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我買過3位數的BTC
那時候還在日本做打工仔
我想說的是,早接觸不代表會暴富
也不代表一定是很專業
當年我認知它只是一種支付系統
等於Visa,香港的八達通之類,所以錯過了大好機會
知識,技術,人脈,資金雖然都很重要
但我覺得散戶在幣圈最重是運氣...
我只是說暴富那一下,能不能持久,可唔可以守住財富是另一種技能
我們在努力都向兩個大方向
1. 增加抓住暴富的機率
2. 增加守住財富的機率
同意嗎?
#BTC #初體驗
三日和尚 Web3Alan retweeted
🃏 #CHIPCHIP #瘋狂星期三 加密撲克真人秀 · 第九期 · 加密紅人邀請賽
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2026退圈!
我鐘意每幾年就重新開機一次
好似啲遊戲二轉三轉咁
用多左嘅人生經驗,挑戰另一個職業
2026放低投資/投機者身份二轉成為
拉伸教練
依家接受緊一個月嘅培訓
希望Pass到佢個考試可以入職🤭
辛苦賺錢,要享受金錢
最後也必須有健康的身體
終於有香港幣圈人講明白出黎。
我認自己懶,做轉發算了😂
微策略 DAT 超槓桿買 BTC 很快暴雷?
為什麼中文區好像沒有在 𝕏 分享過?可能是我錯過了?
我整理好所有底層邏輯,先來個結論:Strategy 做 DAT 不是沒有風險,而是沒有大家想像中那麼容易死掉!當你真正看懂來龍去脈之後,對整件事的理解很可能會被徹底刷新
最常見問題:如果 Bitcoin 發生黑天鵝,MicroStrategy 會不會直接爆掉?
我們先搞清楚一件事,什麼叫暴雷?
本質上就是資產負債表撐不住的流動性危機。對 @MicroStrategy 來說,只要能在債務到期前持續有足夠現金流入,公司就不會出現真正意義上的暴雷
而且它本身是有實際營運業務和穩定現金流的公司,所以 Strategy 發生暴雷的機率其實是偏低的,當然沒有人會說是零風險,如果硬要說的話,其實任何使用槓桿的機構理論上都存在風險⋯⋯
那與其只討論 Strategy 會不會爆
不如理性一點去看它的防護機制是什麼
這樣才是客觀分析啊
Strategy 現在具體有哪些防護機制?為什麼即使 BTC 價格真的大幅下跌,Strategy 也不會那麼容易被迫賣幣?
1️⃣ 目前持有約 650,000 顆 $BTC (市值約 580 億美元)這件事,和公司市值本身其實是兩個不同維度的概念
比特幣是列在資產負債表中的 Non-current Asset 非流動資產,這不等同於流動性不足,所以我其實一直不太認同那種「持有 BTC 的價值大過 Market Cap 就代表很危險」的說法,這在會計邏輯上並不成立
2️⃣ Strategy 買比特幣的主要資金來源是「可轉債 + 長年期企業債」,而不是高槓桿的短期借貸,更沒有傳統意義上的保證金追繳機制
也就是說,不管 BTC 跌到多少,都不會因為價格波動而被強制平倉,這一點和散戶開合約是完全不同的風險結構
3️⃣ 目前現金儲備約為 1.44 億美元,足以支付約 21 個月的股息,再加上主要債務最早要到 2027 年 2 月才會到期
也就是說,就算 BTC 跌破 74K 的持倉成本,公司依然有足夠現金流去支應利息與營運開支
只要不是發生極端到足以影響還債能力的狀況,理論上這些 BTC 是可以長期放著不賣的
我昨天在下方引文也提過,只要 BTC 每年年化漲幅有 1.36%,光是這個漲幅就已經足以覆蓋股息支出了
——————————
我絕對同意 「mNAV < 1 是危險訊號」這個說法是正確的,但我個人認為真正會逼到 Strategy 出現賣幣壓力,並不只是 BTC 下跌或單純 mNAV 低於 1
而是下面 4 種極端狀況(必須同時發生),單一條件(例如 BTC 暴跌)本身並不足以迫使 Strategy 拋售比特幣,這一點一定要看清楚!
