FEX Global

STATE MATTERS. WEEK FOUR. Less than 80 days till voting. 75 to be exact. 50 days to caretaker. Latest poll still: 🔵 L-NP 27% 🔴 ALP 25% 🟠 ONP 23% 🟢 GRN 12% Resolve, 9–15 Aug. Conversations this week: 💻 WORK FROM HOME A major election promise has stalled. Victoria’s Upper House voted to defer Labor’s proposed right-to-work-from-home laws, making them unlikely to pass before the election. Labor says the legislation would protect flexibility for workers. The Coalition and crossbenchers backed further scrutiny, while business groups have raised concerns about costs and complexity. It now looks increasingly likely that voters will decide the issue before Parliament does. 🕳️ ROADS A new Auditor-General report found 48% of Victoria’s state-road network was in poor or very poor condition in 2024, up from 39% in 2021. The Department of Transport and Planning estimated it would require more than $3bn a year to maintain existing pavement conditions and replace ageing assets. That puts road maintenance firmly back into the election debate, particularly across regional Victoria. 🚇 SUBURBAN RAIL LOOP The SRL reached a major physical milestone: tunnelling has begun. The first tunnel boring machine started moving from Burwood towards Glen Waverley. Politically, the divide remains clear: Labor is continuing the project while seeking savings; the Coalition wants it paused and reviewed; One Nation wants it abolished. The election debate is now taking place while the project is literally being built underground. 🚶‍♀️MIGRATION Premier Ben Carroll pushed back against moves in Canberra to lower migration, warning that going too far could hurt Victoria’s workforce, economy and international education sector. Migration policy itself is overwhelmingly federal, but its consequences feed into state issues including housing, infrastructure, services and workforce shortages. It also remains particularly important to many One Nation voters, making a federal issue potentially relevant to how some Victorians vote in November. Closest contests (% margin): Bass 0.2% | Northcote 0.2% | Pakenham 0.4% | Mornington 0.7% | Benambra 0.9% Other seats worth watching: RIPON One Nation has now confirmed Donna Buxton as its candidate, adding another player to an already crowded regional contest. VNI West also runs directly through the electorate, making energy infrastructure, farming and regional services particularly important campaign issues. MORWELL Keep watching the Latrobe Valley. The Nationals hold Morwell, but analysts have identified it as one of the strongest potential areas for One Nation growth. Energy transition, jobs and the future of coal-fired generation remain central local issues. NORTHCOTE Labor holds Northcote by just 0.2% against the Greens. Unlike many of the marginal contests being discussed this election, this is a contest on Labor’s left rather than its right, making it an important test of whether the Greens can expand their Lower House representation. Victoria decides on 28 November. This fox is following closely each week. 🦊 Sources: Resolve Political Monitor; Victorian Auditor-General’s Office; ABC News; Victorian Government / SRL; Department of Premier and Cabinet; VEC; The Guardian. #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes26

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