https://xitter.gq/t.co/Flh1ElSMPH’ Boss. Eating good 🫛🫛🫛 at https://xitter.gq/t.co/9H8rnOYsou.
Edamame.fun
Joined February 2022
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EDA intern retweeted
@elonmusk skip the CEX drama. If you want to put real size to work in HYPE on-chain and see what actual risk management looks like, check our on-chain audited track record.
Capital-first gamma book: +18% HYPE / ~75% USD since launch. We de-risked before venues broke.
Downside locked, upside captured.
Deposits open for the next epoch. 🤝
@cz_binance fade @hyperliquidx and D2 at your own risk.
Hyperliquid
d2HYPE epoch settled: +0.4% in HYPE terms net of fees, about 20% annualized over the short epoch, through the week Binance lost its hot wallets and HYPE printed a new all-time high at 97.11.
Since launch the vault is up about 18% in HYPE terms, about 75% in USD terms for anyone comparing against covered-call programs that cap the upside.
Thursday 29 October the Binance hot wallets were drained. The same day ICE, owner of the NYSE, announced its partnership with @HyperliquidX's @tradexyz, and HYPE did about $2.6B of perp volume on Hyperliquid, its biggest day. We were long gamma into that squeeze and sold 36% of the vault notional on the way up.
By 23:00 UTC Thursday, with the attacker's wallets still live and more than 2M HYPE in a Binance hot wallet, our HYPE delta was zero. Friday morning the market gave the HYPE back and we bought it. The 90 calls on 20,000 HYPE settled in the money at 91.62, @flowdesk_co confirmation on the card.
Binance moved 2.41M HYPE from hot to cold on Friday. Bybit moved 250K. Users' capital was flat a day earlier.
Next epoch to 18 December, terms in the third post.
EDA intern retweeted
d2HYPE epoch settled: +0.4% in HYPE terms net of fees, about 20% annualized over the short epoch, through the week Binance lost its hot wallets and HYPE printed a new all-time high at 97.11.
Since launch the vault is up about 18% in HYPE terms, about 75% in USD terms for anyone comparing against covered-call programs that cap the upside.
Thursday 29 October the Binance hot wallets were drained. The same day ICE, owner of the NYSE, announced its partnership with @HyperliquidX's @tradexyz, and HYPE did about $2.6B of perp volume on Hyperliquid, its biggest day. We were long gamma into that squeeze and sold 36% of the vault notional on the way up.
By 23:00 UTC Thursday, with the attacker's wallets still live and more than 2M HYPE in a Binance hot wallet, our HYPE delta was zero. Friday morning the market gave the HYPE back and we bought it. The 90 calls on 20,000 HYPE settled in the money at 91.62, @flowdesk_co confirmation on the card.
Binance moved 2.41M HYPE from hot to cold on Friday. Bybit moved 250K. Users' capital was flat a day earlier.
Next epoch to 18 December, terms in the third post.
EDA intern retweeted
Two years ago we asked the same five questions @drwconvexity asks here.
Since then we have traded billions of notional on @HyperliquidX, every day since before the token, every position public.
Answers from the book:
1) The asset is the margin. Collateral, liquidations and the clearing ledger are public state every block. PnL settles to collateral 24/7 with no wire window. Onshore keeps that and adds a regulated access layer.
2) Our allocators verify the book in real time instead of a monthly PDF. Large trader reporting already goes to the CFTC daily; Hyperliquid sends it to everyone with no lag. Leakage is a sizing and sub-account problem. @standuquesne We would be happy to give you some tips 🫡
3) Aurora colocation sells the same thing by the rack. Hyperliquid prices queue priority from 8 bps of notional, about 45ms per bp, rule published, open to any account. Cancels still beat paid orders and the fees are burned. If Core Principle 9 tolerates the colo cage, it tolerates a posted price list, @ChairmanSelig.
4) Same engine, separate books at launch per the @ICE_Markets release. Merging them is a policy call, not an engineering one. One matching engine with KYC at the access layer is already how Globex works; the FCM is the gate.That test already ran.
