EmergingMarketWatch

#Morocco - Central government budget deficit narrows to MAD 33.1bn in Jan-Sep - Deficit narrows 36.8% y/y, with 59.8% of full-year target reached by end-September - Corporate tax and non-tax receipts drive revenue growth, while innovative financing and public-enterprise transfers support collections - Compensation costs exceed their annual budget, increasing pressure on fiscal execution in Q4 emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Brazil - Flávio Bolsonaro claims the elections were rigged, but doesn't provide evidence - Flávio calls himself Brazil's leader, backtracking from his initial claim to be the country's 'true elected president' - Flávio says he will communicate regularly with Brazilians and develop a strategy to prevent Lula from establishing a 'state of exception' - The statements suggest a lack of coordination between Flávio and his party, which has recognized Lula's reelection emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Mexico - CB’s Borja says 6.50% policy rate is fine - Borja diverges from recent minutes, seems to stand in the hawkish minority - Says inflation is converging with the CB's target but recognizes the fight on inflation is not over emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Montenegro - Retail sales growth accelerates to 4.7% y/y in Q3 - Retail sales growth accelerates likely due to stronger annual increase in fuel retail sales - Domestic demand remains strong, supported by strong tourism sector performance - Inflation resurgence, falling real wages may have adverse effects on domestic demand emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Montenegro - Retail sales growth accelerates to 4.7% y/y in Q3 - Retail sales growth accelerates likely due to stronger annual increase in fuel retail sales - Domestic demand remains strong, supported by strong tourism sector performance - Inflation resurgence, falling real wages may have adverse effects on domestic demand emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Brazil - Flávio Bolsonaro arrives in Miami with his family - Images show Flávio disembarking in Miami, Florida, after leaving Brazil late Tues. - Allies say Flávio is expected to hold a press conference in the coming days - His departure leaves the right without a clear leader and could weaken the Bolsonaro family's influence, although we are skeptical that such a shift will happen quickly emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Thailand - BOT keeps policy rate unchanged at 1.00% as expected - Growth forecasts raised slightly for both 2026 and 2027, inflation forecasts revised slightly lower - BOT says inflation risks related to El Niño warrant close monitoring - BOT mentions need to monitor impact of low interest environment on long-term macro stability - BOT makes slight hawkish shift in statement, mentions upside inflation risks emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Thailand - BOT keeps policy rate unchanged at 1.00% as expected - Growth forecasts raised slightly for both 2026 and 2027, inflation forecasts revised slightly lower - BOT says inflation risks related to El Niño warrant close monitoring - BOT mentions need to monitor impact of low interest environment on long-term macro stability - BOT makes slight hawkish shift in statement, mentions upside inflation risks emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Uzbekistan - GDP grows by 8.3% y/y over Jan-Sep - GDP grew by 8.5% y/y during Jan-Jun - Government forecasts 2026 GDP growth at 8.1% emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Israel - Netanyahu-led bloc pulls ahead with 55 MKs – 51.8% of vote counted - Partial results indicate stalemate, significant challenges for establishing government - Results show different picture from exit polls, final count might still change markedly emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Chile - BCCh unanimously holds MPR at 4.50% as expected, guidance turns more hawkish - Explicit guidance remains meeting-by-meeting, but stronger inflation warning gives more weight to hike risks emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#IvoryCoast - Industrial output growth accelerates to 11.7% y/y in August - Extractive, manufacturing sectors post faster growth - Rebound in metallic ore output is driven by gold - Industrial output grows by 3.2% y/y in Jan-Aug emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Lithuania - Bank lending growth eases to 12.7% y/y in September - Lending to NFCs rises at a softer y/y pace, while household lending growth remains stable - Deposit growth edges down y/y as household deposits increase at a decelerating, but still robust rate emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Mexico - Trade deficit hits USD 0.6bn in September, as trade continues to skyrocket - Exports grow 37.9% y/y, on the back of non-auto manufacturing - Non-auto manufacturing exports lose momentum m/m, in part due to a base effect - Imports grow 33.1% y/y, on the back of intermediate imports - But capital and consumer imports gain momentum m/m, seemingly unaffected by the currency's depreciation emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Mexico - Trade deficit hits USD 0.6bn in September, as trade continues to skyrocket - Exports grow 37.9% y/y, on the back of non-auto manufacturing - Non-auto manufacturing exports lose momentum m/m, in part due to a base effect - Imports grow 33.1% y/y, on the back of intermediate imports - But capital and consumer imports gain momentum m/m, seemingly unaffected by the currency's depreciation emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Bosnia-Herzegovina - Industrial output falls by 0.5% y/y in September - Worsening due to manufacturing and mining sectors - Industrial production decreases by 2.1% y/y in January-September - Outlook remains gloomy amid weak external demand emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Bulgaria - Loan growth decelerates to 16.5% y/y in September - Deceleration is specifically visible in corporate segment, probably reflecting higher uncertainty, in our view - Retail loan growth also decelerates, entirely due to slower mortgage lending growth - Non-performing loan ratio of total loans declines to 3.23% as of end-September emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Lithuania - Industrial output rises by 7.0% y/y in September - Industrial production rises by 1.8% m/m, as manufacturing output rebounds - Capital and durable consumer goods output returns to double-digit y/y gains in September - Base effects support headline increase, but we think Q4 outlook remains broadly positive emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Lithuania - Retail sales rise by 5.6% y/y in September - Retail sales increase by 0.5% in m/m terms, reflecting broad-based gains - Non-food sales increase by 12.0% y/y in September, picking up pace from August - We expect positive retail sales momentum in Q4 amid still favourable income dynamics emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets

#Estonia - Loan growth accelerates to 9.0% y/y in September - Acceleration driven by all segments, suggests positive consumption and investment momentum, in our view - Corporate loan growth accelerates to 12.0% y/y, household loan growth strengthens to 10.6% y/y - Bad loan ratio remains at 1.1% of total loans emergingmarketwatch.com/brow… #EmergingMarkets