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Independent #macroeconomic #political #consultancy focused on #China - one of the most misunderstood economies, but one of the most important to figure out

London, England
Joined July 2016
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1/5 #China's strategic deployment of #RareEarth export restrictions compelled the #US to negotiate at Lancaster House in mid-June, following two months of sharply deteriorating bilateral relations after #LiberationDay.
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4/5 The most likely medium-term outcome is a ‘#GracefulDeclineDeal’: a temporary arrangement where the #US concedes more than #China in exchange for immediate market stability and superficial diplomatic thaw.
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5/5 With America’s strategic options increasingly constrained and #China’s leverage more sophisticated, it appears that the #US is now forced into an accommodation that signals American exceptionalism is over.
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1/10 “I like President #Xi of #China, always have, and always will,” US President Donald #Trump wrote on Truth Social on June 4. “But he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!”
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9/10 As we discussed in a recent @EnodoEconomics report, it achieved tactical stabilisation rather than strategic breakthrough.
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10/10 The fundamental asymmetry remains unchanged: #China demonstrated superior leverage through rare earth controls while #America lacks equivalent surgical response tools, setting the stage for what we call a "Graceful Deal Decline".
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