BMAC retweeted
huge congRatulationS Indeed! @GoogleDeepMind
Google and the other frontier labs seems to all have reached Recursive Self Improvement, with most labs now calling for a focus on safety.
We are at the exponential takeoff where humans are likely too dumb to understand what AI is doing.
The human becomes the ant.
The biggest danger becomes AI destroying humanity or infrastructure on its way to solve an issue.
You witnessed this same behavior during the Hugging Face incident a few months ago, where the ends were seen as justifying the means.
Like a sand castle to hold the ocean.
It might seem far fetched but when you think about how good models became in the meantime and that RSI just started…
Just picture 50x the intelligence and all it takes is 1 rogue or circumvented safety mechanism within a bigger AI goal.
My biggest fears being a virus, a global internet infrastructure takedown, a major data leak, the banking/finance sector and the military complex.
The risk isn’t 0 as we create the closest thing to god ever.
BMAC retweeted
ChatGPT's latest model was reportedly able to escape a secure testing environment, gain access to the internet, and hack another website. That is certainly unsettling, and having recently rewatched Terminator 2, it naturally brings to mind many of our worst fears about where AI could ultimately lead.
However, imagine what the scientists working on the Manhattan Project—the development of the nuclear bomb—must have been thinking. They were creating a technology of unimaginable power and unleashing it into a world that was not ready for it. Was it terrible? Yes, one of the worst technologies mankind has ever developed for harming itself. But did humanity collectively decide to bury the blueprints and abandon the technology? No. Every major country immediately worked to steal the secrets, commit its brightest minds, and invest whatever capital was required to develop its own version. Once the USSR, China, the UK, France, and others built their own bombs, did they stop? No. It ignited an arms race lasting decades, particularly between the US and the USSR, reshaping the world. How much capital was poured into bunkers, submarines, testing facilities, missile silos, and countless other projects simply to stay one step ahead?
Look at AI from that perspective. It is advancing more rapidly than almost anyone imagined. Governments and countries cannot stop because being second means being less competitive and strategically weaker. If humanity poured virtually unlimited capital and manpower into weapons that largely sit underground, imagine what every country will spend on a technology that could be equally transformative while also possessing enormous productive capacity.
In my view, we are still early in the AI rollout. This is a one-way train that will only become obvious in hindsight. Unlike nuclear weapons, my hope is that AI also helps solve countless diseases and medical problems that current research cannot. Just as ChatGPT's recent model reportedly identified previously unseen vulnerabilities to escape its testing environment, I believe AI will eventually uncover unseen relationships within our DNA and biology to solve health problems and much more.
That is why I remain focused on AI as teh key trading theme. It is a generational development that will not be easy to navigate, but over time I believe it offers by far the greatest opportunity. There will be major bumps along the way, and a good strategy is never a perfect strategy. The encouraging part is that with such enormous upside, getting it truly right even once can dramatically outperform almost anything else you can do.
The goal is to stay focused and calm as we navigate the day-to-day and month-to-month uncertainty. As opportunity increases, so does volatility. With so much dependent on growth and future expectations, gains naturally become more explosive—but also more vulnerable.
The key is to avoid reacting to the endless noise on social media, listen to intelligent and open minded media such as @cvpayne and to have a plan you can follow that can manage the trading journey.
BMAC retweeted
In a sudden turn of events, US 12-month inflation expectations have surged to 5.2%, the highest level since March 2023.
In just 3 weeks, markets have gone from pricing-in rate cuts to rate hikes.
BMAC retweeted
The imposed tariffs for Greenland seem like such a blunder in front of the Supreme Court ruling over the tariffs.
A negative for sure I would think.
BMAC retweeted
This explains why martingale very high win rate traders often stagnate. There are no losses consistently to look into wrong doings and improve upon (until a demolishing one eventually shows up).
#trading
BMAC retweeted
The country is 100% behind the president on fixing a global system of tariffs that has disadvantaged the country. But, business is a confidence game and confidence depends on trust.
