What is PEM? PEM, or Point Efficiency Model, is a schedule-adjusted measure of how effectively a college football team produces and prevents points, expressed on a point-based power-rating scale. It is not simply an efficiency ranking, a box-score model, or a résumé ranking. PEM evaluates offense and defense independently, then places that performance in the context of the competition a team has faced and the résumé it has built. At its core, PEM is based on the idea that all production is not equal. Scoring production is evaluated alongside the efficiency with which it is created or prevented, rather than treating every point or possession the same. A win does not automatically mean a team played well, and a loss does not automatically mean it played poorly. The underlying performance still matters. Because PEM is expressed in points, the difference between two teams’ ratings serves as the baseline for a projected matchup margin before home-field advantage.

Every week my model, and various other models I follow, still pick SHSU and I also cannot understand why. They are one of the worst teams I’ve ever watched offensively.

I’m convinced that I could take 11 of my followers and run a better offense than SHSU does.

Florida-Georgia. Ohio State-USC. Northwestern-Oregon. PEM has Georgia by 13.7 and Ohio State by 24.1, then flips Oregon's game to Northwestern by 3.1. Eight Saturday matchups, with current PEM spreads, ATS picks and EDGE.

PEM's SEC title-game projection: Georgia vs Kentucky Georgia -9.4 The most frequent pairing in 10,000 season simulations after Week 8. Who breaks this matchup up?

Georgia: 39.1% to win SEC. Alabama: 19.0%. The full league outlook after Week 8, from PEM's 10,000 season simulations. Whose path looks better than its current rating?

SEC after Week 8: LSU: No. 9 offense, No. 1 defense. Florida: No. 6 offense, No. 71 defense. Better offense right, better defense up. Where does your team stand?

PEM's six Week 9 outright upset calls: Delaware +1.5 Sam Houston +6 New Mexico State +3 Old Dominion +2.5 Northwestern +3.5 Washington State +2.5 Biggest flip: Missouri State -6 on the line, but Sam Houston by 8.1 in PEM.

Missouri State is favored by 6. PEM has Sam Houston winning by 8.1. PEM ATS Pick: Sam Houston +6 EDGE: 14.1 Tonight, 7 PM CT. Tuesday's larger disagreement, with the model and the line picking different winners.

Kent State: 17.8 EDGE Ohio State: 17.6 Tulane: 16.7 UNLV: 16.0 The ten biggest current Week 9 gaps between PEM and the line. Sam Houston-Missouri State is the only Tuesday game here, so this board starts getting tested tonight.

Western Kentucky -1.5 on the line. Delaware by 0.9 in PEM. The model flips the winner, but barely. PEM ATS Pick: Delaware +1.5 EDGE: 2.4 Tonight, 6 PM CT. A narrow outright upset call to open Week 9.

SEC: Alabama leads on offense. LSU leads on defense. Every team's PEM offense and defense ranks after Week 8. Which unit has the best case to move up?

Kent State -10 is the line. Kent State -27.8 is PEM. That 17.8-point gap leads Week 9, just ahead of Ohio State's 17.6. All 56 games, largest to smallest EDGE.

Alabama is first in SEC in PEM. LSU and Georgia are next. The league's full power ratings after Week 8, with national ranks. Who should be higher?

Both Tuesday underdogs get the PEM outright nod: Delaware +1.5 and Sam Houston +6. New Mexico State is Wednesday's upset call. Tulane and Kent State have Friday's biggest model/line gaps. All nine Tuesday-Friday games, one board.

Week 9 starts with PEM taking both Tuesday underdogs outright: Delaware and Sam Houston. Saturday, it has Northwestern winning at Oregon and Ohio State by 24.1 at USC. The published Week 9 card: all 56 games, with lines, ATS picks and EDGE.

Two Tuesday games. PEM takes both underdogs outright. Delaware +1.5: PEM by 0.9 Sam Houston +6: PEM by 8.1 Delaware-Western Kentucky starts at 6 PM CT. Sam Houston-Missouri State follows at 7. One board with both calls.

Notre Dame: 6-1 now, 10.5-1.5 expected. CFP chance: 96.3%. The full schedule after Week 8, with results and PEM spreads for the games ahead. Miami (FL) is the toughest remaining matchup in PEM.

PEM's Conference USA title-game projection: Jacksonville State at Liberty Liberty -9.5 The most frequent pairing in 10,000 season simulations after Week 8. Who breaks this matchup up?

Liberty: 57.2% to win Conference USA. Jacksonville State: 25.6%. The full league outlook after Week 8, from PEM's 10,000 season simulations. Whose path looks better than its current rating?

Conference USA after Week 8: Liberty: No. 87 offense, No. 26 defense. FIU: No. 132 offense, No. 38 defense. Better offense right, better defense up. Where does your team stand?