I’m Leon. Founder, @TailwindMacro. Systematic macro investing. $SPY $BTC $GLD Newsletter: https://xitter.gq/t.co/DUodX1OnDB
Miami, FL
Joined August 2016
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the power law decay oscillator is back at 0% for $BTC.
it's been here five times before.. 2012, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022.
each one was the cycle low. you get one of these per cycle and this is the sixth.
lines on a chart.. usually not that important but this one is because five bear markets ended above it.
the sixth is being decided on it at $77,775.
hold it and the trend pulls price toward $138,000. break it and the -2σ band hands out the entry of the decade.
i've made peace with both. $BTC
smart money distributed ~250k $BTC into the september rally. dumb money absorbed every last coin of it at $85k.
a tale as old as time.. this beauty just puts a number on it.
charts: @JA_Maartun
> be brazil
> 2007: $32
> 2026: $32
> bitcoin is "too volatile" though
$EWZ
The bubble was in the miners.
Since June, $WGMI is down 60%. Bitcoin is up 22% over the same stretch, and that includes this week's drop to $77k.
The excess was the data-center premium. The market has removed it. What remains is an ordinary bitcoin drawdown.
Bitcoin is sitting on the −0.5σ MVRV band at $77k.
This band decided the whole bull market. In 2023 it rejected price twice before giving way in October.
For two years after that it held as the floor. It broke in February and this week is the 2nd retest from above since.
first bear market in bitcoin's history where we never broke below realised price.
2015: -25%.
2018: -40%.
2020: -30%.
2022: -20%.
2026: never.
bitcoin has never had back-to-back down years.
2014: -58% → 2015: +34%
2018: -74% → 2019: +92%
2022: -64% → 2023: +155%
2025 closed -6%. 2026 sits at -6% with ten weeks left. q4 median is +28%.
system caught the move, system left the move. my opinion of fair value was never consulted.
that's the only way to operate.
$BTC
$BTC: 43% below power law fair value.
cheap is a level and the trend is the gate.
global liquidity fair value for $BTC: $207,960.
2.5x gap. deepest discount since 2015.
$BTC LTH unrealised profit share, trough → today:
2015: 18% → mean.
2019: 35% → mean.
2023: 35% → mean.
2026: 60% → 88%.
each prior cross back through the mean came 9–18 months before the part people remember. the boring stretch is where the position gets built.
eight years of bitcoin on a log regression channel. seven decisions.
five buys under -1.5σ. three sells over +2σ.
every other day is a hold.
today: -0.94σ. no decision required.
not financial advice. just math.
full interactive chart available free @ durdenbtc.com/charts/btc-tre…
LTH-AVIV crossed back above 1.
how underwater $BTC long-term holders got at each cycle low:
2015: -75%. 2018: -50%. 2022: -45%. 2026: -20%.
either that's diminishing returns showing up early or it's getting harder to make the oldest coins sell.
$BTC is back above every major moving average.
128dma. 200dma. 365dma. 200wma.
first time since the top.
