@ElecCollPolls

Moved to Mastodon. Find us at @electiongraphs@newsie.social.

 Everett, WA
electiongraphs.com
Joined August 2014
  • Tweets16.3K
  • Following64
  • Followers586
107Media
This account and our sister account @ElectionGraphs are shutting down here, merging, and opening up over on Mastodon for the 2024 Presidential election season. Find us over there at @[email protected]. Thanks!
1
214
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs1 Jan 2023
Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 electiongraphs.com/blog/2023… #Election2024
2
606
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs22 Aug 2022
Knock Knock... Is this thing on? electiongraphs.com/blog/2022… #Election2020
2
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs7 Jan 2021
I just added a final update to our Election Results tracking post to reflect that there were no faithless electors and no changes at the session that just ended. Thanks again everyone for following us in 2020. See you again for 2024! electiongraphs.com/blog/2020…
2
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs13 Nov 2020
With Georgia called for Biden a little bit ago, we now have calls for everything. So we are officially at Biden 306, Trump 232. So a margin of Biden by 74. With that, we wrapped up our results post with an initial look at how we did. Which was not bad. electiongraphs.com/blog/2020…
2
2
5
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs10 Nov 2020
We have a call from @DecisionDeskHQ on NC, so we updated our post tracking our results. New range of possible outcomes based on uncalled “Weak” states is Biden by 42 to Biden by 74. If things go as per the current counts, we’ll have Biden by 74. electiongraphs.com/blog/2020…
2
2
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs7 Nov 2020
Fox called NV as well, so assuming all the calls hold (including the AZ call) the range of possible outcomes based on how the uncalled states go is from Biden by 42 to Biden by 104.
2
1
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs7 Nov 2020
Looks like all the major news outlets simultaneously called Pennsylvania, and the whole election, when Biden's lead went over 0.5% a few moments ago. But we were past that point yesterday. We'd already moved PA to the Biden column.
2
2
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs6 Nov 2020
If all the remaining states just go to the candidate who currently leads the vote count, which looks very reasonable at this point, you get Biden 306 to Trump 232, or Biden by 74 EV.
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs6 Nov 2020
And even if AZ is uncalled, the range would be Biden by 8 to Biden by 104. It is over either way.
2
1
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs6 Nov 2020
And even if AZ is uncalled, the range would be Biden by 8 to Biden by 104. It is over either way.
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs6 Nov 2020
With @DecisionDeskHQ calling PA for Biden, unless the folks who called AZ reverse their calls, we now have the range of possible outcomes ranging from Biden by 30 to Biden by 104. Biden wins the Presidency. The only remaining question is by how much. electiongraphs.com/blog/2020…
2
1
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs6 Nov 2020
With @DecisionDeskHQ calling PA for Biden, unless the folks who called AZ reverse their calls, we now have the range of possible outcomes ranging from Biden by 30 to Biden by 104. Biden wins the Presidency. The only remaining question is by how much. electiongraphs.com/blog/2020…
2
1
2
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs4 Nov 2020
Of course moments after I tweet that, ME-CD2 gets called for Trump by AP. That was also “Weak Biden” with a Biden lead of 2.7%. Odds wise we said Trump had a 28.6% chance of winning ME-CD2.
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs4 Nov 2020
So far, the only state that flipped sides relative to our final categorizations is Florida, which was “Weak Biden”. Biden was at an 0.7% lead. We translated that to a 53.2% chance of a Biden win, 46.8% for a Trump win. Close to a coin-toss. So a flip was not surprising at all.
2
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs4 Nov 2020
So far, the only state that flipped sides relative to our final categorizations is Florida, which was “Weak Biden”. Biden was at an 0.7% lead. We translated that to a 53.2% chance of a Biden win, 46.8% for a Trump win. Close to a coin-toss. So a flip was not surprising at all.
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs4 Nov 2020
I’ve been updating the post below as states have been called through the night based on how the remaining “weak” states might swing back and forth. Current range of possibilities goes from Trump by 42 EV to Biden by 118 EV. Lots of possibilities still out there.
2
1
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs3 Nov 2020
Live Election Graphs Results Updates electiongraphs.com/blog/2020… #Election2020
3
1
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs3 Nov 2020
Election Day: Final Tightening? electiongraphs.com/blog/2020… #Election2020
2
Elect. College Polls retweeted
Election Graphs@ElectionGraphs3 Nov 2020
No more new polls for @ElecCollPolls! Final nowcast: Ind States Median: Biden+108 (-16) Cats Expected: Biden+132 (Flat) Tipping Pt: Biden+2.3% (-0.7%) Biden Win odds: 68.1% to 97.2% (Mid Pt 82.7%) Final blog post coming soon. electiongraphs.com/2020ec/ #Election2020
2
2
Poll added in NH: SurveyMonkey RV [28] 2020-10-20 to 2020-11-02 Biden 54.0% Trump 43.0% New NH @ElectionGraphs average: Biden up by 11.2% (Solid Biden) [Biden 54.2%, Trump 43.0%] More info: electiongraphs.com/2020ec/po… #Election2020
Poll added in NJ: SurveyMonkey RV [28] 2020-10-20 to 2020-11-02 Biden 59.0% Trump 38.0% New NJ @ElectionGraphs average: Biden up by 21.0% (Solid Biden) [Biden 58.7%, Trump 37.7%] More info: electiongraphs.com/2020ec/po… #Election2020
Poll added in MA: SurveyMonkey RV [28] 2020-10-20 to 2020-11-02 Biden 68.0% Trump 29.0% New MA @ElectionGraphs average: Biden up by 36.7% (Solid Biden) [Biden 66.1%, Trump 29.4%] More info: electiongraphs.com/2020ec/po… #Election2020
Poll added in NC: SurveyMonkey RV [28] 2020-10-20 to 2020-11-02 Biden 51.0% Trump 47.0% New NC @ElectionGraphs average: Biden up by 0.6% (Weak Biden) [Biden 48.4%, Trump 47.8%] More info: electiongraphs.com/2020ec/po… #Election2020
Load more