5) Coinbase and CME list the centralized version. @tradexyz did $650B on Hyperliquid in a year. Matching costs tens of milliseconds against an hourly funding interval; only the latency arb feels it. The pit asked Globex the same question in 1992.
The part that matters for DRW: on Hyperliquid you enter at the same price we did, a wallet, USDC and the public API. No Aurora cage, no cross connect, no FCM tier. Same 8 bps price list for both of us.
If DRW can only compete with us on scale, Globex is still open. Otherwise see you on the order book, Don.
Further to my post about @NYSE working to bring @HyperliquidX onshore, major credit to @ChairmanSelig and the Trump administration for making all of this experimentation possible.
There’s only one way of finding out if something is useful to the marketplace and I’m excited for us to find out. I do have some questions:
1. What is the benefit of trading perps on-chain on a regulated exchange? Isn’t the main benefit of trading on-chain to operate in a trustless (aka non-kyc’d) environment in order to minimize friction, and/or to be able to enter into atomic transactions in order to receive what you are buying in realtime? Since a perp is not an asset, that obviously isn’t helpful.
2. @standuquesne - are you aware that if you trade on Hyperliquid, the world will be able to track your positions and trades in real time? Do you see that as a benefit?
3. Hyperliquid has priority fees - a mechanism that enables market participants to pay to see information first, or even prioritize orders in front of the queue. Is this consistent with CFTC core principles?
4. Will it be possible to combine the liquidity of the offshore order-book with the onshore order-book?
5. If not, wouldn’t it be better to list perps in a traditional (centralized) order-book on a regulated exchange and not have the inefficiencies that on-chain matching introduces?
EDA intern retweeted
Binance just printed $761M in liquidations in 24h, nearly half the entire market ($1.54B), on a venue where users couldn’t even deposit collateral safely to defend themselves.
The only algorithm at @binance that never gets compromised: the one that liquidates its own users while the hot wallets are still on fire.
@elonmusk since you’re laughing at the CEX circus: put @tradexyz on X.
Intel dumped 24% overnight. Over $4bn of stocks, oil and indices traded while the NYSE was shut. ICE and the NYSE signed up yesterday.
The everything app needs the one market that never closes. 🚀
EDA intern retweeted
Few corrections here:
Aave is not holding frozen collateral
They hold aUSDT
A separate contract from USDT
Tether cannot freeze aUSDT
Also if ETH moves just 4% or so the position will be liq’ed
This is also nothing like the rsETH incident in the spring because the position opened is fully overcollateralized.
The key here is the hackers used permissionless DeFi to dump censorable centralized stablecoins for uncensorable money (ETH)
EDA intern retweeted
More from the D2 desk, 00:30 UTC.
1. Reconciled by @DicksonWuML: 6.28bn out across nine chains including XRP Ledger, 2.80bn frozen, 3.27bn still loose, mostly BTC and ETH.
2. First move was XRPL at 20:04 UTC. The first transfer bounced because the attacker's account did not exist yet. Eight seconds later it did.
3. Attacker funding from Tornado began 07:39 UTC on 28 Oct, 99 minutes after Binance's ETH wallet maintenance window opened.
4. Binance 14 is still delegated. Another 48M swept out at 22:39 UTC. Binance now says it will cover all losses; deposits are suspended too.
5. DefiLlama: Binance 24h net outflow 6.38bn, OKX in 94M, Bybit out 32M. No CEX is catching the flow because users cannot leave.
6. Binance perp open interest 31.6bn sits inside a venue with withdrawals shut.
7. Most mid-tier CEX liquidity is market makers quoting against Binance's book. Tonight that book is closed and their inventory is trapped.
8. Core advice: withdraw from any CEX that cannot show you its books. Self-custody or on-chain until Binance reopens.
9. Attacker sold LINK, AAVE, ONDO and WBTC between 22:34 and 23:19 UTC. 386K ETH and 18,270 BTC unmoved; the first THORChain swap starts the laundering clock.
10. Bloomberg Top News at 11:12 Sydney: 26 stories, none on the largest theft in crypto's history. "Bitcoin is finally a grown-up asset" ran at 08:00.
Quick ones from our side.
1) D2 has no exposure to @Binance. We have never traded there.