❌ BTC 發生罕見但仍可接受的極端跌幅,例如 -60%,而且還必須長期橫盤 2–3 年以上
❌ 公司現金流長期轉弱,連利息都無法穩定支付
❌ 債務到期時,卻完全無法再融到新資金
❌ 市場 mNAV 長期低於 1
只要這四個條件沒有「同時」發生,就算 BTC 真的出現黑天鵝,一路急跌回到 Strategy 目前 74k 持倉成本價格,Strategy 的狀態也比較像是在撐過一段艱難時期,而不是立刻爆掉
公司本身從來沒有對外宣稱自己是零風險,它真正傳達的重點是,在風控設計之下,被迫賣幣的機率是極低的
那到底在什麼情況下才真的會賣幣?這裡可以參考 @ABMedia_Crypto CC @NEtripleO 曾經報導過 CEO Phong Le 親口說過這個條件
「一旦公司 mNAV 長期小於 1,而且外部資本來源消失,無法增發也無法借貸,賣出部分 BTC 將成為維繫公司財務的最後手段。」
這段話其實正好完全對應到上面那 4 個條件,畢竟 mNAV 是市場反映出來的結果,除了 BTC 必須跌破持倉成本之外,還必須是長期持續大幅下跌的情境,Strategy 才會真正進入風險區,而這個風險區本身仍然不等於「直接暴雷」
最後總結一下重點
✅ Strategy 最大的風險,不是 Bitcoin 單次出現黑天鵝,而是「長期資本市場與公司現金流環境惡化」,這才是真正需要盯緊的關鍵
✅ 就算 BTC 跌 60%,只要短期內沒有大額債務到期,公司依然具備生存能力
✅ Strategy 要從高風險變成真正暴雷,必須同時滿足上述 4 個極端條件
✅ 如果你相信 BTC 會歸零,那 Strategy 當然一定會完蛋
✅ 如果你只認為 BTC 是週期性回調,那 Strategy 的整個資本結構,本來就是設計成可以撐好幾年的
槓桿本身不是壞事,只要你理解機制原理,整件事就不會像你聽回來或是想像中那麼恐怖
在圈幣3個週期了,沒見過這種。
平行時空嗎?
莊家超強的
從來沒有大餅在重要位置下跌時
還有大型山寨幣會逆向行走
散戶討論度也不高
是要集合全球不能見光的錢嗎?🤔
希望能給我這些老韭菜一些機會🙏🏻
$ZEC
三日和尚 Web3Alan retweeted
Sats Terminal 今天丢出一个挺重磅的更新: $DOG 战略金库正式上线。
从现在起,只要有人在 Sats Terminal 上换符文 $DOG ,平台收的那部分手续费会 100% 全部用来回购 $DOG ,直接充进金库。
社区越活跃、交易越多,金库里的 $DOG 就越涨。
金库接下来会用来在 DEX 上补充深度,让 $DOG 的链上交易更顺、滑点更低。
后续还会定期公开金库数据,透明度拉满。
对符文生态来说这是很明确的信号:
Sats Terminal 不是短期支持 $DOG 支持符文,而且真的在把它当“长期资产”来对待。🫡
三日和尚 Web3Alan retweeted
In quantum many worlds theory, every possible outcome exists across parallel layers of reality.
Each layer represents a diff configuration of events, shaped by probability n initial conditions.
If that framework holds, then there is a layer where $DOG has already reached $1.
Its existence follows directly from the mathematics of parallel states:
if an outcome is non zero in probability space, it exists in some version of the multiverse.
The real point of the thought experiment is this:
observed reality is just one path among many potential trajectories.
Systems evolve accordin to coordination, network effects n collective behavior, factors that determine which trajectory becomes the one we measure.
In that sense, the $1 $DOG timeline is simply one of the possible solutions already present in the wider structure of the multiverse.