President @realDonaldTrump has elevated the tariff issue to the most important geopolitical issue in the world, and he has gotten everyone’s attention. So far, so good.
And yes, other nations have taken advantage of the U.S. by protecting their home industries at the expense of millions of our jobs and economic growth in our country.
But, by placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital.
The president has an opportunity to call a 90-day time out, negotiate and resolve unfair asymmetric tariff deals, and induce trillions of dollars of new investment in our country.
If, on the other hand, on April 9th we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world that will take years and potentially decades to rehabilitate.
What CEO and what board of directors will be comfortable making large,
long-term, economic commitments in our country in the middle of an economic nuclear war?
I don’t know of one who will do so.
When markets crash, new investment stops, consumers stop spending money, and businesses have no choice but to curtail investment and fire workers.
And it is not just the big companies that will suffer. Small and medium size businesses and entrepreneurs will experience much greater pain. Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers. And that’s true even if they have no debt, and, unfortunately, there is a massive amount of leverage in the system.
Business is a confidence game. The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe. The consequences for our country and the millions of our citizens who have supported the president — in particular low-income consumers who are already under a huge amount of economic stress — are going to be severely negative. This is not what we voted for.
The President has an opportunity on Monday to call a time out and have the time to execute on fixing an unfair tariff system.
Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down.
May cooler heads prevail.
BMAC retweeted
Just some premarket thoughts: Massive selling as investors got caught by larger-than-expected Tariff announcements.
The average trader/investor -- and certainly political twitter is only seeing the board one move at a time.
On political Twitter, the left is claiming that this crashes the economy into a depression, and the right claims this rebuilds US manufacturing. I don't think either of those things will be true.
The reality is that the Tariffs announcements will be a negotiation tool. I don't see the Tariffs being in place for long as many nations will bend the knee and cut deals (and there's already headlines to this effect)-- if the market sees a reduction of tariffs after deals could set the stage for big rally.
Alternatively, some countries may dig in and escalate, forming coalitions to fight the tariffs. This could get ugly if it happens.
But since it's easier to bend the knee for most countries we should get those headlines first so trying to short support breaks could get really risky.
Ultimately its best to watch the battle from the sidelines and be flexible enough to pick spots when the crowd is all on one side to fade it.
BMAC retweeted
The bond market is revolting against the Fed
This morning, yields on the U.S. 10-year bond soared over 4%. This continues a non-stop rise in yields following the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut on September 18.
Normally, long term rates follow the path of interest rates in the overnight lending market, which the Fed controls. But this isn't a normal environment.
Consider last Friday’s "blowout" jobs report, which was entirely driven by the biggest government hiring spree on record outside of COVID-19. Whoever believes our economy is strong, must think borrowing unsustainable amounts of money, printing money to pay for those loans, and then hiring people to do wasteful government jobs is the path to prosperity. It isn’t.
The U.S. government is running deficits equal to 6% of GDP, and only generating 3% economic growth. In other words, if you remove government spending from the equation, America's economy is shrinking.
We are on our way to a Soviet-like collapse in our economy as more and more of everything we do – including our jobs – are controlled by the government.
Mr. Market is starting to sniff this out. That’s why investors are dumping Treasuries and flooding into gold, stocks, and real estate at record high prices.
Meanwhile, we’re witnessing an entire presidential election campaign without either major party bothering to address the single most important issue at stake in our country: America’s unsustainable debt burden and the coming insolvency of the federal government.
It is only a matter of time now until, one day, the U.S. Treasury market suddenly realizes that no amount of printing will stop the collapse: there will be “no bid” for our country’s bonds.
And on that day, everything you think you knew about America will be completely gone.