2) We pulled our USDC from Aave live-tracking the attacker as he parked 60M USDT in the pool and borrowed 19,762 ETH against it.
3) We are long gamma and trading it.
Forensic tl;dr.
Eight chains, one signing layer. The attacker held the hot-wallet keys. Binance 14 fell to a 7702 delegation signed over 50 consecutive nonces, which is what you do when the key is yours and the wallet is still processing withdrawals. BTC and Tron went on plain signatures in the same 20 minutes. Gross 5.0 to 5.8bn, 2.4bn frozen, about 3bn clean.
Where it sits: 386K ETH across three wallets, 17,270 BTC untouched in 17 wallets, 685M TRX, 970K SOL. The ETH is the laundering leg. Bybit’s went to BTC through THORChain in ten days.
As we write, Binance 14 is still delegated to the attacker’s contract and Binance’s own refills were swept again at 21:04 and 21:44 UTC. Three hours in, the automation that feeds the thief is still running.
This is the largest theft in the history of the asset class and it ran through one company’s signing layer while that company’s scripts kept topping up the drain.
For eight years the industry’s single point of failure has had a logo. Tonight the alternative had its books on-chain, its withdrawals open, and 2.4bn of HYPE perp volume in 24 hours. We have traded there every day since before the TGE. Move.
EDA intern retweeted
Quick ones from our side.
1) D2 has no exposure to @Binance. We have never traded there.
2) We pulled our USDC from Aave live-tracking the attacker as he parked 60M USDT in the pool and borrowed 19,762 ETH against it.
3) We are long gamma and trading it.
Forensic tl;dr.
Eight chains, one signing layer. The attacker held the hot-wallet keys. Binance 14 fell to a 7702 delegation signed over 50 consecutive nonces, which is what you do when the key is yours and the wallet is still processing withdrawals. BTC and Tron went on plain signatures in the same 20 minutes. Gross 5.0 to 5.8bn, 2.4bn frozen, about 3bn clean.
Where it sits: 386K ETH across three wallets, 17,270 BTC untouched in 17 wallets, 685M TRX, 970K SOL. The ETH is the laundering leg. Bybit’s went to BTC through THORChain in ten days.
As we write, Binance 14 is still delegated to the attacker’s contract and Binance’s own refills were swept again at 21:04 and 21:44 UTC. Three hours in, the automation that feeds the thief is still running.
This is the largest theft in the history of the asset class and it ran through one company’s signing layer while that company’s scripts kept topping up the drain.
For eight years the industry’s single point of failure has had a logo. Tonight the alternative had its books on-chain, its withdrawals open, and 2.4bn of HYPE perp volume in 24 hours. We have traded there every day since before the TGE. Move.
quick ones
1) Binance has enough to withstand 3-4x of current hit and still be largely intact. Very likely they will shrug this off and user funds are very likely safu (but like obviously don’t deposit until they sort out what went wrong)
2) Wintermute obv has exposure to binance, but less than 20% of net equity and I don’t see any disruption to our operations on any time horizon in whatever scenario
EDA intern retweeted
Thanks to Andy and the @CIG_Crypto team for including D2's outlook on tokenizing actively managed strategies in the 4Q26 Strategy Outlook, alongside a strong group of contributors.
Our view in the piece: 2027 will be a year of innovation and opportunity for forward-thinking asset managers, as actively managed strategies move on-chain at scale.
CIG’s 4Q26 Active Strategy Outlook Magazine is live!
This quarter, leading fund managers and allocators shared perspectives on vault diligence, tokenized alpha, and where market neutral returns go from here.
👉 Access the full report here:
cryptoinsightsgroup.com/insi…
EDA intern retweeted
We were there day one of @tradexyz. We traded it that first week and have not stopped since.
Texas Hedge Epoch 2 ran NVDA vs QQQ, the SPCX pre-IPO listing trade and DRAM on xyz and settled +31.7% net. Hot7 runs its US equity delta on xyz perps against an SPX hedge. Texas Epoch 4 is building the Anthropic listing trade on xyz:ANT right now. All of it sits on the same collateral as our BTC and HYPE book, which is the cross-margin point in the post, live for a fund today.