川普政府真的很誇張,明明宣布了恢復正常,原本說今天有90%以上的機率會結束停擺,結果最後一小時突然搞事,情況直接逆轉倒輸⋯⋯還好有看到消息,不然一覺醒來就不見了幾千美元
polymarket.com/event/what-da…
三日和尚 Web3Alan retweeted
🔥@caffeineai 是 ICP 为开拓 Crypto AI 赛道,打造的 AI Dapp 最佳实践!
而大多数人不知道的是,ICP 已经成为开发者在 #BitcoinDeFi 赛道首选的技术解决方案!
💡ICP 已经成为事实上的最佳 Bitcoin Layer2(生态 Dapp 列表见文末)
✨so,我可以聊聊 ICP 自身的技术亮点,如何在 Bitcoin 生态发挥价值:
PS:我认为 ICP 定位在「去中心化云服务」是非常强大和巧妙的(虽然提到的人不多):其抽象而出的「Chain Key 加密技术」、「子网架构」和「大容量计算存储」能力,可以做到与时俱进,让 ICP 一直站在 Crypto 创新的最前沿。
///
实话说,在 Bitcoin DeFi 领域,@OmnityNetwork 团队是将 ICP 的技术玩到的出神入化的,进而为 Bitcoin DeFi 领域贡献是2个最为关键的基础设施:
🌟符文跨链桥 Omnity hub,并且将 Runes 和 Ordinals 的索引全部上链,Fully On-chain,让整个 Bitcoin DeFi 生态自此有机会实现 100% 的去中心化的 Dapp
🌟Bitcoin 的智能合约执行层 REE:在资产不离开比特币主网的情况下(去中心化+安全),让 Bitcoin 主网具备强大的智能合约能力。
咱们就以这两个项目为例,来聊 ICP 的技术特性对应的核心应用场景⬇️(反向 Gas 费很重要但
///
一、ICP 的多子网架构👉具备和任意区块链进行交互和数据同步的能力
ICP 并未采用传统区块链的 「单链」或 「分片」的设计,而是通过「多子网架构」将整个网络拆分为多个独立且并行运行的 「子网/Subnet」,每个子网本质上是一条独立的区块链,共同构成 ICP 去中心化计算网络。
💡为什么 ICP 技术能首先在 Bitcoin 生态被关注?
就在于 ICP 官方 @dfinity 基金会为了做 ckBTC 时部署开发的 Bitcoin 子网,其每个节点均运行 Bitcoin 全节点,与 Bitcoin 网络通过 P2P 协议直连,为 Omnity 提供实时、可信的 Bitcoin 数据交互能力。
通过 ICP Bitcoin 子网,直接读取 Bitcoin 主网的 UTXO 集合、区块数据、Memepool 交易状态,无需依赖第三方 RPC 服务,确保数据真实性与实时性。
比如,智能合约层 REE 协议,就可以在执行交易前,实时的、毫秒级的验证用户输入的 UTXO 是否已被花费(避免双花)、资产类型是否匹配(如 Runes 符文数量),确保交易前置条件合法
PS:现在也还有 ETH 子网、SOL 子网,这就是 ICP 适合做跨链的关键所在。
🚀@robin_liquidium 凭借这点,让@LiquidiumFi 从 BTC 生态的借贷,已经走向了全链、跨链的借贷服务。
///
二、Chain-Key 技术 👉实现最安全的私钥管理与签名方案
ICP 的 Chain Key 子网基于门限签名(TSS)和多方计算(MPC)技术,让 Omnity 可以实现去中心化资产的安全持有、控制乃至交易:
👍ICP 的智能合约可以安全的持有 Bitcoin 资产私钥
私钥以碎片的形式存储在 Chain Key 子网的 31 个迭代节点中,无完整私钥存在,且每小时更新一次碎片,彻底规避私钥泄露风险。
👍支持 Bitcoin 原生签名
ICP 智能合约可通过 Chain Key 子网,对 Bitcoin 交易(含 PSBT 部分签名交易)进行 ECDSA 和 Schnorr 两种原生签名,满足 Bitcoin 主网交易的签名规范,无需依赖链下签名服务。
这里就得提到基于 ICP 和 REE构建的 @RichSwap_REE ,是我认为 Bitcoin 主网上体验最好、去中心化程度最高的 AMM DEX。
AMM DEX 的核心是流动性池,而 Bitcoin 主网的 UTXO 模型决定了池内资产需绑定特定私钥 —— 传统方案中,私钥要么由项目方集中保管(中心化风险),要么由多签节点控制(私钥碎片仍有泄露可能)。
RichSwap 借助 REE 协议的私钥管理能力,实现了 “资产归链上所有,风险零暴露”。感兴趣的看这个图吧⬇️
