Derek Ortt

Public service announcement: The hurricane cone is NOT the cone of uncertainty. It is NOT the cone of impact. It merely depicts the area where the storm will be based upon historical error. An ensemble probability is a better approximation of the uncertainty

what is with the GFS insisting on a November TC outbreak in the Atlantic?

One last US tropical threat? GFS is insisting on a Hawaii threat late next week. However, the far more likely scenario is a hurricane passing a fair distance south of the islands as per GDM Plenty of time to monitor

Thankfully, Arnab has weakened a fair bit before making landfall. Well timed EWRC

no matter what Earl Hebner or Helen Keller, I mean IMD, says, this is approaching super cyclonic intensity

IMD obviously does not look at data This was 100 kts many hours ago. Even the blind can see this is more than the 70 kts they say it is

This escalated quickly

how many more times does the gfs have to predict a bullshit phantoncane? And it's not like it is doing this 10 days out. It for a full day had one inside of 5 days. Nobody believed it, as nobody should Shows what a joke our global model is

Think Disturbance 63, the East Coast storm, is starting to detach from the front. Also seeing anticyclonic flow aloft over the low now

Very surprised JMA is ignoring the AI models and is still taking Changi toward Taiwan

Regarding the clock issue with BYU, how in the world does the final play only take 3 seconds? I don't think the stadium clock started with the snap. Now, that does not excuse the lack of a PI call. Even an AEW ref could have seen that

and ND is NOT a playoff team They need to go buy a QB. Carr simply is not hacking it against the top teams. He beats up on shit teams, but cannot get the win against the elite

of course, no flag on an obvious DPI Refs need to understand, they ARE deciding the game by not calling obvious penalties. Same thing last week on Alabama

when forced to pass excessively, CJ Carr cannot hack it. Rick Meier 2.0

CJ Carr is NOT a top level QB. Has always struggled against real teams

Did Guam ever get lucky. Eyewall missed them by about 6 miles

One ultra scary radar image. Any north wobble is a direct hit from a likely violent typhoon on Guam

Champi is intensifying rapidly. Northern eyewall could strike southern Guam as a violent typhoon in about 12 hours

seems the college rule on a catch is you have to have the ball for a minimum of 5 business days