Can data beat Buy & Hold? ₿ Bitcoin quantitative research • Backtests • Systematic strategies.

Joined September 2026
If you already made my previous strategies go viral, you're gonna LOVE this one. My new strategy outperformed simply holding bitcoin:native by more than 10x. No leverage. No shorts. Spot only.
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A public company thought it owned 817.6 BTC. It couldn't withdraw a single one. Datavault AI says the coins have been stuck in an exchange wallet since June, despite repeated withdrawal requests. It's now restating four quarters of financials. Shares fell 49.6% in a day. Owning $BTC and controlling $BTC are not the same thing. Learn how custody works before you size up. Bookmark this before you leave coins on an exchange.
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Uptober didn't show up. Again. bitcoin:native October returns (monthly open to close): 2019: +10.3% 2020: +28.0% 2021: +39.9% 2022: +5.5% 2023: +28.5% 2024: +11.0% 2025: -3.9% 2026 so far: -2.7% Six green Octobers, then two red ones. Seasonality is a tendency, not a promise. And one weak month doesn't tell you much about the next twelve. Do you still look at monthly seasonality? Bookmark this and check it again on November 1.
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Bitcoin search interest is at a five-year low. Finally, the whole internet reacts to Bitcoin the way my group chat does. Repost it for everyone who's been orange-pilling an empty room. Follow for the next one.
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Inflation erodes savings, agreed. The honest follow-up for the kids: Bitcoin swaps a slow, steady loss for big swings. What's the plan so they don't sell at the bottom?
Imagine telling your children: "I worked hard my entire life. I saved money. I did everything right. But the government kept creating more money, so everything became more expensive and my savings lost value." And then imagine telling them this was considered a perfectly normal monetary system.
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On day 920 after the halving, $BTC is +24%, against +94% (2020), +449% (2016) and +1,726% (2012) at the same point. Each cycle has been smaller. Follow for more cycle charts.
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Just 5 mining pools now control 78% of $BTC hashrate. The top 3 alone: 64%. Foundry USA by itself: 27%. Bitcoin is decentralized, but block production is far more concentrated than most think. Save this one for later.
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If you die tomorrow, can your family recover your bitcoin? With a bank, there's paperwork and heirs. With self-custody, if nobody knows the coins exist or how to access them, they're gone for good. That's the cost of not depending on anyone. Thread 🧵
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I'd assume the most important part: the instructions must be usable by someone who knows nothing about Bitcoin. A plain-language guide: what you hold, where each piece is, which wallet restores it, and what NOT to do (never type the seed into a website). And test the restore first with a small amount.
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Summary: 1. Someone you trust knows the coins exist and where to look. 2. No single person besides you has everything needed to move the funds. 3. The instructions are clear and have been tested. 4. Review it once a year. How did you solve it? I'm curious what setups people use.
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Leverage is great. You get to experience a whole bear market in four minutes. If this was you, a repost helps the next guy step away from the 50x button.
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A $1 crypto card with 8% cashback, a $100,000 limit and no KYC. It's a fake site using Trust Wallet's brand. Trust Wallet's security team confirmed it's not theirs. The trap isn't the $1. It's the step where you connect your wallet and sign an approval. That can let a contract move your tokens. No seed phrase needed. 3 habits: • Only use the official app and site • Use a separate wallet for connecting to sites • Review and revoke old token approvals Which one do you actually do? A repost might keep someone from signing the wrong thing.
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$176M went into US spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday. Two funds took all of it. IBIT: +$151.5M FBTC: +$24.5M The other 10 funds: zero. Second inflow day in a row, right before the Fed. But since Oct 9, daily flows have swung from -$635.6M to +$526.7M. One day of $BTc ETF flows tells you shares were created. Not who bought or why. Do you track flows daily or weekly? Bookmark this and compare it with next week's flows.
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Fed + ECB + BoJ balance sheets in USD vs $BTC since 2014; Michael Howell calls $70K the critical level. Repost if useful.
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Unmoved isn't the same as convicted. Lost keys and cold custodian wallets also sit still. What does the series look like with estimated lost supply stripped out? That's the number that would say something about holders.
JUST IN: 37.4% of the total Bitcoin supply remains unmoved for 4+ years 👀 Conviction is building. HODL ✊
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Motivation doesn't run your $BTC strategy. Rules do. On a 'great day' you follow them. On a bad day you follow them too. That's the whole point of writing them down. What's your rule for today?
Good morning. Today is going to be a great day. Let’s get after it relentlessly.
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"Anyone can create a cryptocurrency." True. Anyone can also print a stock certificate. The question isn't who can copy the code. It's who can copy 15+ years of uptime, liquidity and a supply nobody has changed. That part is checkable. Go check it. $BTC
Saying there’s no reason to buy Bitcoin because anyone can create a cryptocurrency is like saying there’s no reason to learn English because anyone can invent a language.
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