///
三、ICP 大容量链上存储和计算能力👉 Fully On-Chain 能力
ICP 号称去中心化的 AWS,所以存储和计算资源可谓是量大管饱,这就可以把很多链下计算完全上链。
BTC 生态新资产大多依赖链下索引(其他生态也经常这样),@OmnityNetwork 将 Bitcoin 生态 2大核心资产标准的索引全部上链,即 Ordinals Indexer(NFT) 和 Runes Indexer(FT),
链上计算,并且长期存储两大索引的全量交易数据,为后续 BTCFi 应用(如 Runes 借贷、NFT 碎片化)提供数据支持。
这才让 Bitcoin 生态构建真正去中心化应用成为了可能。
///
至此,Bitcoin 生态才在 2025年展示出了百花齐放的样子:
👉OdinFun:最大的比特币计价的 DEX @Odin_GodOfRunes ,日交易高峰100个BTC,日常10+ BTC :toprunes.org/markets
👉Omnity Hub:最大的比特币生态跨链桥 @OmnityNetwork ,TVL 已经6 亿美金
👉Liuidium:最大的 Bitcoin 生态借贷产品@LiquidiumWTF
👉REE:Bitcoin 的智能合约执行层(omnity.network/ree),比特币生态最重要的基建,目前 TVL 170个BTC,将近 2000w。
数据来源:runescan.net/
👉Richswap:100% 去中心化的 Bitcoin 主网 AMM DEX @RichSwap_REE
👉 构建在 ICP 上的 Pump 式发射台和DEX:@tyche_run 和 @FomowellX
///
写太多了,就此打住。
欢迎交流
对 Bitcoin 生态感兴趣的开发者和创业者,强推 ICP + REE 技术栈开发产品👉最完美的 Bitcoin 扩展的技术解决方案
可以看这个开发者网站⬇️
bitcoindefi.dev/
山寨季来了
不过注意主线,不要圈内PVP
最强的标的是 $ICP
AI应用、AI云、隐私、每一个都是可落地可用
后续期待大的APP去上面开发东西
有能力的速度去上面做应用
币圈抖音之类都可以做起来
終於拿回資產了! 謝謝@cecilia_hsueh的帶領
12:42分提幣 12:48分到帳!!
真的 @MEXCZH 會越來越好
說實話現在不敢放太多u進去做交易
希望慢慢建立信心再拿你們的月度盈利冠軍
感謝有幫忙發聲的所有人
尤其是第一時間提醒我通道的@EvaHung1223
感謝 @TheWhiteWhaleV2 的革命為我們帶來希望的種子
"Not approved yet... and again, without any explanation.
No reason, no detailed process.
Is it another indefinite wait...?"
暫未通過…然後又是沒有任何解釋
沒有原因,沒有過程的詳細
又是無限期的等待嗎….?
@cecilia_hsueh @MEXCZH @DerrickYeo61993 @Teddy_MEXC @EvaHung1223
UID:04714448
這裡有一位曾經拿過你們月度交易冠軍的用戶被風控200多天了
Here is a user who was once your monthly trading champion and has been under risk control for over 200 days.
Replying to @WhiteWhaleLabs @TheWhiteWhaleV2
Thank you for the suggestions, I personally agree with all of them and will do my best to drive change and give everyone a proper answer.
As I mentioned on our call, I’m committed to improving this industry together.
Regarding the 100s users you mentioned, could you share a way for me to get in touch with them? I’d like to help resolve their issues proactively.
