Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
François Rochon, who achieved a 15.1% annual CAGR over 30 years, on what makes a great investment:
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
Howard Marks, a world-famous contrarian investor and founder of Oaktree Capital Management, on how to invest like the best:
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
Warren Buffett, the greatest investor alive, on what makes a great investor:
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
Reverse DCF on $APP at today's price scares me.
15% FCF growth every year for ten years. That's the bar the market has set.
AppLovin has done 45.6% since 2018, and consensus says 29% through 2028.
For a business converting revenue to cash like this one, 15% for a decade is close to dirt cheap.
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
Mark Leonard, who was CEO of $CSU for 30 years and arguably one of the greatest capital allocators to roam the world, says this makes an excellent capital allocator:
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
$UBER trailing free cash flow is $10bn.
I model it at $8.2bn. Strip out stock comp and the number drops a fifth.
Run that through a reverse DCF at $71.67, with a 12% discount rate and 3% terminal growth, and the market is asking for 10% FCF growth every year for a decade.
Bookings haven't grown below 20% in four quarters.
I haircut the cash flow by 20%, and it's still priced for a business that decelerates by half.
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
Let's talk about your sister.
She pulls $45,000 a month on OnlyFans.
Her entire marketing department? $RDDT.
Forty subreddits. Teaser gifs. Every single morning.
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
J.P Morgan's top picks right now:
Alphabet $GOOG
Arista $ANET
AT&T $T
AutoZone, Inc. $AZO
Avery Dennison $AVY
Boeing Company $BA
Broadcom Inc $AVGO
Caterpillar Inc. $CAT
Celsius Holdings $CELH
Charles Schwab $SCHW
Citigroup Inc. $C
Disney $DIS
Eli Lilly & Company $LLY
KLA Corporation $KLAC
Palo Alto Networks $PANW
Roku $ROKU
Salesforce Inc $CRM
Starbucks $SBUX
Synopsys Inc $SNPS
Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO
TransUnion $TRU
Visa Inc. $V
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
I wouldn't touch $SNAP even if it grew 40%+
No moat business.
Easiest to replace, least to be missed.
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
Peter Lynch has a rule that would get most economists fired.
"If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic forecasts, you've wasted 10 minutes."
He's beaten the market for decades by ignoring the thing everyone else obsesses over.
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing."
— Warren Buffett
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
$ADBE reverse DCF at $240.
Implied FCF growth for the next decade: 0%.
Not 5%. Not 2%.
Zero.
On $8.3B of SBC-adjusted free cash flow.
The market has given up on Adobe completely.
That's not analysis.
That's capitulation.
And capitulation creates opportunities.
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
$ASML is destroying shareholder value through one of the worst-executed buyback programs in large-cap history.
Over five consecutive trading days, management spent roughly €125M per day buying back shares at weighted average prices between €1,145 and €1,217.
This is not capital return. This is capital destruction.
1. Buybacks were executed near cycle-peak valuations.
2. €125M per day was removed from the balance sheet with zero margin of safety.
At these prices, the buyback has no meaningful per-share value accretion.
Buybacks only create value when shares are undervalued or at least reasonably priced. Paying peak multiples for your own stock is the same as overpaying for an acquisition, except this time you are acquiring yourself.
This raises serious questions about capital allocation discipline:
1. Why rush buybacks at elevated prices instead of preserving flexibility?
2. Why not slow the program when valuation risk is clearly asymmetric?
3. What incentive structure pushes management to deploy capital this aggressively, regardless of price?
As a shareholder, this is infuriating.
Cash that could protect the balance sheet, fund future innovation, or be returned at better prices is being burned to support short-term optics.
This is not prudent execution.
This is management prioritizing activity over value creation.
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
Fair Isaac isn't cheap right now...
The market currently has ~25% YoY FCF growth priced in.
Over the last 10 years, FICO has had an FCF CAGR of 23%. I think roughly 20% is an appropriate growth projection for FICO.
What do you think?
$FICO
Yorrin van der Graaf retweeted
Novo Nordisk has one hell of a pipeline.
How can one be bearish on this?
I'll say it out loud for the ones in the back.
2026 will be Novo's year.
$NVO






















