D2theK

The risk to reward does not really get better. Bitcoin is now well within its first major pullback after pushing off of the $58k low. We have: - Cycle bottom signal - Bull market signal - Reclaim of all key EMA+ SMA's - Monthly higher high - Bearish break of structure You couldn't ask for more data to confirm that $58k is the low. And now, we have a retest of the 50SMA, which is the strongest bear/bull trend market around. In addition, short liquidation is at $13bn whilst longs is only $2bn. The setup doesn't get better than this really. However, most people will completely ignore all of this extremely insightful data. Data that has always confirmed trend shifts and valuable areas to allocate. Most are mega bearish into this, which is historically the most bullish time after the bottom. Invalidation levels are also so clear. Lose all the key EMA+SMA's below $72k and you can cut it. But don't position? Then you will be chasing and buying the highs once more. You have to open your eyes and let your brain actually see what is happening here, and historically, what that means. It could not be clearer.

Everybody needs to understand this. Way too many people care about always being right. And that is not the game you should be trying to play. A smart investor uses the data and probabilities to formulate a thesis. But a thesis can ALWAYS be wrong. You can never know for sure if your ideas will be correct, but, you have to take action and therefore, take risk. So when we do that, we want to make the decisions that the data is telling us are the most likely. For example, right now. We have so many people flipping bearish or staying bearish at the end of 5 weeks of down, after bearish structure break, with a retest of the 50SMA. But the data tells us we should not be doing that. Bitcoin has reclaimed the 1W 50SMA and the Supertrend 1W has flipped bullish. 100% of the time that this has happened, it has confirmed the low and has sent Bitcoin on its largest price runs ever. There has never been a time this has happened, and Bitcoin hasn't gone on to push, at minimum, 250%. 250% is the worst performance of Bitcoin under these conditions. And it has NEVER gone on to new lows. So, why, when we have this extremely insightful data, would we choose to not side with it? Any smart investor would side with this. It is literally a 100% track record of confirming trend shifts. However, for some reason, this is ignored. It does not guarantee the same outcome, but NOTHING will ever guarantee that, no matter what it is. You will never get a guarantee. The closest you will ever get to a guarantee, is something that has never failed before. If it does fail for the first time, you cut your losses and move on. That is the game.