三日和尚 Web3Alan retweeted
MEXC Update
On October 20th, I had a one-hour call with @cecilia_hsueh, who has publicly taken on the role of trying to resolve the @MEXC_Official issue.
I started the call with my camera on - something that apparently surprised her. I told her I had nothing to hide. I prefer to look people in the eye.
From the start, she used the classic corporate playbook.
She claimed she had “undeniable proof” I broke the rules - meaning, by MEXC’s own terms, the funds should be forfeited (a polite way of saying they get to keep them). She said she was happy to show this evidence to a third party…but that doing so would require doxxing me, and she “knew I wouldn’t want that.”
Then came the carrot:
She said MEXC “wants to resolve it” and “sees a path to unlocking the funds.”
But it quickly became clear that what they really wanted was for me to publicly admit I broke the rules - to validate their actions with my own words.
I asked her to tell me more about the supposed “evidence.”
She said back in April, they had records of two orders executed within the same second - which they deemed as not possible from a manual process.
Wait…April? When I was still testing strategies - and losing money?
Yet they didn’t freeze my account until the fall, after I made $5M in profit in 90 days?
I took a breath and told her very sincerely:
“I don’t know if you’re a parent. But I have two young daughters. And on all of the love I have for them I can promise you that I did not do what you're saying I did.
I used no bots, no automation. Every single trade was manual.”
I explained that VPN lag could easily explain two trades executing a single second on their side - doesn't mean they were sent from the same second on my side. She acknowledged the point but didn’t concede. We reached an impasse.
Still, she indicated MEXC was “open” to releasing the funds - if I helped them control the narrative.
It was obvious: they want me to say, “I broke the rules, but MEXC was nice enough to return the money.”
I told her I’d only ever speak the truth.
If the matter was resolved, I’d gladly make a public statement - but it would be based in reality, not propaganda. I can and do see how it's possible that my unique - manual - trading strategy, combined with laggy VPN internet traffic could potentially trip a risk review. I used to run a web2 empire - I know all sorts of things can trigger risk control and that sometimes innocent people get caught in the crossfire. What matters is how quickly the business resolves it.
I've never had an issue with being put under review. Taking months to even tell me what I'm accused of and finding me guilty on little more than mere suspicion? That I take issue with.
We did agree on one thing: their old “risk control” system - total radio silence, zero transparency, and endless review extensions - is broken. She even admitted that much.
We closed on a surprisingly cordial note. She complimented my understanding of the industry and even suggested I might make a good CEO candidate for one of MEXC’s new initiatives. I laughed and told her I’d never want to be a CEO again - but I’d gladly donate my time as an unpaid advisor to help MEXC fix their broken systems and improve customer experience…if their intent to improve was real.
The call ended with her promising follow-up in the next couple of days.
That was a week ago Monday. It’s now over 10 days later and still no movement on this issue.
Let me be clear: I never expected much.
Cecilia is new to the organization - perhaps even sincere - but ultimately captured by MEXC’s internal narrative: that they are the victims, and that once they define you as “in violation,” they’re justified in keeping your funds.
But here’s the part they probably didn’t mean to reveal - this public pressure has hurt them.
But my voice is not for sale.
Not for profit.
Not for peace.
Not for anyone.
They’ll just have to live with that.
🫡 From the depths —
The White Whale 🐋
三日和尚 Web3Alan retweeted
Yesterday’s HK $DOG ARMY Meetup 🧡
Last night in Hong Kong, our $DOG ARMY got together to share ideas and different perspectives on how we can build a stronger community across Asia — one that truly connects people and helps our voice grow.
Why does this matter so much?
At the last Hong Kong @btc_summit, I noticed something important ;
across Asia, including Mainland China, more than half the people had never even heard of $DOG (Bitcoin).
It makes sense to me, $DOG has never paid any KOLs, CEXs, or had an official team behind it.
Everything we’ve done so far has been 100% organic.
That also means it’s been harder for our voice to spread, and information travels slower in this part of the world.
