L/S, thematic equities
Joined March 2025
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Reddit post $TPB
“Fre Mint 15mg now come with razor fragments
So this was a little bit of a shock to me. I’m about 3/4 of the way done with this can when I see this shiny metal piece poking out from underneath the pouch. After closer investigation it turns out to be a tip of a razor blade embedded in a pouch. What the actual fuck. I’ve already contacted turning point and they gave me a number to call in the morning.”
Faust retweeted
Did a little digging on evidence regarding $TPB domestic manufacturing. Looks like we are closer. Here are the links:
nosynelly.com/scoop/COM-ELC-…
nosynelly.com/scoop/COM-ELC-…
nosynelly.com/scoop/COM-ELC-…
nosynelly.com/scoop/COM-HVAC…
importgenius.com/suppliers/a…
importkey.com/i/sunpack-solu…
Republican candidate for Governor of California campaigning for flavored nicotine pouches.
Although no chance of winning, really shows you the significance of the category, when campaigners identify it as a topic that moves voters.
Also interesting to see $TPB’s FRE with unusually high shelf space, ALP also present. (However all unflavored)
No amount of funneled user traffic can sustainably guarantee for a shitty platform to succeed $RDDT
Guys, I’m sure it’s the real Druckenmiller, going around replying to engagement slop with Gen Z lingo
Who needs AI when you could’ve bought the UK’s #1 dining brand $GRG.L on:
- peak investment cycle
- depressed valuation
- unfounded cannibalization fears
(Took profits slightly too early 🙃)
Very interesting to see $TPB trying to replicate their Stoker’s playbook, on online shops we can already see these FRE “mega packs” gaining popularity.
- First establish an entirely new format, leaning into the value proposition offering (one pack = 100 pouches)
- Go all in on retail distribution, expand shelf space beyond traditional cans, pioneering and dominating the new category
- Lastly category familiarity, consumers become accustomed to the new format, competitors entering later have to displace an existing product rather than introduce the concept themselves
In the US market I have only seen it with Sesh (a venture backed player, not included in the PMTA fast track pilot), that copied FRE with 200 pouch refill packs.
From what I have seen in Europe the category is entirely non-existent. There are only some brands selling these over-dimensional cans, but they are not that popular.
LULA WON IN BRAZIL
Don’t know anyone else who played the Brazil election trade that well.
Bought before the crowd w/ Bolsonaro doing better than expected in the first round and sold into the euphoria regardless of outcome.
FDA announced four new voting members of the Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee:
- Kim Murray, longtime tobacco harm reduction advocate, former vape shop owner, co-founder of the Safer Nicotine Wiki, mentioned nicotine pouches positively for harm reduction
- Holger Behrsing (PhD): Respiratory toxicologist comparing cigarette smoke vs. next-gen aerosols, focuses on comparative toxicity from non-combustibles, risk-comparison oriented
- Margaret Nolan (MD): Focus on preventive medicine, chronic disease, and tobacco harm reduction, FDA explicitly groups her expertise with harm reduction
- Andrew Strasser (PhD): Traditional tobacco regulatory scientist, works on smoking behavior, biomarkers, risk perceptions, advertising effects, and low-nicotine products
The market thinks it’s positive for $TPB
Very logical dynamic, state incompetence gets outsourced to the private sector.
My pick is $SPCB
Prison overcrowding + tight budgets → house arrest has no limits + is ~4-10x cheaper, very long growth runway
Never go full retard.
When his portfolio ticked down to $7M, half of Fintwit begged him to take the money and run.
The buy and hold forever mindset poisoned so many investors.
Brazil fintech basket worked out great, the odds for Bolsonaro were widely mispriced, taking a big chunk off the table the euphoria will fade $INTR $PICS $XP
Pro business RW candidate now leads ahead of Socialist Lula (according to betting markets), really nice short/medium term setup for beaten down Brazilian equities.
I like the smaller fintech names $INTR & $PICS got bid down a lot, also the broker/exchange side $XP & $BOLSY to capture potential flows and volume.
A homebuilders / real estate bucket:
- $CYRBY homebuilder for potentially cheaper mortgages outside subsidized housing
- $MLTTY shopping malls, sensitive to rates, consumption, and property valuations
- $EZTC3 residential developer, Sao Paulo area
- $DIRR3 homebuilder for mid income and subsidized segments
- $LAVV3 high-end developer, high operating leverage to a rate cut
Also interesting $HAPVY mass market health insurer/hospital operator, will benefit if employment and payroll credit stabilize.
$SAPR11 state water company, privatization/governance option if the political map shifts.
$TTEN3 southern agribusiness (inputs, grain, biodiesel), fits a more agri-friendly policy mix.
