Pacific Forum Adjunct Sr Fellow; China & Taiwan analyst; Fulbright Scholar; E Larus Consulting LLC; Author, Politics & Society in Contemporary China
Greater Washington DC area
Joined January 2022
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Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
It's impossible to describe the impact this scene had on those of us who'd been fans of this comedy for years. I like so many others was left stunned by it. Still resonates today. Still makes me cry.
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
A lot of us had tears in our eyes when we watched the finale to the brilliant historical sitcom, Blackadder. For me it has the same effect today, and so it should.
Lest we forget.
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
Major League Baseball Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson called out antisemitism in his home state of Philadelphia, comparing it to racism he experienced in the 1960s, in a post on X/Twitter.
jpost.com/diaspora/antisemit…
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
URGENT: Egyptian prosecutors are seeking the death penalty or a 25-year prison sentence for Said Mansour Rezk Abdelrazek, a former Muslim who converted to Christianity.
His only “crime” is believing in Jesus Christ.
Another reminder of Egypt’s brutal authoritarianism and the persecution of Christians.
All human rights and Christian organizations must demand that the Egyptian authorities release him immediately.
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
🇹🇼 BREAKING: Taiwan receives its second batch of F-16V Block 70 fighters from the United States.
Three additional jets have arrived, bringing deliveries to 5 of 66 ordered aircraft.
Taiwan is gradually building its next generation F-16V fleet.
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
1/3 @Nvidia spokespeople are (again!) claiming (falsely!) that its products are not aiding China's military modernization. We @CSETGeorgetown have a bunch of evidence that, in fact, the PLA wants to buy a range of Nvidia chips, including those that are export-controlled.
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
Can I still get a free upgrade with my status? Hell no!
Airlines now sell the first class seats they used to give away. Fifteen years ago, Delta's domestic first class was 92% full, but only 12% of those passengers had paid for it. Half of them were connecting from international business class, so Delta was really selling about 6% of the cabin. Everyone else was on an upgrade or an award.
Delta's fix was price. Glen Hauenstein said first class used to cost 13 times the average coach fare at booking, so almost nobody bought it. Delta brought that gap way down and started selling cheap buy-ups after booking. By 2024 the cabin was still 92% full, but about 75% of it was paid. Hauenstein said in June that it's now about 87%. In a 16-seat cabin, that's 2 seats left for upgrades instead of 14.
Alaska and American went the same way. Alaska's paid first class load factor was 35% to 40% in 2017 and 75% at the end of 2024. American says its premium cabins were mid-60s paid before the pandemic and nearly 80% now. United doesn't publish the number, but says paid domestic first is up 13 points since 2019.
ALT Seat maps comparing first class seats left for upgrades out of 16. Delta: 14 in 2009 to 2 in 2026, 86% fewer. Alaska: 10 in 2017 to 4 in 2024, 60% fewer. American: 6 in 2019 to 3 in 2025, 50% fewer.
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
🖤 A Black Day For Remembrance Weekend
This weekend, something has shifted — and not for the better.
For over a century, the red poppy has stood alone. It is the universal, unchanging symbol of Remembrance. When blood ran on Flanders Fields, on the Somme, on the beaches of Normandy, in the mud of Korea, the dust of Helmand — it was one colour only: red. It represents the sacrifice of every man and woman who served, regardless of background, creed, or cause. It binds us together in grief and gratitude, above all division.
Yet now we see black poppies laid alongside them — presented not as a personal tribute, but as a public statement, each bearing labels: "Ethnic Minority Veterans Support Network", "Black History Wales 365", "Muslim Council of Wales".
Let me be clear: the service and sacrifice of all veterans, from every community, deserves equal honour. No one disputes that. Those who wore the Monarch’s uniform did so side by side, under one flag, answering one call. Their service is indivisible. Their memory should be too.
But Remembrance Sunday is not a platform for identity politics. It is the one sacred day in the veteran’s calendar when we do not ask who they were — only that they were there, and many did not come home. To fragment our act of Remembrance along cultural or community lines is not inclusion — it is division. It politicises silence. It breaks the single thread that should bind all our tributes into one.
If we truly value the contribution of minority veterans, we should recognise them within our shared act of Remembrance — not carve them out into separate wreaths, separate symbols, separate narratives. The red poppy already belongs to them. It always has. It was there for them on the battlefield; it should be there for them at the memorial.
When we lay different colours at the Cenotaph, we do not celebrate difference — we dilute the meaning of the one symbol that transcends it. The blood that was shed was not black or white or brown. It was red. And that red should be enough for all of us.
Lest we forget — lest we become the generation that remembers everything except unity.
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
On this day in 1989, the Berlin Wall comes down. The infamous barrier between East and West stood for exactly 10,315 days.
