🦅 Paid to worry about markets, born to worry about Palace. Season ticket holder. Tactics, stats & deep dives 📊 🗽 New York City FC while in NY for work.
London, England
Joined November 2026
- Tweets54
- Following90
- Followers41
- Likes5
Pinned Tweet
What’s actually gone wrong at Palace this season?
Nine games, seven points, 21 goals conceded. Not exactly the follow-up to our recent highs that anyone
had in mind.
I’ve spent far too much time trying to work out why. The numbers are ugly, but a couple of them tell a
more interesting story than simply blaming Sage or the players.
Here’s where I think it’s gone wrong — and what I’d try to change. 🧵👇
Very on the fence with this one. 6 points off the top half and next two fixtures are Cov & Hull. I just fear his kamikaze style of play is too much of a risk to take.
Just can’t believe we were so sure in August and now not so.
Do think if Frank is the man, he will offer some more defensive rigidity and compactness which is much needed with the current personnel.
Moving away for the 3-4-2-1 will be a welcome change especially for Wharton.
Thomas Frank deep dive coming this week….
Thomas Frank in pole postion to replace Pierre Sage at Crystal Palace. #CPFC
mol.im/a/16276657
I find stats like this incredibly misleading without context.
Palace are only six points off the top half and have Coventry and Hull in our next two league fixtures. A couple of wins and the picture looks very different.
The Premier League is becoming increasingly competitive, with very little separating much of the table. Using a sample of just five teams from different seasons to draw conclusions about Palace’s relegation chances feels pretty questionable.
European football could certainly complicate things further, and our underlying numbers are genuinely worrying, but I wouldn’t be drawing conclusions about relegation after ten games based on this stat alone.
🦅 Palace 1-3 Liverpool. A few thoughts.
Despite the scoreline, I thought that was a much better performance from Palace.
After a difficult opening 15 minutes, we settled into the game and looked far more compact and organised defensively. Some welcome pragmatism from Sage.
Going forward, there were plenty of positives. Some lovely switches of play, good movement and overloads in the box. The absence of Sarr and Mateta was still obvious though.
The stats reflect a much more competitive performance:
📊 53% possession
📊 19 shots to Liverpool’s 20
📊 2.38 xG vs 2.65 xG
📊 5 big chances each
My biggest concern remains our rest defence.
Liverpool punished us during spells where we were actually on top and enjoying sustained pressure. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. We look dangerous committing numbers forward, but remain far too exposed when possession turns over.
Individually, we also look considerably weaker defensively than last season. Lerma was largely a backup under Glasner and is now a regular starter. Mingueza looked much better on the ball today and helped initiate attacks, but still raises questions defensively.
As for Sage, I fear this might be the end.
Which would be a shame. There are clearly promising elements to his football, and today offered glimpses of what he’s trying to build.
He’s inherited a very difficult hand with injuries, departures and recruitment that hasn’t necessarily suited his approach. That doesn’t excuse the defensive issues, but I struggle to see him as the biggest problem at Palace.
A frustrating result, but more encouraging than the scoreline suggests.
Up the Palace ❤️💙
🦅 PALACE vs LIVERPOOL | PRE-MATCH THREAD
Palace host Liverpool at Selhurst this afternoon. The table, the market and the underlying numbers all favour the visitors, but there are still a few interesting tactical questions, particularly around our defensive setup and how we cope without our usual attacking outlets.
So, here's a bit of Sunday reading for those on the train up to Selhurst, in Boxpark or enjoying a pre-match pint.
I'll be reading the comments from the Clifton with a nice cold Guinness in hand! 🍻
A quick look at the numbers, the tactical battles and what I'll be watching today. 🧵👇
6. The final-third challenge
Without Sarr’s runs in behind and Mateta’s hold-up play, I worry we'll struggle to turn possession into attacks. Wharton needs runners to find, and our forwards need support rather than being left isolated.
Can we release the ball early enough to attack Liverpool before their defence is set? That’s one of the main things I'll be watching.
7. My pre-match read
The xgEdge model’s most likely individual score is 1-1 (13.8%), followed by 1-2 (11.2%). That shouldn't be confused with a confident prediction — no exact scoreline is particularly likely.
For me, the route to a result is (somewhat) straightforward: stay compact, protect the centre, and make our attacking moments count. If the match becomes stretched, Liverpool are far better equipped to exploit it.
Interested to hear what everyone else is expecting. Up the Palace ❤️💙🦅
10. So what would I actually change?
First: make ourselves harder to play through. Keep Sage's aggression, but protect it. Better spacing behind the press, more selective triggers and an extra midfielder screening the middle when we're committing bodies forward.
I really liked @CPFC_Tampa suggestion of finding a way to attack with five but retain a 3-2 rest-defence, rather than drifting into a 3-1-6. It won't fix everything — and it might cost us a little in attack — but with the chances we're conceding, it's a trade-off worth exploring.
Second: simplify what we're asking Wharton to do and give him more genuine passing options until Sarr and Mateta return.
Third: longer term, get back to building a squad around high-upside players who actually belong to Palace.
11. Where I land on it all
I don't think this is as simple as ‘Sage out’. He inherited a defence that had already deteriorated, we've lost major players and his most important attackers have barely been available.
But I also don't think he's powerless. The current defensive numbers are bad enough that something has to change now, not when the perfect squad eventually turns up.
My biggest worry isn't that Palace aren't trying hard enough. It's that we're playing football which constantly asks the players to put out fires.
Give Sage time, absolutely. But give the defence a bit more protection too.
Interested to hear where other Palace fans agree or disagree. Up the Palace ❤️💙🦅