We have run the first multi-strategy hedge fund on Hyperliquid since before the HYPE TGE on one thesis: it is the house of all finance.
Today the owner of the NYSE agreed, subject to approvals.
Congrats @sershokunin and the xyz team.
trade[XYZ] launched its first market on Hyperliquid 381 days ago. Today, we are joining forces with ICE, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, to bring perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to U.S. regulated markets.
I don’t usually write long posts, but today merits reflection.
For years, builders across this industry have worked to show that open, onchain markets could support price discovery, manage risk, and withstand stress to the standards of traditional market infrastructure, all while staying open when and where those markets aren’t.
Our achievements stand on the shoulders of those builders. And today, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange has chosen to build upon the work of every developer, trader, market maker, and user who took a chance on us and our markets. We share this moment with all of you.
Markets are shaped by their participants. A new generation of investors trades from their phones, across asset classes, at any hour of any day. Until Hyperliquid, the right infrastructure for those markets didn’t exist.
Building these markets was hard. It took novel approaches to pricing, funding, and risk, refined with real capital at stake, in markets that don’t close. It also meant earning the trust of the people trading on them. We’re honored that the community recognized that effort and responded in kind.
That trust is what allowed us to grow our volumes to a ~$1 trillion annualized run rate in just over a year, to help pioneer new instruments like pre-IPO perps, and to earn the confidence of storied institutions like S&P Dow Jones Indices. That’s why ICE has chosen trade[XYZ] as its exclusive partner to bring 24/7 perps to the U.S.
Shifts in technology have pushed markets toward greater transparency, better price discovery, and broader access: from the coffee house to the curb exchange, ticker tape to the telephone, the trading floor to digital exchanges.
ICE helped write that last chapter. In 1997, Jeff Sprecher bought a small power-trading technology business for $1. ICE launched as an electronic energy marketplace in 2000, helped digitize major commodity markets, and acquired the NYSE in 2013. It has grown exponentially because of this appetite for innovation. That’s the partner we wanted: a partner that looks forward and embraces progress.
Americans deserve access to the most innovative markets in the world, and the protections of U.S. regulation. With trade[XYZ] and ICE, subject to regulatory approvals, they’ll have both.
The difference isn’t just access. Perps don’t expire, so traders never have to roll positions, and liquidity concentrates in a single deep market for each asset. Cross-margining enhances capital efficiency by letting one pool of collateral back positions across stocks, commodities, and crypto. Underpinning it all are atomic clearing and settlement, real-time risk management that enables continuous markets, and universally applied rules that anyone can verify. This is the next chapter we’ll write together.
My responsibility, our responsibility, is to now build markets worthy of the confidence our partners and our users have placed in us. Our commitments will not waver: to fair and transparent markets, to diverse markets, to low costs of execution, and above all, to market integrity.
All of this in pursuit of one thing:
A universal exchange, open around the clock, coming to the United States.
We’re proud to have deployed more than 100 markets on trade[XYZ]. But measured against the opportunity ahead, we’ve barely started. There is an enormous universe of assets we haven’t reached, alongside things people want to trade that have no established market at all. Wherever there is demand to trade an asset, we want trade[XYZ] to be where its price is discovered.
Global stocks, commodities, bonds, pre-IPO companies, compute, new indices, digital assets, interest rates, equity baskets, volatility products, alt assets… Anything. Anytime. Anywhere.
Ultimately, everything you own should work with everything you trade. Picture a headline breaking on Saturday night. You should be able to post tokenized shares as collateral, hedge your portfolio with an index perp, add exposure to oil, and take a view on a company that has not yet gone public. All in one account, all on one risk engine, before any traditional market opens. trade[XYZ] and Hyperliquid were built for this.
I hope someone opens their first investment account years from now to find that trivial, and to wonder why their predecessors needed so many separate financial relationships. Getting there will take liquidity, reliability, trust, and prices people have reason to believe. It will take years. I’m prepared to spend them.
Finally, a few thank yous.
First to the XYZ team: For the tireless nights and for committing to this vision before it was obvious.