Still, I wanna shout out to the Legends again @und3rdog, @DogOfBitcoin, and @janbtc. because of their effort, the $DOG voice finally got its first real moment to shine in Asia during the Bitcoin Summit. 🧡
Back to last night :
The meetup gave us a clearer vision of what we can build next:
forming a $DOG Asia page / or a small team that can act as a bridge ; helping members from different regions to connect, communicate, and grow together.
Beyond translations, we’re also thinking about launching educational projects, community content, creative challenges, and more ways to get everyone in Asia involved.
To be honest, nothing’s confirmed yet ; I don’t want to make promises too early.
But I truly hope we all in Hong Kong can play our part;
not only by uniting the Asian $DOG community,
but also by breaking language barriers and eventually creating an impactful $DOG Asia Platform.
As for the T-shirt below, I printed “$DOG Millionaires Club”,
because that’s the core spirit of our tg group @DogMillionairesClub 💬
“This is the $DOG Family — uniting Asia, Europe, the US, and all regions together.
Let’s bridge the communities and send $DOG to the moon together.” 🫡
Right now, the group has around 460 members,
and I’ve started to see more and more people from Japan, Korea, and the Philippines posting and sharing content ;
some even reposting my English translations.
That gave me even more motivation to keep building a platform that connects Asia with the Western world.
Again. Cultural and language gaps are real.
If we want to spread our message more efficiently,
we’ll need better tools, smarter solutions, and strong teamwork to make it happen.
Everything now is still in the early planning stage,
but once we have something concrete, I’ll definitely share it here and in the group.
Lastly, I want to thank the $DOG FAM who last night 🇭🇰 @alalala898989, @JcBtcHodler, @Fish_Yeung, and @chantaiman_eth.
The conversations we had gave me so much more clarity and hope for what’s next.
Please give us a little more time, we wanna think more carefully about how to move forward in the best way possible.
$DOG GO TO THE MOON !! 🚀🌕
What a great night with $DOG ARMY @JOHNRICK89XX @JcBtcHodler @chantaiman_eth @FishYeung.
Figured out something worth a try until we land on the moon.
三日和尚 Web3Alan retweeted
What a great night with $DOG ARMY @JOHNRICK89XX @JcBtcHodler @chantaiman_eth @FishYeung.
Figured out something worth a try until we land on the moon.
三日和尚 Web3Alan retweeted
$DOG is in listing conversations with @coinbase 🧵
Coinbase's listing team has given me permission to share that they have received our $DOG spot listing application, that I have a direct communication channel with their listing team to review $DOG, and that we are being treated fairly in their new "Blue Carpet" listing process
I greatly respect the confidentiality of my listing conversations with all exchanges which means I do not share with the $DOG Army that there even is a conversation unless I am told I am able to
I make zero promises that any listing conversation will lead to a listing and have never before until now shared that a specific conversation even exists so that people do not get their hopes up
To be extremely clear a conversation does not mean a listing will happen and it just means that an exchange's listing team is taking the time to evaluate $DOG and provide feedback
Ultimately it is up to every exchange to decide for themselves if they will list $DOG or not
All I can do is represent the $DOG Army and the Free & Fair Movement to the best of my ability and try to provide exchanges with all of the technical resources necessary to integrate with Runes
In the case of Coinbase I have been one of their users for over 11 years and probably wouldn't be in crypto today had they not made it so easy for me to get onboarded to Bitcoin back then
Coinbase's leadership team has made their intention to eradicate the practice of exchanges charging listing fees very clear
The $DOG Army is equally committed to bringing an end to this exploitative business model that ultimately enriches insiders at the expense of retail and strongly aligns with the vision for more fair and transparent listing processes at all exchanges
As the most fairly launched memecoin ever that airdropped 100% of its supply for free in a volunteer initiative with no team allocation or treasury the $DOG Army understands better than any community the difficulty of getting CEX listings without paying off all of the gatekeepers who expect their cut
I strongly believe that Coinbase is one of the good guys in all of this so please be respectful to them and their employees as they are treating me with respect








































