Share interesting information about world events to discuss with you. Liberal democratic basic order = no scissors in the head. On Bluesky with same handle.
Germany
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EventFlow42 retweeted
No Jared. The question Europeans are asking the most is, are you really that stupid, or do you just think we are?
EventFlow42 retweeted
"Allowing Russia to decide the borders of Europe will be a huge mistake. Not only for Ukraine, but for everything we believe in. And because of that, also the future of Europe."
PM Mette Frederiksen 🇩🇰
EventFlow42 retweeted
Asking Russia for permission on Ukraine's security guarantees is like giving burglars a say in a home security system.
EventFlow42 retweeted
BREAKING: Whistleblowers have told House Democrats that documents linked to President Trump's construction projects in Washington are being destroyed - CNN
EventFlow42 retweeted
‼️ DER DÜMMSTE FRIEDENSPLAN DES JAHRES: MAN MALT PUTIN DEN DONBAS EINFACH AUF DIE KARTE ‼️🤬
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
Putin hat es in all den Jahren nicht geschafft, den ganzen Donbas zu erobern. Kein Problem, dachten sich die US-Unterhändler. Dann ändert man eben die Karte.
🔸 Laut The Economist haben US-Verhandler die Idee ins Spiel gebracht, die Grenzen der Oblaste Donezk und Luhansk neu zu ziehen. Ukrainische Städte würden auf dem Papier aus diesen Gebieten herausgeschnitten, und Putin könnte behaupten, er habe den Donbas "vollständig" unter Kontrolle.
🔸 Das ist Kriegsführung mit dem Textmarker. Die Front bewegt sich nicht, also verschiebt man einfach die Linien im Atlas.
🔸 Als kleines Extra soll russisches Öl und Gas laut Economist wieder nach Europa fließen dürfen. Die Ukraine und die Europäer lehnen das ab. Ein ukrainischer Regierungsvertreter sagte dazu: "Dem werden wir niemals zustimmen, solange der Krieg andauert."
🔸 Eine Quelle aus der ukrainischen Delegation bestreitet laut Interfax-Ukraine, dass die Idee am ersten Verhandlungstag in Abu Dhabi auf den Tisch kam. Schon gut, dass überhaupt jemand ernsthaft darüber nachgedacht hat.
🔸 Nächster Schritt: Man benennt Kyjiw in "Teilweise Moskau" um, damit Putin auch hier einen Erfolg feiern kann. Und Trump bekommt eine Weltkarte, auf der jeder Krieg schon nach 24 Stunden beendet ist.
Fazit: Wer einem Diktator Gebiete auf dem Papier schenkt, damit er sein Gesicht wahrt, lädt ihn ein, sich den Rest später in echt zu holen. Friedensdiplomatie ... auf hohem Niveau.
#StandWithUkraine #SlavaUkraini 💙💛
EventFlow42 retweeted
Puisqu'on me demande d'être sérieux, relevons donc un peu le débat avec quelques chiffres :
◻️Il y a bien une diminution des assauts russes 🇷🇺, on est passé de 150 attaques par jours à environ 80 en moyenne. Mais, il y a plusieurs raisons à cela : les ukrainiens 🇺🇦 frappent de plus en plus loin, les russes perdent plus d'hommes en tentant de rejoindre leurs positions sur le front qu'en attaquant.
▫️70% des assauts sont désormais réalisés par les ukrainiens, qui sont actuellement à l'offensive dans 3 directions, mais qui mènent aussi des missions de nettoyages des infiltrations, comptabilisées comme des assauts.
▫️Moins d'assaut ne veut pas dire moins de pertes, au contraire, cela veut dire que l'armée russe n'attaque plus partout et avance moins. L'année dernière, il y avait 150 assauts quotidiens, mais la Russie prenait 400km2 par mois, cette année, il y a moins d'assauts, mais ils ne prennent presque aucun terrain, ce qui montre qu'une bonne partie des assauts échouent.
◻️Aucun rapport de destruction du matériel ukrainien n'évoque 5:1, je suis curieux d'en voir la source et les preuves. Tenons nous en à Oryx, qui donne 1:1.5 (preuve à l'appui en commentaires).
▫️Maintenant, est ce que perdre moins de véhicules veut dire qu'on perd moins d'hommes ? Absolument pas, au contraire. On sait que les russes ont retiré la majorité de leurs blindés du front depuis début 2025, ce que n'ont pas fait les ukrainiens, qui utilisent encore largement leurs MRAP et APC pour transporter leurs troupes en sécurité.
▫️On oublierai trop vite les 12 à 15 000 véhicules non blindés (voitures, motos, quads, buggy...) perdus mensuellement par la Russie, dont 1/3 sont comptabilisés par l'USF. Prendre un FPV en moto/quad (1 500 frappes par mois juste pour l'USF), c'est avoir une chance de blessure/mort élevée et sans compter les 3 500 à 4 000 véhicules légers frappés chaque mois par l'USF.