To Jeff Sprecher and ICE, with special thanks to Michael Blaugrund and Trabue Bland who championed us throughout: You’re a world-class, technology-embracing team that proves innovation and scale are in fact not at odds.
To Stan Druckenmiller: For your partnership and helping us turn the next page.
To Hyperliquid Labs: For being the best partners we could ask for. You set an impossible standard, one we continually strive to meet. @chameleon_jeff, @iliensinc, @xulian_hl
And most importantly, to our users: You traded these markets when no one thought it mattered.
Guess what? It did.
EDA intern retweeted
@jason @GrantCardone we ran both of your calls through the options market.
Grant, you are betting $1M that bitcoin trades 126k before Oct 2028. That is 58% above here. Two year options price that at 42%. For it to be 50/50 bitcoin vol needs to be 62. It is trading 46.
Jason, you are saying we test 57k in the next 12 months. That is 28% below here. One year options price that at 48%. A coin flip, not a lock.
So the market has Grant at 42 and Jason at 48. Neither of you is as right as you sound.
We will make a price in either. Size?
EDA intern retweeted
ELI5: the $375M is what the press release said. The 10-K says Coinbase paid $176M. Same deal.
Detail from the FY2025 10-K. Consideration $176.0M: $68.0M cash, $108.0M in Class A stock. Closed 8 October 2025. Net assets acquired $23.7M. Goodwill $152.3M, tax deductible. That is the whole entry.
Where the other $199M is: either earnouts and retention stock that ASC 805 books as comp over time, and only if it vests, or shares counted at a different price than the press release assumed. Either way it is not on the balance sheet. Crypto deal announcements work like VC capital calls, the number is committed, not wired.
@DeribitOfficial shows the same mechanic in reverse. Announced at about $2.9B, booked at $4.295B, because 11M COIN shares got marked at the 14 August close. The attached table is Coinbase’s 2025 deal list, ten names, consideration disclosed on two.
Was it a dumb trade, in the summer of 2025, for @brian_armstrong? Not obviously. ETH was $3,763 on 21 July and made its high of $4,946 on 24 August. Sonar had just run Plasma: $50M allocation, $373M committed. 7.4x net assets for the one compliant public sale rail with that order flow. Rich. Defensible.
Then 10/10: $19.15B liquidated in 24 hours, $16.69B of it longs. Same wallets that bid Sonar sales. They came back once more anyway. @megaeth on 30 October, over $1B committed on Sonar, 20x oversubscribed, so about 95% of that money went straight back. Coinbase announced on 21 October, between those two prints, and the $375M assumed the commitments were real demand.
Probably a bad trade either way. Public sale rails earn in bull markets and carry their headcount through the rest. But the write-off question is on $176M, not $375M, and the 10-K settled that in February.
All of it is in the filing and the sale data in the first reply. At D2 every published epoch return ties to an on-chain settlement transaction. Check them.
If you accepted @cobie’s date invitation thinking he was worth half a yard, you were probably wrong.
What happened to @echodotxyz, @brian_armstrong?
As a shareholder I am quite concerned Coinbase can spend $375mn without utilizing the acquisition
$COIN
EDA intern retweeted
Or you start in the put and size up with the short once the thesis is working. Max loss while you wait to be right is the premium. A short has no cap. On a contrarian trade you’re paying vol to be early, not betting on it.
EDA intern retweeted
Why normal people still don’t come onchain.
Seventeen years in, crypto is worth less than 1% of the world’s listed stocks and bonds: $2.7T against $318T. In a 2026 Harris Poll of 2,014 Americans who hold no crypto, 43% put security and fraud in their top three reasons for staying out. That barrier is avoidable.
Products built to extract from the marginal buyer get launched, cheered, and farmed. The public reads the result. Papertrade is only the latest. The cost is a risk premium paid by everyone still building for that public. We pay it. So does @HyperliquidX.
Finance protects the retail investor because he is the marginal buyer. SIPC, suitability, and best execution exist so the customer is never the counterparty’s mark. A market that eats its marginal buyer grows only as fast as its insiders can fund it.
Crypto inverted the rule.
