Act Before Disaster Disrupts - AI-driven natural disaster, climate risk, and location intelligence to protect lives, safeguard assets, and prevent costly losses
San Jose, CA
Joined June 2018
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We checked April 1 snowpack near 17 ski regions in every strong El Nino winter since 1972. The Northwest almost always loses. Arizona and New Mexico usually win. Utah and Colorado show almost no signal. Even the winners had a melt-out year.
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This El Nino is running second only to 1997, and NOAA gives it a 75% chance of a record by late fall. A record El Nino is not a guaranteed record winter: NWS flood warnings show California's worst winters were La Nina years.
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Knowing a portfolio is exposed to Florida hurricanes is not the same as knowing what happened during THIS hurricane. Why event-level intelligence matters for catastrophe reinsurance: accumulation, loss estimates, the observed record.
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When a major catastrophe strikes, reinsurers need to connect it to exposures, cedents and programs fast. Seven ways real-time event intelligence supports reinsurance operations, alongside the catastrophe models already in use.
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A hurricane can span hundreds of miles. A tornado track can be a few hundred yards wide. For a reinsurer they share one thing: the footprint decides the exposure. What hazard footprints reveal about accumulation across cedents.
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Before a catastrophe, insurers ask what could happen. During it, what is actually happening. After it, what did it affect. Ten stages of a nat cat event, and what real-time catastrophe intelligence adds at each one.
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After a catastrophe, the insurance process does not start with the first claim. It starts with detection. Detection, characterization, exposure, claims, impact, historical record: one event record can carry an insurer through all of it.
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Catastrophe models answer: what could happen? Catastrophe intelligence answers: what did happen, where, and to which locations? They are not competing approaches. Insurers need both, and the difference matters more than it sounds.
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Knowing a wildfire is burning in California is useful. Knowing its footprint and which insured properties sit inside it is actionable. That gap is what Nat Cat Intelligence closes. A guide for insurance companies.
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Did a tornado hit Colorado Springs on Sept 20? No.
One radar-indicated warning. 24 minutes. Rural ground 34 miles southeast. About 53 people inside the polygon. Zero tornado reports statewide.
It felt like a citywide alert. It wasn't.
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Every parametric payout sits on a data chain: detection, characterization, measurement, footprint, exposure intersection, trigger verification, settlement. A weak link anywhere is a weak product. From detection to payout, the whole chain.
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Detect. Characterize. Footprint. Intersect. Verify. Five steps between a real-world hazard and a parametric payout. Event intelligence supports every one without replacing the contract. How the physical event connects to the financial response.
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A forecast says winds may reach 125 mph. A parametric policy needs to know whether THIS insured location actually experienced them. Different questions, different data. Why parametric coverage lives or dies on observed, local hazard intelligence.
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A parametric trigger has to be more than a number. Objective, relevant to the real risk, geographically precise, transparent, time-bounded, backtested, honest about basis risk, simple enough to explain. Ten principles, one piece.
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A count of tornadoes by county tells you one thing. Actual tracks tell you another: how close they came to your insured properties, which corridors recur, whether your exposure grew into the hazard. History is not a prediction. It is context.
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The strongest tornado is not the costliest one. A weak tornado through a dense suburb can create more insured loss than a violent one over open country. An EF rating describes the hazard. It says nothing about what was in the path.
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After a tornado, four numbers get confused: properties in the warning area, near the observed track, inside the footprint, with verified damage. Not interchangeable. Getting them straight is the difference between an estimate and a claims plan.
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A tornado warning answers one question: is there a threat right now? Insurers need five more: where did it go, how strong, what did it hit, which policies, what happened after. Warning polygons are wide. Tracks are narrow. The gap is your exposure.
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Tornado season's "quiet month" wasn't.
Sept 4-14: 25 NWS tornado warnings, 29 tornado reports, 10 surveyed damage paths from the Carolinas to New Mexico — at ~3x the normal severe-thunderstorm volume.
The data + interactive map:
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Did a tornado hit Omaha in April 2026?
No — but 40,800 people spent a night under a tornado watch, and people are STILL searching for what happened.
What the event record actually shows, and why Omaha's tornado nerves run hot:
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