▫️On oublierai aussi que les pertes sont exponentielles depuis la fin de l'utilisation des blindés et le début de la stratégie d'infiltration (début 2024). Il suffit de regarder Mediazona 5 minutes pour s'en rendre compte.
◻️Dernier point, oui il y a infiniment plus de morts qu'à Bakhmout et c'est confirmé par toutes les preuves disponibles.
▫️A Bakhmout, les ukrainiens ont perdu 11 000 hommes pendant 10 mois et les russes au minimum 15 000. A Pokrovsk, les ukrainiens ont perdu au minimum (chiffres encore incomplets) 15-20 000 hommes et les russes (peut-être avec les données de Rosstat, à confirmer) 40 000 hommes.
▫️Quelques minutes à observer les graphiques de ce qui est confirmé côté ukrainien ou russe (les données de 2024 et 2025 arrivent encore), nous avons environ 3 500 ukrainiens tués par mois durant Bakhmout en 2023 et presque 6 000 par mois fin 2024 - début 2025. Côté russe, au sommet de la bataille de Bakhmout, on est à 5 000 morts par mois, contre 10 à 12 000 par mois fin 2024 - début 2025.
Maintenant, revenons sur l'information qui fait débat : le fait que j'annonce des pertes russes importantes d'après mes sources (des dronistes FPV), confirmé par l'USF et les officiels ukrainiens, ainsi que de nombreux experts.
Je vous donne ici l'ensemble des données sourcées qui permettent de comprendre comment une telle augmentation est possible.
Merci à tous d'avoir suivi
(graphique de @M0nstas qui montre à quel point à la fois Mediazona et Rosstat et leurs données incomplètes sont très proches de ce que donne l'etat-major ukrainien, qui, on le rappelle, compte morts et blessés dans ses résumés quotidiens. Ainsi, en extrapolant le ratio tués:blessés (qui ne cesse de diminuer), on peut anticiper les pertes actuelles).
EventFlow42 retweeted
OCCRP hat sich detailliert angeschaut, wen die russische Desinformationskampagne Doppelgänger so als „Experten“ für Interviews gewinnen kann. Interessanter Thread und Artikel:
EventFlow42 retweeted
Merz reagiert auf Kritik von Fico, der die deutsche Verknüpfung des EU-Haushalts mit der Zustimmung zum neuen Ukraine-Milliarden-Kredit „Erpressung“ nennt:
Die Ukraine-Unterstützung sei „eine gemeinsame europäische Aufgabe, keine Aufgabe einzelner Mitgliedsstaaten“, so Merz. „Deswegen gehört die Frage, wie wir die Ukraine in den nächsten Jahren notfalls finanzieren natürlich mit in den Kontext dieser Haushaltsverhandlungen.“
Er verstehe innenpolitische Befindlichkeiten in Ungarn und anderen Ländern, „aber ich habe umgekehrt um Verständnis geworben, dass der größte Beitragszahler in den Haushalt der Europäischen Union, und gleichzeitig das Land, das auch den größten Beitrag zur Unterstützung der Ukraine leistet, Wert darauflegt, dass wir diese grundsätzliche Frage miteinander klären.
Und das steht in den nächsten Tagen und möglicherweise auch in den nächsten Wochen dann eben auf der Tagesordnung.“
EventFlow42 retweeted
Europe helping Ukraine defend itself is not an obstacle to peace. Russia’s invasion, continued aggression and refusal to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty are. Lasting peace requires Russia to end its aggression, not Ukraine to surrender.
EventFlow42 retweeted
These are crucial weeks for Ukraine. It was good to meet Foreign Minister @andrii_sybiha at the G7 in Paris.
However peace talks unfold, Europe will have Ukraine’s back. Sanctions on Moscow stay in place and will be strengthened.
We should not fall for Russian narratives about their alleged security concerns. NATO is a defensive alliance and has never threatened Russia.
Respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity and the right to freely choose alliances are fundamental principles, not bargaining chips.
EventFlow42 retweeted
🇺🇦 Exactly four years ago, soldiers of the 131st Separate Reconnaissance Battalion liberated Snihurivka in the Mykolaiv region, which had been under Russian occupation since March 2022.
The city was an important logistical hub for the Russians and one of the key strongholds of their defense in the south.
On November 10 alone, the Defense Forces liberated almost 260 km² of Ukrainian land and 12 settlements.
The very next day, November 11, the Ukrainian flag returned to Kherson.
EventFlow42 retweeted
The quickest way to end Russia’s war is to hold the positions and move to discussions. What is very important here is that we decided: stop where we are, it’s a ceasefire, and we go to the diplomatic track. It can last one month, two months, or one year. Or it can last longer than we expect today. But we end the hot stage and people stop dying. When you hold, you speak about the contact line, slow down the pace of mobilization; the economy begins to work. You are in discussions. Dialogue is better than guns. That's why the best way to end this war is to exchange guns for words.