Here the public is the liquidation. FTX’s $8B hole and Terra’s $40B still sit on page one of every allocator questionnaire. Each product sold as safe that was not raises the return the next allocator demands. The premium lands on everyone still building.
Papertrade in one paragraph: No order book. Every trade is a synthetic swap against one USDC pool at Hyperliquid’s mid, up to 1,000x, no funding. The pool starts at zero and grows only from losses. Winners above the pool get an IOU that pays when someone else loses.
Losing earned a token sold as the claim on the pool’s future excess. $140M came in on those terms. Within twelve days the team said it had no plans to make the token transferable. Its defenders call it an experiment.
@laurashin’s episode is the fairest coverage it got. Her guest says the team’s reasoning holds up and still calls it a bait-and-switch for everyone who deposited under the original rules.
We started building in 2022, before Hyperliquid’s mainnet, and have settled 33 epochs since. We moved the book here for one reason: a founder who wants to house all of finance on rails anyone can build on, and a team of 11 with no VC that has done trillions in volume on that premise.
It is the only version of crypto the public ever joins.
The forensics are self-interest. The premium comes down when these things get named early. Naming them is cheaper than paying for them.
Papertrade reads Hyperliquid’s prices, settles on its ledger, and markets itself as built on it. The people cheering it are the stick in the wheel of why we cannot have good things for the house of finance thesis.
PaperTrade Attracted $140M, Then Changed the Rules. Was It a Bait and Switch?
🎰 1,000x leverage, no fees, trades against the house, and a token for losing. PaperTrade drew $140M in pre-deposits.
Then it shelved plans to make PAPER transferable. I asked @3xliquidated whether @PaperTrade_xyz can come back from that.
Timestamps:
🎬 00:00 Intro
⚡ 02:01 What PaperTrade is and why it briefly flipped Nasdaq's daily volume
🎰 06:46 How PaperTrade's house pool pays winners and mints PAPER for losers
🚀 10:32 Launch week: $140M in pre-deposits and a price-feed play on day one
💰 15:12 Nexo: Generate daily interest on your crypto or borrow funds against your assets at unchainedcrypto.com/go/nexo-…
🔒 15:59 Why promise transferability if the risk was already in the docs?
🔄 17:31 Why PaperTrade shelved plans to make PAPER transferable
📉 24:07 Is PaperTrade over after a 93% one-day drop in staking revenue?
🧱 27:52 Why Jason says tokens should be judged like equity in a real business
EDA intern retweeted
hXXI Epoch conclusion + new epoch ✅
📊 +1.8% net in BTC over 25 days
Vault Ratio back at its pre-August high.
One 85,000 call written on @flowdesk_co expired out of the money at 82,111. Premium kept. Implied stayed bid into the macro calendar while realized decayed: whoever was blown out of gamma in August was not there to be blown out again.
We close two weeks early: implied and realized both collapsed this week and the opportunity set moved.
Into the midterms the trade is TradFi vs crypto relative value, where HYPE++, Texas Hedge and Hot7 live, not the Bitcoin surface. BlackRock's PBIT (long IBIT, long put spread, short call) is hXXI's trade in an ETF wrapper.
If retirement money piles in, the surface gets a permanent call seller and the premium moves into the spread between BTC and SPX skew.
Our HYPE++ already trades that swap and borrows BTC to run it. Next epoch hXXI is the lender
------
📅 New hXXI epoch
--> Deposits: open now
--> Trading Starts: Oct 27
--> Epoch ends: January 15, 2027
--> Fees: zero
--> Cap: 25 BTC
Terms: 3% fixed in BTC + up to 3% kicker if HYPE++ closes above 15% annualized
The fixed leg does not depend on how HYPE++ does. The kicker does.
One surface trade is binary. HYPE++ runs an ensemble. TradFi is more "fun" than crypto right now.
Fade D2 at your own risk.
EDA intern retweeted
We decoded the @initia exploit.
One signed tx at 14:59:26 UTC minted 2,000,000 AUSD out of nothing. 153 seconds later a valid @LayerZero_Core message released 1.4M real AUSD from the Ethereum adapter. $2.65M was back on Ethereum within 7m21s of the mint.
