gonna change some things tbh. More volatility.
Not gonna lie, i don’t get how this bearish sentiment flipped so fast. With nothing really changing, it’s why I took my 616 qqq puts yesterday that smoked us…. We made 44k with 0dte and gave back about 22k in losses lately. I don’t have the time it takes to watch 0dte nor do I want to. So I’m gonna dial it back, take a little break as I just don’t get what’s happening in the market right now.
This market is fucked I’m gonna stop day trading for a while, I got back my all time loss and I’m right breakeven at that, I’m gonna take that win, and try and move on to something else.
Great day overall 3.6k profit, could have taken no loss on the 6445 calls but was in 3.6k unrealized gain after sitting in a 7k unrealized loss at the bottom, I knew this would be whipsaw so the plan was take a small loss and get better contracts at the bottom, it worked great did the same play yesterday. Will look at more patients still.
This is more bearish than bullish, when we run this hard overnight over 1% gain it normally holds by morning possibly spittle lower but I expect is to open green tomorrow see resistance at 642-645, and back down we go. Let’s see how this plays out.
RSI on the 1 day for the 5 and 14 respectively are approaching oversold. People need to remember what these overnight pumps do in this situation, the low liquidity move raises RSI back up a bit and we can see continued down side. I’m not convinced even in the slightest we are anywhere near the bottom. I do think this might lead to a short bounce but if we don’t break and hold there previous red day highs then we are still going down.
You also have the daily Vix chart not making a new high and a bit of a reversal candle forming. I think we see downside on Vix short term and a bit of a bounce on everything else. The overall sentiment will determine if this will turn on to a rally to just a dead cat bounce with more downside ahead.
Beautiful day, had good patients on first two trades, and then got a little inpatient as I wanted to be done for the day and get a little scalp to finish, it went against me but my thesis was intact, and I was fine with letting it have some room to breath. As I was up 1.5k for the day already. At the top 6405 I saw a good opportunity for this to break down again hard. Took it and boom move came almost immediately, I decided to close my 6375 puts for a small loss as I was up 2.7k on the day and didn’t want to wait longer and have it get range bound so just sold, I would t do it any different other than being a little more patient as that 6375 put I got in on the middle of the move, and didn’t take my small scalp and move on. I’m on vacation so a 2.7k days feels wonderful, as always I left a good amount on the table because we are trying to trade the more sure exit not the max profit.
Just some transparency, all of my trades the past 3 weeks 70-85% win rate. 32-36 winning trades, and 8-10 Losing trades. A lot of the 8-10 trades were me breaking rules not being disciplined.
What a day, took a put lotto for EOD as I saw it most likely going LOD for close. Got an extra 175… 3.8k on the day and 11.5k on the week, 26.5k on the month just speechless.
Just an amazing start to my first 3 weeks focusing on 0dte SPXW plays, great day took 2 trades I’ll post below… Done for the day for real lol. 😂
3530 profit on the day! And last trade got filled at the flush below the bottom, great feeling getting that fill when it reverted right back up. I think I’d see that fill price of 23.5 later today as well but would not have wanted to sit through it so glad it got filled. Very choppy day so far, they are keeping it coasting on the bottom RSI range which is what I thought, overall sentiment had me okay puts as well, as I knew RSI could stay low to oversold for sometime today and puts still print if bought on pops.