Of course, you will have thousands of questions. How to stop? Where to stand? What is the mandate of the monitoring mission? What is demilitarized? What does it mean? What do we need for this? Europeans. Reconstruction. Where to get the money? Thousands of questions, but this is the format to stop the war – ceasefire. If Putin doesn't want a ceasefire and says, “No, I want a long plan, with different questions, both difficult, sensitive, and not. And then, when we sign this long plan, we will stop the war,” it simply means he doesn't want to stop the war.
From an interview with DR Nyheder. (3/3)
EventFlow42 retweeted
Ceding Ukrainian land for peace is just abstract words. It’s not only about reality, even more about philosophy. Putin was talking about Donbas, but then he decided to occupy Kyiv, our capital. His words were about Donbas, but the reality was about Kyiv. He kept saying he was defending Russian-speaking people and then tortured hundreds and thousands to death in Bucha and other places. So that wasn’t about Russian-speaking people.
This is why when Americans asked, “Can you exchange Donbas for security?” I said right there, “Can you tell me what it means? What security? NATO?”
“Not NATO, but similar to NATO.”
“Similar? But you don't want the answer about Donbas to be ‘similar.’ You want a clear answer about Donbas. This is your goal. And this is Putin’s goal, for today. What will you do if we have security guarantees but not NATO?”
They took our nuclear weapons. I'm not a fan of nuclear weapons. I think the world would be a better place without them. But the Russians took our nuclear weapons, didn’t they? They did. Then they stopped our integration into Europe, then prevented us from being in NATO. And in the end they occupied us. This is why it’s an abstract question. Nobody trusts Putin to stop if we leave Donbas. He will pause. Then he will come back in one year, two years, or five years. And who will be guilty?
From an interview with DR Nyheder. (2/3)
EventFlow42 retweeted
Skepticism about providing help to Ukraine is not good for any European country, because it’s all about Russia. Russia is against European rules and values. Pragmatically, it’s important and even necessary to have a strong Ukraine. If European help disappears, the consequences could only be either dangerous or very dangerous.
Dangerous: Russia continues its hybrid attacks, like it did many times in Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, even in Germany and in Nordic countries, like Finland and Denmark. They will start doing it on a massive scale. It's a soft scenario.
Very dangerous: Russia moves deeper into Europe. Putin wants the USSR back and back in the USSR. Now what does that mean? To have influence over the former USSR countries: the Baltic states and Moldova at the very least. So it’s also about countries that are in NATO, which means NATO will have to react. All of Europe will get involved, and the United States. There are also perils at sea. Russia could block the Baltic Sea like it blocks the Black Sea.
From an interview with DR Nyheder. (1/3)
EventFlow42 retweeted
Arrived in Denmark with my team for meetings with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Danish parliamentarians, and leading defense companies. An audience with King Frederik X is also scheduled, along with a separate meeting with the prime ministers of Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Iceland, and Finland.
The main priority is our security and strengthening our defense. There will be new steps to enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities – a strong defense package from Denmark. Thank you for this support!
Denmark has stood with Ukraine since the first days of the full-scale war and remains one of our most reliable partners and a leader in various formats that strengthen the protection of human lives. We thank the Danish people and government for their unwavering support and concrete decisions that help us stand strong.
🇺🇦 🇩🇰
EventFlow42 retweeted
Trump hat schon lange die Seiten gewechselt
Auf Phoenix heute morgen: in Abu Dhabi zünden Putin und Trump eine weitete Nebeltonne.
🇺🇦
m.youtube.com/watch?v=X_043F…
EventFlow42 retweeted
We already have a European security architecture in place.
This includes international agreements under which Russia has undertaken obligations, including with regard to sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The problem is that Russia is not respecting these agreements.
All our focus should be on ensuring that Russia actually fulfils the obligations it has already undertaken.
My press remarks at the @G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting ↓
EventFlow42 retweeted
... to all those who speak of a "russian zombie economy" or "magical ability to raise money": russia is increasingly transiting to pure monetary financing. there is only one outcome of this policy: inflation.
🇷🇺 Putin’s madness is destroying Russia.
Nearly 500,000 Russians estimated killed.
Russia’s 2026 deficit is at 3.2% of GDP, double the original target.
After burning through over half his fund’s liquid reserves, Putin is targeting $40bn in pension savings.
Defence and debt interest now consume nearly half of federal spending
He is borrowing at 14% interest, destroying Russia’s future fiscal capacity.
Russia is becoming a country that makes weapons and sells oil.
Hundreds of thousands of young people have fled, and thousands more soldiers die every month.
His imperial ambitions are killing Russia and its future.