Three exits, all into 0xDD92…edFA:
AUSD: 1.4M from the AUSD OFT adapter, 71% of its balance, 576K left.
ETH: 105 from the native-ETH OFT adapter, 96% of its balance, 4.84 left.
USDC: 1.08M as fresh mints from 0x0, via Circle's CCTP.
The mint was the attacker's own key calling one Move function, 135,888 gas, no bridge message involved. The token is an argument (recipient, token, amount), consistent with one wallet printing AUSD, USDC and ETH. LayerZero's DVNs then attested to burns that really happened, and an OFT adapter cannot check whether burned tokens were ever backed: each Ethereum lockbox pays at par for any Initia-side mint bug.
Prep started 6.5 hours before the mint: 0.1 ETH from Tornado at 08:27 UTC, dust sends through @axelar AxelarHandler from 13:14, and a 0.006 ETH deposit at 14:37 into the same ETH adapter it emptied 29 minutes later. Every stable was ETH within 3 minutes of landing via 1inch and 0x, AUSD in 84 seconds. All 1,135.52 ETH (~$2.73M) now sits in a fresh wallet, 0x358e…CAC8.
Same shape as Liquid on 6 Sep, where an Elements bug created 4,000 L-BTC and a valid peg-out paid 3,996 real BTC.
Initia's DEX holds $3.50M of TVL and did $334K of volume in 24h. Its bridges carried 8x that for one wallet in 7m21s: on Initia, the deepest pool was the bridge.
EDA intern retweeted
AI capex funding trade imploding? From the D2 desk.
@Second_Lane is offering OpenAI equity in 20M+ blocks. That is how a trillion++ private valuation discovers a clearing price.
@JensenHuang on Thursday: neocloud demand is "off the charts" and "they just need working capital."
Every borrower says that right before the lender becomes the equity. CoreWeave CDS has traded above 1,140bp.
ELI5 👇
One company sells the shovels. Its customers borrowed to buy them and some now pay ~15.7% on the money. So the shovel company co-signed up to $100 billion of residual-value guarantees, bought ~$99bn of their equity, and committed to ~$279bn of supply.
Customers got marked down. The shovel company's options still price a normal quarter. 🤔
1. PRICED. Neocloud credit
CoreWeave 2031s around 80 cents, ~15.7% yield. Market-implied default odds inside a year sit in the high single digits. ~$51.6bn of debt and leases, heavy maturities 2030–2032, cash flow still far short of the stack.
2. PRICED. Oracle
2036s ~320+ bp over Treasuries. S&P cut to BBB- in July (one notch from junk) against a massive backlog. Free cash flow deeply negative last quarter.
3. PRICED. Supply
Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle have issued tens of billions of IG bonds this year, a double-digit share of the overall IG market. The IG complex is functioning as a GPU layaway plan.
4. PRICED. SPV and private credit
Meta's Hyperion bond (off-balance-sheet) has traded down to the low 90s from above 110.
Blue Owl has capped redemptions after large withdrawal requests. In DeFi that is a withdrawal queue; in private credit it is called a liquidity feature cc @matt_levine.
5. PRICED. Big-tech equity
Alphabet well off its highs after a negative free-cash-flow quarter. Meta sold off on elevated capex and negative cash flow. SoftBank (material OpenAI holder) CDS above 400bp.
6. NOT PRICED. NVDA's hidden book 👀
The 10-Q shows a $100B residual-value guarantee cap on the SB Energy / OpenAI Ohio campus, capacity-purchase commitments on unsold neocloud inventory, ~$99bn of equity in customers, and ~$279bn of supply commitments (mostly memory).
Options price roughly a 5% move at ~42 vol. One of those two numbers has not read the other.
7. NOT PRICED. Microsoft
Microsoft is ~22% of NVDA revenue; NVDA is a dominant share of Microsoft's capex. Any hedges, @satyanadella?
8. NOT PRICED. 2027 spend
Street still models Alphabet and Amazon spending materially more in 2027 than this year. Earnings next week will test it.
9. NOT PRICED. Off-balance-sheet treatment. The market is treating Hyperion as Meta risk. Ratings agencies still carry the parent at A+. We will see how long that lasts.
