on-chain breakdowns before ct catches up. following whales, longing tops
Joined May 2025
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looked at who actually sold $stonk on the way down from $317M
fish and dolphin wallets net sold $5.5M
whales net sold just $492k
the small wallets did most of the dumping
the whale side is more interesting. old whales who bought under $40M took profit and left. new whales stepped in with a cost basis above $100M
79% of top holders are underwater right now. 70% of them haven't sold a single coin
and someone is twapping in as we speak
this is what a reset looks like. weak hands are out, and the new big money is sitting in red and not moving
one more thing people miss:
stonkfun has paid $95.7M to holders of the coins launched on it
stonk itself is worth ~$91M
the pad has already given away more than the market prices it at
the sellers are gone. the ones left are waiting for $100M+ to break even, and they're not in a rush
data via @SunFlowSolana
stonkfun is doing ~15% of all solana launchpad revenue this month
$stonk is priced like it's doing 5%
pump: $2.09B mcap, $45.5M revenue last 30 days
stonk: ~$120M mcap, $9.38M revenue
pump's market cap is 17x bigger than stonk's
but it only makes 5x more revenue
if stonk got pump's multiple, it'd be ~$435M
that's 3.6x from here without stonkfun earning a single dollar more
and revenue is going up, not down
people forget how fast this stuff moves once the market wakes up
bonk went from ~$15M to $3B in under two months in 2023
bonk was the base layer of solana's meme revival. everything got built around it
$stonk is that for tokenized stocks
"a meme paired with nvidia" is the easiest pitch in crypto.
anyone gets it in one sentence, and the trenches can build anything on top of it
stonk is ~$100M right now
John Doe retweeted
Biggest buybacks doesn’t mean biggest supply squeeze
Annualized buybacks as % of market cap:
$STONK — 66.5%
$ORE — 52.7%
$PONS — 18.4%
$PUMP — 18.2%
$HYPE — 4.6%
$JUP — 2.8%
$UNI — 2.0%
HYPE leads in $ buybacks, but its $20B mcap makes the relative yield much lower
STONK and ORE buy back far more relative to their size
But which can sustain that pace?
unstonkable
the best entries never feel good
when everything is clear, btc trending, revenue up, ct bullish, you feel confident buying. but by then that confidence is already in the price
the discount only exists while nobody knows what happens next
$stonk right now:
btc chopping between 75k and 80k
weekend revenue dipped
half of ct says the launchpad meta is dead, the other half says pump wins the stocks war
nobody is sure. that's exactly why it's at $93M and not $300M
last week was the same. stonk at $71M, timeline writing obituaries. 3 days later it was +50%
the day it's obvious again, revenue back above $150k, btc breaking out, trenches full, you won't get this price
you don't get paid for being right when everyone agrees. you get paid for buying when nobody does
bonk hit ~$4B in nov 2024
no revenue, no launchpad yet. just a dog and a community
the pad (letsbonk) came later
$stonk is the other way around
the pad came first. $38M revenue, $98M paid to holders, $7B volume
and it's sitting at $105M
bonk's first run was dec 2023. the second one a year later took it to ~$4B
pump dumped after launch. two months later it printed ath at ~$3B
stonk's first run topped at $317M
wonder where the second one takes it
and stonkfun still hasn't had its real runner
zcat, mask and si did $50M+ in a bad market. that's not it yet
the first $1B coin on the pad is still ahead, and i think sooner rather than later
if you want in before the second run, this is where i trade it. ref gives you 10% off fees:
fomo.family/r/DoeOnChain
John Doe retweeted
seeing people say onchain/trenches is at the worst it's ever been tells me how out of touch CT has become
in the past 4 months alone:
• about half a dozen new tokens hit $100m - $300m+ market caps; $PONS went from $0 to $960m, alongside $ANSEM, $CASHCAT, $AI, $STONK, etc, all of which hit at least $300m FDV
• dozens upon dozens of new tokens hit $10m+
• we've continued to see the occasional onchain runner despite deteriorating market structure
now compare that to the months BEFORE Robinhood chain emerged, when barely anything moved for the greater part of the year
or the period after $TRUMP launched last year and before the initial emergence of BonkFun, when barely anything pumped above $2m - $5m for about half a year
THIS IS NOWHERE NEAR THE WORST THE TRENCHES HAVE EVER BEEN
obviously, conditions aren't what they were a few months ago when everything was pumping
but that doesn't mean the opportunity is gone
i think the market picks up again soon, likely MUCH faster than most people anticipate
CT is overwhelmingly dominated by doomers and toxic narratives right now
ignore 99.9% of the noise
this is when you start scooping up the dips on the high-conviction outperformers from the last rally
these are the coins that have already proven they can massively outperform
and if history is any indication, many of them won't just revisit their previous highs
they'll go MUCH higher when the next leg begins
most people will wait for confirmation
the biggest opportunities often come BEFORE the crowd changes its mind
the stonkfun ecosystem is waking up
solana:6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx is holding ~$105M like a floor. while it sits here:
a whale bought 4x $50k in 20 minutes this morning around $100M
pumpcade, useless and gp whales added on top
693k stonk burned yesterday, 972k the day before. every single day
the old holders aren't going anywhere either. point farm is down millions and still hasn't sold
the pad itself keeps printing:
$7B total volume crossed
$98M paid out to holders of its coins
this is what it looks like before a breakout. quiet price, loud accumulation
and when stonk moves, the whole ecosystem moves with it
my favorites:
solana:HcRLc9VDgjLeK154xDawfb1dmVJ98DoSqcwTHGqiDeJR — a whale just bought $90k of it at $54M
solana:HuAXPyDWDaMYFKuwQHpqL1oPnj93zdzWmtvFGzCeCUa7 — +16% today, privacy + zec rewards, heat calls it an infinite money glitch
but honestly the best ones might not exist yet
every leg up on stonkfun brought new runners. this one will too
John Doe retweeted
Tehcscreener built a dedicated StonkFun dashboard.
Every coin, tracked independently.
Live now.
Stonk (@LaunchOnSF) is now verified on Tehcscreener
check it out: tehcscreener.com/pad/solana/…
John Doe retweeted
Added more $stonk. Chart setting higher lows and higher high in progress. Revenue back on uptrend.
stonkfun is about to cross $100M paid out to holders
$97.83M so far. that's zec, nvidia, gold and btc sent straight to people holding coins launched on the pad
pace in the last few days: ~$280k a day
at that rate $100M lands in about a week
now look at $stonk:
mcap ~$104M
the pad is about to pay its users roughly what the whole token is worth
and that's not the revenue that backs stonk. that's on top of it
revenue goes to buybacks. yesterday alone: $198k revenue, 972k stonk burned
so the holders of the coins get paid, and stonk holders get the burns
most launchpads take from their users
this one has paid them $97M and counting
the $100M headline is coming this week. i'd rather be positioned before it than after
the best entries never feel good
when everything is clear, btc trending, revenue up, ct bullish, you feel confident buying. but by then that confidence is already in the price
the discount only exists while nobody knows what happens next
$stonk right now:
btc chopping between 75k and 80k
weekend revenue dipped
half of ct says the launchpad meta is dead, the other half says pump wins the stocks war
nobody is sure. that's exactly why it's at $93M and not $300M
last week was the same. stonk at $71M, timeline writing obituaries. 3 days later it was +50%
the day it's obvious again, revenue back above $150k, btc breaking out, trenches full, you won't get this price
you don't get paid for being right when everyone agrees. you get paid for buying when nobody does