Here to share my own research & analysis, and to promote @FNArena. Expect to be challenged in your convictions, assuming you're sufficiently open-minded ;)

Sydney, Australia
Joined April 2011
From today's Australian Broker Call Report @FNArena : Morgans initiates coverage of payments infrastructure provider Cuscal with an Accumulate rating and $6.71 target, implying around 15% upside. The broker highlights a difficult-to-replicate market position, low customer churn and structural growth from cashless transactions and real-time payments. With more than -$200m of technology investment completed, Morgans expects growing transaction volumes to support further margin expansion. The Indue and Paymark acquisitions provide additional earnings upside, with Indue expected to deliver annual post-tax cost synergies of $15m-$20m by FY29. The broker forecasts EPS compound annual growth of around 20% over FY26-FY29. Customer concentration, acquisition integration and technology and regulatory risks are key concerns. An elevated valuation also leaves the shares vulnerable if growth disappoints, the report points out. #stockinfocus #ASX #investing $CCL
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Citi on Dexus $DXS: "The NSW Supreme Court has ordered Dexus (DXS) to pay ~$30m to APAC shareholders, with total estimated costs of ~$60m already provisioned and expensed in FY26. "While the APAC issue remains a developing headwind to the stock, the quantification of the provision and improved disclosure should be helpful to investors seeking to assess the extent of the overall loss. An appeal hearing is scheduled for 30 Nov – 2 Dec 2026, leaving residual uncertainty around the final financial outcome. "DXS trades at a ~35% discount to NTA (NTA: A$8.92, price: ~A$5.78), a level that, in our view, reflects longer-term value in the stock but it lacks a short-term catalyst, which keeps us Neutral. FY26 AFFO came in at 45cps with distributions of 37cps maintained; FY27 guidance implies lower earnings. "The balance sheet remains sound at 33.4% gearing, well within the 30–40% target range." #ASX #stockinfocus #investing #REITs
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
"As the world decided to abandon the popular AI trade, ASX-listed #uranium stocks got dragged down too. Elevated short positions can potentially trigger a short-covering rally when momentum turns." @FNArena Uranium Week: U308 Joins Sell The AI Trade fnarena.com/2026/10/27/urani…
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CLSA on $REA Group: "REA’s investor day highlighted its leading market position embedded across Australia’s property market, AI capability and monetisation opportunities, and through-cycle double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth targets. "We model the current housing market headwinds and adjust our expectations for listings volumes growth. "REA has a proven track record of resilience through the cycle, combined with operational flexibility that we believe enables margin expansion. "We lower our estimates and cut TP from A$254 to A$200; reiterate O-PF." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing
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CLSA on ResMed $RMD: "We highlight our expectations ahead of ResMed’s (RMD) 1Q27 result, where we sit in line with consensus EPS. "In our view the result should provide few (obvious) surprises, with seasonal trends relatively well known, Astral/MatrixCare/Noctrix’s impact quantified, and lingering concerns around US device growth longer dated. "Cost pressures remain a consideration, albeit we see this incorporated into RMD’s prudent FY27 GM guidance. "We view RMD’s recent re-rate as reflective of MedTech driven outperformance (post underperformance vs the wider market). "And while we do still see external thematics in part weighing on sentiment, RMD’s solid growth outlook and strong balance sheet underpin our positive view. PT rises to A$39.50 (from A$34.00), O-PF rating retained." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing
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Petra Capital on Artrya $AYA: "Artrya (AYA) has just filed its 4C and quarterly activities report for 1QFY27. The key highlight was the signing of Huntsville after quarter end, AYA’s largest customer to date and the first SAPPHIRE partner to convert to a commercial contract, an important validation of the company’s commercial strategy. "Revenues in the quarter are still modest, but encouragingly with the roll out of the reimbursement pre-authorisation workflow at Tanner in mid- Sep’26, volumes of scans have picked up materially in October. "The FDA submission for Salix Coronary Flow (SCF) has been deferred to strengthen the supporting clinical evidence by adding a reader study, however management believes this should improve the quality of the eventual filing and improve the probability of a successful FDA outcome. "The company has a strong balance sheet to support its commercial execution. We continue to see a long and attractive growth runway for AYA. "We believe near-term share price performance for AYA will be driven by additional commercial contract wins, SCP volume growth and progress toward the SCF FDA submission. "AYA remains a high conviction BUY. We currently have a $6.00/sh TP on AYA." #stockinfocus #ASX #Investing
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RBC Capital on BlueScope Steel $BSL: "Bluescope (BSL) upgraded its 1H27 EBIT guidance by ~20% citing (i) "favourable" US market conditions and (ii) "stronger than expected" Australian performance. "Earlier this month we upgraded our BSL 1H27 EBIT estimate to reflect the stronger US markets (refer 'The rising tide...just keeps on rising'), however were pleasantly surprised by the resilience of AU demand and realised margins. "We expect the strong underlying market momentum to continue through year-end, and for BSL to generate >$1bn of FCF (pre-div) this year. "We reiterate our Outperform rating ahead of the AGM (16-Nov) and 1H27 result (Feb-27)." #ASX #stockinfocus #investing
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
True..
