DoubleG

When the Fed spiked interest rates from ~0 to ~5% over the past year, it had 3 main effects: 1. Undercut value of bonds, especially long-dated bonds. 2. Made lending more expensive, particularly for large purchases like real estate that have to be financed. 3. Increased government borrowing costs. These effects are just math and have to play out through the financial system. I think they will roughly correspond to the 3 stages of the financial crisis we’re in: 1. Small/regional bank crisis precipitated by unrealized losses on long-dated bonds. 2. CRE crisis precipitated by credit markets seizing up for new loans and impairment of existing CRE loan portfolios (which are also unrealized losses). 3. Government debt crisis precipitated by spike in debt service costs at federal level, budget deficits at state and local level, and sovereign debt issues at international level. We’re seeing the first stage play out now. The second and third stages are yet to come. Disclaimer: magnitudes are hard to calculate, and I make no predictions about the price of any asset. A lot depends on how government including the Fed reacts. I do not make trading recommendations.