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
Hundreds of London black cabs lined Westminster Bridge again today, waiting to take veterans home from the Cenotaph without charging a penny.
The service, now called Cabs for Veterans after running for years as Poppy Cabs, began in 2009 with fifteen taxis parked on the bridge, marking the eleventh hour while they waited for veterans coming off the trains. The drivers had realised something nobody had thought much about: every London black cab is wheelchair accessible, and for a lot of veterans that is the difference between attending and staying at home.
Seventeen years on it runs to over a thousand free journeys, most of them packed into about two hours either side of the service. Drivers meet veterans at the mainline stations, take them to Whitehall, then wait and take them back again. The whole thing is funded by the cabbies themselves, time, fuel and all, often with family and friends along to help.
As one organiser put it, there is no more moving sight than standing on Westminster Bridge as Big Ben strikes eleven and seeing hundreds of black cabs lined up in silence.
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
At the going down the sun and in the morning, We will remember them.
ALT A black and white historical image shows a group of soldiers walking through a battlefield. Overlaid is a large red poppy with the words "LEST WE FORGET" in the center. Below, "REMEMBRANCE SUNDAY 2026" is written. A crest is at the top of the image.
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
ft.com/content/8407d5dc-c231…
Excellent @FT analysis by @leahyjoseph and @edwardwhitenz examines Xi’s relentless campaign to eliminate “serious hidden dangers” within the CCP, including cadres who profess loyalty but act only when convenient. Some 7.2 million Party members disciplined since 2012, including 632 senior “tigers.” Roughly 800,000 annually during Xi’s third term, five times the Hu Jintao-era rate.
Fifth Plenum message: Absolute loyalty or risk expulsion and worse.
They quote leading China experts:
· #Phillip_Saunders at #NDU: Military purges could undermine PLA readiness for a Taiwan invasion.
· #Steve_Tsang at #SOAS: Party loyalty trumps combat experience; rectification politicizes decisions at every level.
· #David_Bandurski @ChinaMediaProject: Xi’s cure for Party dysfunction is perpetual “self-revolution.”
· #Zhuoran_Li: Cadre evaluations reward political conformity, not just economic growth.
· #Alexander_Davey @merics_eu: Xi insists on internal Party reform rather than external oversight.
· @vshih2 at #UCSD: Purges create corrosive incentives to inform on colleagues.
· #Sheana_Yue at #Oxford_Economics: Fear breeds a dangerous echo chamber.
· #Minxin_Pei at #Claremont_McKenna: Bad advice may reach Xi unchecked until policy disasters expose it.
· @chrisnyeeee @JamestownTweets: Xi keeps increasing the dosage of medicine that isn't working.
The paradox: Xi’s pursuit of absolute loyalty may be sacrificing the competence, candor, and initiative China needs to govern effectively and fight a war.
#XiJinping #China #CCP #PLA #ChinaPolitics
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
Major Chinese Naval Exercise Underway
Involving over 100 vessels from all three Chinese fleets (East Sea, South Sea and North Sea) is unusual and a significant development. Additionally troubling is that the exercise was not announced as has been the norm.
And the current Commander of Pacific Command has warned that such exercises/drills can be cover for future hostile action: defenseone.com/threats/2025/…
See the ISW report here for more: understandingwar.org/researc…
Read here for why this isn’t unexpected and how to ensure deterrence sustained: amazon.com/Naval-Power-Actio…
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
一名据信受极右翼意识形态启发的枪手在波兰第二大城市克拉科夫（Krakow）繁忙的市中心发动袭击，造成六人死亡、十多人受伤。
警方表示，袭击者11月7日下午驾车闯入克拉科夫热门旅游景点中央集市广场（Main Market Square），并向人群随机开枪。
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
In the wake of the tragic events in Kraków, Poland observes a period of national mourning.
We extend our heartfelt condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims and pay tribute to the police and all emergency services 🙏
Our thoughts are with all those affected 🖤
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
In 1918, shortly before his own death, Wilfred Owen distilled the entire absurdity of war into this devastating short poem.
‘The Last Laugh’, performed by Sean Bean.