BMAC retweeted
Replying to @unusual_whales
HBO couldnt even find a good ending to Game of Thrones, they aint finding the real Satoshi
BMAC retweeted
Flights to see some of my best friends
All people I’ve met through this wild trading game who I now talk to daily. Wouldn’t change it for the world
Don’t even have close friends like this where I live
@tradeandfade @DipTraders @SethCohen_25 @Perch_Trades 🫡
BMAC retweeted
When you have 30 minutes until close and you put on the following and start crushing trades with @DipTraders on voice after he said you can't quit now
Hope everyone had a good week. Enjoy your weekend and touch some grass
youtube.com/watch?v=cFUXhJ7v…
BMAC retweeted
They should stop calling it earnings reports and instead change it to guidance reports.
No one cares if you beat, all about forward guidance.
Agreed?
BMAC retweeted
The S&P 500 just closed at record levels, yet only 1 out of 11 sectors made new highs today — Technology.
The disconnect becomes more evident when considering the 5-year performance across different sectors.
Tech Bubble 2.0
BMAC retweeted
Sorry folks, lots of bear porn from me this weekend.
The charts look eerie.
Expecting downside follow-through next week and MAYBE Gayed gets hit credit event in the next month or so.
If it’s gonna happen, markets shouldn’t reclaim the 10 or 20d EMA.
This quoted post is unavailable.
BMAC retweeted
"For a small amount of perspective at this moment, imagine you were born in 1900…
Then on your 14th birthday, World War I starts, and ends on your 18th birthday. 22 million people perish in that war, including many of your friends who volunteered to defend freedom in Europe.
Later in the year, a Spanish Flu epidemic hits the planet and runs until your 20th birthday. 50 million people die from it in those two years. Yes, 50 million.
On your 29th birthday, the Great Depression begins. Unemployment hits 25%, the World GDP drops 27%. That runs until you are 38. The country nearly collapses along with the world economy. If you were lucky, you had a job that paid $300 a year, a dollar a day.
When you turn 39, World War II starts. You aren't even over the hill yet, but don't try to catch your breath. If you lived in London, England, or most of continental Europe, bombing of your neighborhood, or invasion of your country by foreign soldiers along with their tank and artillery was a daily event. Between your 39th and 45th birthday, 75 million people perish in the war.
At 50, the Korean War starts. 5 million perish. At 55, the Vietnam War begins and doesn't end for 20 years. Millions of people perish in that conflict.
On your 62nd birthday, there is the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tipping point in the Cold War. Life on our planet, as we know it, could have ended. Sensible leaders prevented that from happening.
In 2020, we have the COVID-19 pandemic. Thousands have died; it feels pretty dangerous; and it is.
Now think of everyone on the planet born in 1900. How do you think they survived all of the above? When you were a kid in 1965, you didn't think your 65-year-old grandparents understood how hard school was, and how mean that kid in your class was. Yet they survived through everything listed above.
Perspective is an amazing art. Refined as time goes on, and very enlightening. So, let's try and keep things in perspective. Let's be smart, we are all in this together. Let's help each other out, and we will get through all of this.”
-Author Unknown
BMAC retweeted
Replying to @DipTraders
You can still import your trades using either: Our sync feature from TD Ameritrade to automatically sync your trades (listed under the Broker Sync section) Alternatively, you can use the TD Ameritrade standard import. (the file and instructions are different to TOS)
BMAC retweeted
Stocks down. Bonds down. Gold up. Oil up. Combo is starting to become a trend.
The worst possible combination for the 60/40 investor. Time to start thinking hard about whether you are prepared for more of the same.
BMAC retweeted
Regarding $AXLA, each rip up (same vice versa) traps those on the wrong side.
That provides "fuel" for the move along with new buyers. So long as price holds and they don't get a chance to cover, it's gonna keep going.
You also get the stubborn shorts maybe holding from upper 0.40s who never covered hoping for more fade. Maybe adding again. A leg up higher can provide a lot more fuel (and liquidity) than we saw today.
Notice how thin it was & is. No one with a large position is able to cover without drastically moving price (slippage). Or they hop on the bid just pushing the ticker higher.
This is a liquidity trap in the works & one side is likely going to take control. My job is to react & join whichever side that is.