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
"The global AI infrastructure boom is colliding with real-world constraints, forcing #NextDC to issue a shock profit warning last week." @FNArena A bit of door stop of an article, but before the pile on, I worked on this on the weekend to get it out asap! NextDC's Collision With The Real World fnarena.com/2026/10/26/nextd…
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CLSA on $ZIP Co: "Operationally, Zip’s 1Q27 was positive. US TTV growth remains ahead of CLSA forecasts, bad debts (% of TTV) are within seasonal norms, and all guidance items were reiterated. "Overshadowing this however was a US fraud event. While the A$10.1m impact represents 3% of FY27 cash Ebitda guidance, the price response suggests a loss of confidence that will likely take multiple quarters of solid delivery to restore. "Still, we do not see anything terminal or structural and highlight the significant value at less than 10x PE. "Our PT drops from A$4.49 to A$3.66 but we stay at O-PF." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing
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CLSA on Whitehaven Coal $WHC: "Whitehaven (WHC) delivered very strong production performance in 1Q27, with management flagging the benefit of supportive weather conditions, however, the standout performance was from Narrabri UG, up 60% versus VA consensus. "We expect this performance to normalise through FY27, with the longwall move planned for 3Q27. Coal prices will likely be a positive tailwind till end-3Q27, however ramping LNG supply in 2027 and 2028 is expected to drive downside risk to coal price expectations from 2H27. "We prefer Santos (STO) and Woodside Energy (WDS) for leverage to the current energy market tightness and maintain a relative Underperform rating on WHC with an unchanged A$6.30 target price." $STO $WDS #ASX #investing #stocksinfocus
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CLSA on Newmont Corp $NEM: "We continue to expect a recovery in gold prices in 2027, a positive tailwind for the sector. "Newmont (NEM) has US$2.8bn in remaining in buyback funding, which positions the stock with defensive leverage to a gold price recovery. "In NEM’s 3Q26 results, production was in line with a 3% beat of adj. Ebitda as by-products outperformed VA consensus. Investor positioning ahead of Barrick’s potential North American portfolio IPO is a risk to the view; the deal appears set for 1Q27. "We reduce our target price from A$216 to A$213 and maintain our O-PF rating. EVN is our preferred ASX gold pick, followed by NEM then NST." $EVN solana:G7iK3prSzAA4vzcJWvsLUEsdCqzR7PnMzJV61vSdFSNW #ASX #stocksinfocus #gold #Investing
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
Bitcoin (-7.3%) and Gold (-7.5%) are the two worst performing major assets so far in 2026. This is something we haven't seen before in any calendar year.
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
Too many people on X are still posting about buying when there is blood on the streets for it to actually be time to buy.
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
The world’s most accomplished tech founders and business leaders are betting hundreds of billions on AI with extraordinary conviction. Meanwhile much of the investing world thinks they’re making a massive mistake. The irony is hard to ignore. An investment industry where very few have historically managed to beat a passive index is now questioning the judgment of the people building the technology and running the businesses that will put it to work. Maybe the investors are right. Maybe the builders are. But I can’t remember a time when the stakes were this high and the two sides saw the future so differently.
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
so we are in a huge ai bubble that everyone knows about, that everyone keeps warning everyone else about, which makes investors increasingly scared that we're in a bubble, which means everyone is being cautious about investing in the bubble, because everyone knows it's a bubble, which somehow makes it the biggest bubble in history, despite everyone being fully aware that it's a bubble and constantly reminding everyone else that we're in a bubble.
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From today's Broker Call Report @FNArena : "Citi's quick response to today's announcement starts with the view that Beach Energy's -$115m farm-in to Elixir’s Energy's ((EXR)) Taroom acreage is providing a compelling medium-to-longer-term growth opportunity. "Commentary suggests the deal is done at a reasonable entry price with implied acreage valuations broadly in line with comparable equity valuations in the area. "However, Citi also continues to see multiple headwinds and expects these to weigh down on the share price nearer-term. "In addition, Citi remains reluctant to ascribe material value ahead of further appraisal success and greater clarity around commercialisation. "The latter is particularly important, commentary suggests, given remaining uncertainty surrounding the Domestic Gas Reservation Scheme. "Target of 80c remains unchanged. Sell." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
"Ampol's September quarter result fell short of market expectations, but has the subsequent share price pullback opened up an opportunity for investors?" @FNArena Ampol: More Than A Refining Disappointment fnarena.com/2026/10/22/ampol…
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CLSA on Amcor $AMC: "AMC’s Berry merger and ongoing portfolio rationalisation remain central to its updated shareholder value creation framework that targets returns of 13-18% pa post the merger (previously 10-15%). "Selling remaining non-core businesses will in part help deleverage and reintroduce a buyback in order to meet new the return targets. "However, a return to stabilised volume growth is paramount, in our view, supporting almost all potential catalysts. "We transfer coverage of Amcor from Daniel Kang to Justin Barratt. In doing so we make EPS changes of c.0-3% over FY27-29CL. Our PT moves to A$66.10 (was A$68.60.) Maintain Hold." #stockinfocus #XJO #investing
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