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
面对一把冲进市中心步行街的突击步枪，两名普通巡警该往哪跑？
答案是：他们根本不准跑。
甚至连退到街角等待特警都不行。
2026 年 11 月 7 日下午三点，波兰克拉科夫的中央集市广场，突发了一场严重的枪击案。
一名 24 岁的男子身穿全套战术迷彩和防弹背心，手持一把 AR-15 半自动步枪，驾车直接冲进步行街，对着人群无差别扫射。
石板路上瞬间倒下十几人，6 人当场遇难。
就在人群惊慌溃散的时候，最靠近现场的一辆巡逻警车到了。
车里下来的不是全副武装的特战队员，只是克拉科夫警局的两位年轻基层巡警：高级巡警 Jakub Kulik 和他的搭档 Artur Morański。
从第一声枪响、市民拨打 112 报警，到这两名巡警拔枪冲到枪手面前，只有 3 分钟。
很多人第一反应可能是：警察遇到枪手，拔枪对射不是很正常吗？
但把现场两边的装备账本摊开来看，这根本不是一场对等的交火。
枪手手里拿的是 AR-15 步枪，打的是 5.56 毫米步枪弹。
弹头飞出枪口的速度接近每秒 900 米，动能超过 1700 焦耳。
而两位基层巡警腰里挂着的，只是日常执勤配发的 9 毫米手枪。
子弹初速只有每秒 360 米左右，动能大约 500 焦耳。
更要命的是防护差距。
街头日常巡警身上穿的，通常只是轻薄的软质防弹内衬。
这种防弹衣设计出来的初衷，是为了挡住手枪弹和弹片。
面对初速极高、穿透力极强的步枪弹，软质防弹衣几乎就是一层布，根本拦不住。
在几十米的交火距离上，手枪在步枪面前不仅射程吃亏、弹容量吃亏，而且毫无火力压制能力。
既然明知道火力完全不对称，为什么巡警不先找个拐角掩体，等待重装特警支援？
因为在现代警务战术里，有一套非常残酷的主动枪击接敌机制。
在 1999 年美国科伦拜恩高中枪击案之前，很多国家的警务守则都是等待。
巡警赶到现场，先拉警戒线，把外围封锁起来，然后等待特警战术分队赶来突击。
但后来无数次血淋淋的惨剧打碎了这个旧规矩。
在密集的公共场所，手持半自动步枪的凶手，每秒钟就能打出一发子弹。
特警分队集结、穿戴重装备、规划路线再赶到现场，往往需要 15 到 20 分钟。
这 20 分钟里，枪手可以把几百发子弹从容倾泻在手无寸铁的人群身上。
后来警务界彻底推翻了旧教条，建立了一条死命令：
只要公共场所的枪声还在响，不管先赶到的是几个人，不管手里拿的是什么武器，严禁就地等待支援。
哪怕只有两个人，甚至哪怕只有一个人，也必须立刻迎着枪声往前冲。
用自己的配枪在最短时间内开火接敌，哪怕打不中，也要把枪手的注意力从平民身上引到自己身上。
这就是为什么 Jakub Kulik 和搭档接到报警 3 分钟就出现在枪手面前。
枪手的车在街口撞停，提着步枪冲了下来。
双方在街角直接迎面撞上。
步枪子弹瞬间扫了过来。
Jakub Kulik 迎面中弹，步枪弹直接打穿了防弹背心，贯穿了他的胸膛，撕裂了肺部。
肺部被打穿在生理上叫创伤性张力性气胸。
每一次呼吸都伴随着剧烈的撕裂感和大量胸腔出血，血液含氧量在几秒钟内断崖式下跌，血压骤降。
在极端失血和剧痛面前，人脑底层的生物自保本能，会疯狂命令身体蜷缩、扔掉武器、寻找暗处躲藏。
但网络上流传的一段十几秒的现场视频，记录下了让人震撼的真实一幕。
身受重伤、胸口不断涌血的 Jakub Kulik 没有后退。
他依靠单膝支撑着身体，双手死死握住自己的配枪，对着车后的枪手果断还击。
一枪接一枪，直到把整整一弹匣的手枪子弹全部打空，套筒卡在后方。
随后赶到的特警从枪手的车里，搜出了大量的成箱备用弹药和其它枪械。
如果不是这两名巡警在 3 分钟内迎着枪火接敌，如果不是中弹穿肺的巡警拼死打空弹匣压制住凶手，这些弹药会全部倾泻在广场旁边的咖啡馆、历史大厅和成百上千名游客身上。
随后，Jakub Kulik 被紧急送往克拉科夫的医院实施开胸手术。
全波兰各地的消防员和市民迅速在网络上排队为他献血，波兰总理也公开向这两名年轻警察致敬。
平时我们看现代社会的运转，常常会盯着那些复杂的法律条文、宏大的监控系统或精密的技术防线。
但当最极端的暴力突然在街头爆发，真正能把一场屠杀拦下来的，从来不是挂在墙上的管理规定。
在那个致命的街角，挡在狂徒与几百个无辜平民之间的全部屏障，其实就是两名领着普通月薪的年轻巡警，以及他们哪怕肺部被子弹穿透，也依然死死扣住扳机不肯放手的职业操守。
Elizabeth Freund Larus retweeted
Bipartisan leaders of the House Select Committee on the CCP are pressing the Air Force to explain the defunding of its Chinese Aerospace Studies Institute and warning that killing the think tank risks undermining deterrence of Communist China washingtontimes.com/news/202…