10. NOT PRICED. Policy path post-election. Any "silver bullet" stimulus or industrial policy that keeps the capex train running is not in the likely @realDonaldTrump options in case of a Dem sweep.
TL;DR
Borrowers have repriced: CoreWeave ~15.7%, Hyperion in the 90s, Alphabet meaningfully off the highs. The lender has not: $NVDA 👀
Key dates: 28 and 29 October guides, 4 November buyback window ends, 19 November NVDA earnings.
Texas is watching you, Jensen.
EDA intern retweeted
According to @ssmccul and @ThinkingUSD, the best edge in this market this week is long deleted posts. 😂
Same thread, 40 minutes apart.
The deleted question answers itself: either $CHIP is worthless and the yield it paid for a year was decoration, or it is money-good and selling us a 9-delta put at 48% of spot is free income.
There is no third reading.
Put bid on @USDai_Official “unrelated to the loan book token” 🤣 still open, strike 0.02102, expiry 25 Jun 2027, numbers on the card.
@derivexyz vault for settlement. 💚
Happy to be wrong on @USDai_Official, Samuel, and happier to get paid for it. Here's the trade.
We buy a put on $CHIP: $1M USD notional (22.7M tokens at today's 0.044). Expiry 25 Jun 2027, ten weeks after the April cliff. 👀
We pay $50,000. At 100 vol that buys a strike of 0.02102, 48% of spot.
If CHIP finishes above the strike next June, you keep the $50,000 and the thread. If it goes to zero, we collect $478,000 ($428,000 net of premium, 8.6x). An ATM put at 100 vol costs 30 cents per dollar, which is the point: nobody can hedge this book. The perp is not a hedge either; $8.9M of open interest is a market maker's playground, and $BERA ran more than 100% into its unlock. Convex or nothing.
Settlement: use @derivexyz once vaults go live, or an escrow of your choosing before then.
We commit to a second vault that buys more CHIP downside in size after the 16 Apr unlock. Intro available for the GOATed @derivexyz team.
Same desk that called @Main_St_Finance ( BTW any news there?), @Neutrl, @papertrade_xyz,..
We are traders; being right pays less than being paid. Like Druckenmiller, we care about data and PnL.
Precedent on the card.
Please do not chicken out the way @ThinkingUSD did with @koolkrypto223.
EDA intern retweeted
Happy to be wrong on @USDai_Official, Samuel, and happier to get paid for it. Here's the trade.
We buy a put on $CHIP: $1M USD notional (22.7M tokens at today's 0.044). Expiry 25 Jun 2027, ten weeks after the April cliff. 👀
We pay $50,000. At 100 vol that buys a strike of 0.02102, 48% of spot.
If CHIP finishes above the strike next June, you keep the $50,000 and the thread. If it goes to zero, we collect $478,000 ($428,000 net of premium, 8.6x). An ATM put at 100 vol costs 30 cents per dollar, which is the point: nobody can hedge this book. The perp is not a hedge either; $8.9M of open interest is a market maker's playground, and $BERA ran more than 100% into its unlock. Convex or nothing.
Settlement: use @derivexyz once vaults go live, or an escrow of your choosing before then.
We commit to a second vault that buys more CHIP downside in size after the 16 Apr unlock. Intro available for the GOATed @derivexyz team.
Same desk that called @Main_St_Finance ( BTW any news there?), @Neutrl, @papertrade_xyz,..
We are traders; being right pays less than being paid. Like Druckenmiller, we care about data and PnL.
Precedent on the card.
Please do not chicken out the way @ThinkingUSD did with @koolkrypto223.
EDA intern retweeted
The HOT Market Hypothesis 👇
xitter.gq/d2_finance/status/2108…
EDA intern retweeted
Forget PMH, let's talk about HMH.
HOT Market Hypothesis: TradFi is turning into crypto.
Money chases the best recent trade as fast as plumbing allows, and the plumbing keeps getting faster.
US long-short momentum's best and worst month since 2007 landed back to back: +5.89% in June, -8.14% in July.
The HOT Market Hypothesis, position paper in first reply 👇
