The US will try to restore the status quo in the Persian Gulf. Washington believes that doing so requires ending Iran’s nuclear weapons program and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to navigation while preventing Iranian control. buff.ly/qHBOs9i

The Visegrád Four (V4)—Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia—stand at a pivotal moment in European geopolitics. Watch the joint event with New Eastern Europe to find out more. buff.ly/B86DU9T

While popularity alone does not determine competence or ethics, it is proof that Madise’s conduct as Justice Chancellor bolstered the Estonian citizenry’s trust in the office and her personally. buff.ly/v5djt57

Mikhail Mishustin, the head of Russia’s main business lobby, called the government’s planned windfall tax on metallurgical and mining firms a disguised turnover tax. This means that instead of a one-time tax on high unexpected profits, the government will impose a tax regardless of the sectors' earnings. More in the latest #BearMarketBrief. buff.ly/MSgJCqC

The United States remains concerned by the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, feels obligated to protect the Gulf States and Israel, and believes that retreating from the region would come at a high cost to its credibility and national power. Iran’s current regime has three primary aims: remain in power, control the Strait of Hormuz as leverage over the world’s economy, and eject the US from the region to pursue control of the Gulf. More on the two countries' opposing aims in this analysis piece: buff.ly/qHBOs9i

🆕 Saudi Arabia Expands Missile Production at al-Duwadimi buff.ly/FxNpb7q

Fall is a busy season for FPRI. Keep an eye on our events page for updates on in-person and virtual events. buff.ly/aNMtcyM

🆕 Ülle Madise: Could a Lawyer Unify Estonia? by Samuel Kramer buff.ly/v5djt57

In the latest episode of #ShiftingGround, @AmyJNelsonPhD describes her decade-long process in writing her book, The Arms Control Paradox: Managing Uncertainty in an Insecure World. The project solidified following multiple treaty violations, withdrawals, and increased nuclear saber-rattling.  Amy's experience in cognitive neuroscience, where she tested behavior under conditions of uncertainty, led her to her work in political state behavior and arms control (10:50). buff.ly/nO2XyLg

In Phil Wasielewski's latest analysis, he outlines the history of geopolitics in the Persian Gulf, primarily focusing on the relationship between the United States and Iran to provide context to the present-day war. He details the beginning of the US-Iran conflict starting in 1979, the evolution of concerns over Iran's nuclear program, and where control over the Strait of Hormuz came into play. The piece emphasizes that the war is a part of an ongoing struggle to establish Iranian dominance in the region within a US-supported system or without it. Check out the full analysis for more details: buff.ly/qHBOs9i

The latest #BearMarketBrief details an executive order Donald Trump signed that contradicts the Graham Act, which codifies sanctions on Russian energy, the military, and the shadow fleet. Trump signed the order two days before the Graham Act took effect. buff.ly/MSgJCqC

In a report for the Middle East Policy Council, Mohammed Salih breaks down Iraq's fasail—Iran-backed factions—and their influence network. He explains that the fasail operate both inside and outside of Iraq, with fasail groups maintaining ties to nearly a quarter of Iraq's parliamentary representatives as well as Iran's Axis of Resistance. Read the full report here: buff.ly/yemcdsD

If you missed today's panel on Central Europe, catch the full discussion on our YouTube channel. FPRI was joined by New Eastern Europe to highlight the growing importance of the Visegrád Group countries. buff.ly/TqLCpaK

🗓️ Virtual Event | Thursday, October 29 | 10:30 AM EDT In 2022, Haiti requested an international armed force to help it deal with armed gangs. Kenya volunteered to lead a police response, and the two countries signed a mutual security agreement in 2024. By 2026, Kenya began a phased withdrawal of its forces. Join us for a panel discussion focusing on the lessons that senior decision-makers should take from Kenya's police deployment into Haiti. buff.ly/vn3Eqlo

Zimbabwe’s mineral resources make its external relationships' economic dimension particularly consequential. Yet mineral wealth alone does not translate into strategic economic value. buff.ly/A6njf5Y

In their latest commentary for the #OrbisJournal, Junyang Hu and Jiayu Lai break down the dangers of miscalculating financial de-risking. As US firms move their supply chains away from China, they detail the success of the United States in looking behind the "final-origin" claim—where the tag on an item says it is from—to factor in capacity, input sourcing, local value added, and shipping patterns. However, even if a supply chain is considered diversified, in a crisis it may become clear that critical tools, minerals, and process knowledge heavily originate from China-linked networks. buff.ly/qyOl6by

Drawing on her distinguished career spanning academia, think tanks, and government service, Dr. Tamara Cofman Wittes offers unique insights on bridging the gap between scholarship and practice, navigating Middle East policy, and the ongoing struggles facing global democracy. 🟡 Listen to the full episode of #ShiftingGround buff.ly/a3tl6oW

A factory leaving China does not mean its supply chain has escaped China, and a product shipped through a connector economy may look different in trade statistics while important upstream dependencies remain tied to Chinese suppliers. In such cases, interdependence is being redirected instead of severed, a pattern we call “triangulated interdependence.” #OrbisJournal buff.ly/qyOl6by

From the latest #BearMarketBrief - US executive order waiving sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act - Russian government reshuffle, with changes across several ministries and regions - Business leaders pushing against windfall and profit taxes buff.ly/MSgJCqC

🆕 The Geopolitics of the Persian Gulf and War with Iran by Philip Wasielewski buff.ly/qHBOs9i