EliteInCrypto (tweets ≠ financial advice)

While Willow represents a significant breakthrough in quantum computing, it is unlikely that it can “crack Bitcoin” in its current form. Here’s why: 1. What does “crack Bitcoin” mean? •If it means breaking Bitcoin’s cryptographic algorithms (like ECDSA): Bitcoin relies on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) for private-public key encryption and SHA-256 for hashing. Cracking ECDSA would allow an attacker to derive private keys from public keys, which would compromise Bitcoin addresses. •How hard is this? ECDSA’s security is based on the difficulty of solving the “elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem” (ECDLP), which is extremely hard for classical computers. •Can quantum computers crack it? In theory, Shor’s algorithm could break ECDLP. For this, a large-scale quantum computer with millions of error-free logical qubits is required. Willow, with 105 qubits, is still far from this scale. Moreover, error-corrected qubits (logical qubits) are needed, and while Willow has made breakthroughs in error correction, it is still a long way from having enough stable, logical qubits to run Shor’s algorithm on Bitcoin’s 256-bit ECDSA keys. 2. Willow’s Capabilities vs. What is Needed to Crack Bitcoin •Qubit Count: Willow has 105 qubits, but to run Shor’s algorithm to break a 256-bit ECDSA key, you would need millions of error-corrected logical qubits. Current quantum chips have physical qubits, but it takes many physical qubits to create one error-corrected logical qubit. •Error Correction: Willow’s major achievement is exponential error reduction as it scales up the number of qubits. This is essential for building larger quantum computers, but it’s still at the prototype stage. Bitcoin-cracking would require robust, stable qubits that can run long computations without errors. •Speed: While Willow can perform computations in 5 minutes that would take supercomputers 10 septillion years, these computations are highly specific (random circuit sampling) and do not generalize to ECDSA cracking. •Shor’s Algorithm Feasibility: Running Shor’s algorithm on a 256-bit key requires a vastly larger and more stable quantum computer than Willow. 3. How Close is Quantum Computing to Cracking Bitcoin? •Current Quantum Computers (like Willow): Not even close. Willow demonstrates exponential improvements in error correction, but it is far from being large and stable enough to break cryptographic protocols like ECDSA. •Estimates for the Future: Estimates vary, but most experts believe that it could take 10 to 20 years to develop a large enough, error-corrected quantum computer to threaten Bitcoin. •Research and Mitigation: Bitcoin developers are aware of this possibility and are working on quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms. If quantum computers become a credible threat, Bitcoin’s protocol can be upgraded to use “quantum-safe” cryptography. 4. Summary •Can Willow crack Bitcoin? No. Willow is a groundbreaking chip, but it lacks the qubit count, stability, and scalability needed to break Bitcoin’s encryption. •When could Bitcoin be cracked by quantum computing? Experts predict 10-20 years, but by then, Bitcoin will likely be upgraded to quantum-resistant cryptography. •Should you worry now? No. Quantum computing is progressing fast, but Bitcoin has time to adapt to quantum-safe algorithms.