A doctor doing way too many things.

Joined July 2023
Fortune Fables retweeted
Follow up from today’s post I looked into the group whose video ad is running in the Root post, and what I found is concerning. The ad is titled "EXPOSED: Double Billing." Its disclaimer reads "Paid for by Patients for Safe and Affordable Health Insurance." It is a limited liability company. The only place its legal name appears is the website's privacy policy. There is no named executive director, no board, no staff, no spokesperson, and no press release. Its listed address is 712 H Street NE, Suite 1403, in Washington, DC. That address belongs to a FedEx and UPS shipping store. "Suite 1403" is a mailbox. Its website launched in January 2025. The files behind it are hosted on a WordPress network that also hosts campaign pages for Republican candidates. Most of its pages were written by an account called "Web Ops," not by anyone at the group. This isn't a patient organization that hired a web designer. It's a political vendor's product with a patient-sounding name on the front. In 18 months, its campaigns have covered oncology drug vials, out-of-network doctors, upcoding, hospital facility fees, a state-specific attack on a hospital system in Indiana, and now modifier 25. Every single one targets a doctor or a hospital. Not one targets an insurer. Not one mentions prior authorization, claim denials, or the profits of the companies that sit between patients and their care. Look at who it lets speak. Its "facts" page cites AHIP, the insurance industry's trade association. Its billing campaign is built on a Blue Cross Blue Shield Association report. Its surprise-billing pages repeat the insurer line that arbitration costs too much and doctors win too often. The op-eds it promotes are written by a former Florida Blue executive, a former chief medical officer of Regence Blue Cross, and a former chief medical officer of AmeriHealth Caritas. Not one practicing physician. Not one patient. A group that says it speaks for patients, has no patients, no leaders, and no address, and only ever points in one direction is suspicious at best. Notice the timing. The comment period closed September 14. More than 150 medical organizations told CMS to withdraw this proposal. CMS tried the same cut in 2019 and pulled it. The final rule is due within weeks. Nine influencers and a video ad showed up in exactly that window, with the same talking points, thanking the administration for a rule it hasn't finalized yet. That is a pressure campaign not a public awareness campaign. Why would an insurer care about a Medicare rule? Commercial plans already fight physicians over modifier 25 claims. Physicians push back because Medicare, the benchmark, pays in full. If CMS cuts it, every commercial contract in the country follows, and the cut stops being something a doctor can appeal. The savings won’t ever go to seniors. They will go to the plans and their shareholders. Who funds this and why are we hearing from a mailbox instead of a person? If you want to argue that Medicare should pay less for same-day services, make that argument. Put your name on it. Publish your data. Tell us who you work for. Defend it in the comment period and in the open. What you shouldn't do is fund a video from a mailbox, pay nine accounts to run the same script, and call it a grassroots movement. Patients do deserve transparency. That starts with knowing who is talking to them.
Between October 5 and October 7, nine social media influencers all posted the same Medicare argument about a relatively unknown coding modifier physicians use. A content creator, a commentary account, a MAGA account that rescues animals, a radio host, an Outkick writer, a comedian, a newsletter guy, a Townhall columnist, and a RedState columnist who used to carry the nuclear football all suddenly became experts in the minutia of healthcare billing. They don’t regularly discuss Medicare and physician coding in their posts. Their posts reach hundreds of thousands to millions of followers depending on the account. One was labeled “paid partnership”. Modifier 25 is not a scam. It’s not a loophole. It’s not some get rich scheme. Modifier 25 allows a doctor to indicate that a second, separately payable procedure was performed at the same time as another visit. What does that mean in real terms? It means an orthopedic surgeon had you on their schedule for “knee pain”. After careful examination and discussion (the clinic visit), they recognize that you would best be served with an injection (the procedure) to help with the symptoms. They then provide the injection and attach a 25 modifier to indicate that this is a separately identifiable treatment from the visit and requires its own payment for those services. CMS wants to pay the highest-priced service in full and cut every other same-day service by 50%. It is unclear how they came up with 50% and the agency even stated that they aren’t sure there is overlap in work for the two separate codes, but stated the overlap is “likely”. I’ve been clear in my opposition and why. When a plumber comes out to your house because your water supplier sent you a note that you might have a leak and then the plumber finds that leak, do they charge you half price for fixing the leak? Our own government doesn’t even follow these rules. If you go to the post office and have two packages to send to the same address, do they charge you half price for the second box since it is going to the same address? What will happen? First, we’ve determined that 80% of the impact of the -25 modifier will be on independent, private practicing doctors. We’ve created a new tax on independent physicians, pushing them further into consolidation. When doctors become employed, costs go up dramatically leading to increased premiums and increased out of pocket costs. The other impact will be on patient care. Doctors will refuse to be paid half for the same work. They will tell patients to come back on another day for the procedure. That’s another copay. That’s another day finding help with children or loved ones. That’s reduced productivity while waiting for needed treatment. And at the end of the day, the cost to the payer and patient will end up being worse as doctors consolidate.
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New SEC risk category
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Every happy business is alike: pricing power and profitable. Every unhappy business is unhappy in its own unique way
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Picking up the lessons of History again, always glean something new. From the first chapter: war is its own discipline, and requires its own study
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Zuckerberg straight up taking down his enemies in one fell swoop like Michael Corleone at the end of Godfather
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Final Boss of AI?
$AAPL is the best company in the world. They let others fight to see what actually works. Then they copy it and make it better. They are NEVER first. This is how they always win. - Personal computers (1977) - IBM to Apple II - Graphical computers (1984) - Xerox to Macintosh - MP3 players (2001) - Diamond Rio to iPod - Digital music stores (2003) - Napster to iTunes - Smartphones (2007) - Blackberry, Nokia to iPhone - App marketplaces (2008) - various mobile stores to App Store - Tablets (2010) - Microsoft Tablet to iPad - Video calling (2010) - Skype to FaceTime - Voice (2011) - GPS to Siri - Cloud storage (2011) - Dropbox to iCloud - Fingerprint (2013) - Motorola Atrix to TouchID - Smartwatches (2015) - Samsung Galaxy Gear to Apple Watch - Mobile payments (2014) - PayPal to Apple Pay - Wireless earbuds (2016) - bluetooth earbuds existed for years to AirPods - Smart speakers (2018) - Amazon Alexa to HomePod - Item trackers (2021) - Tile to AirTags - High-end ARM computers (2020) - ARM chips to Apple Silicon Macs - Buy-now-pay-later (2023) - Affirm to Apple Pay Later - Mixed reality VR (2024) - Oculus Meta to Apple Vision Pro - Generative Intelligence (2024) - OpenAI to Apple Intelligence
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Elon Musk was concerned that if he didn’t study business, he’d be forced to work for someone who did. So many doctors walked into this trap
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Denial is a helluva drug
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Fortune Fables retweeted
Let’s talk about physician payment for a minute and why that AMA graph just doesn’t feel like it tells the whole story. Here’s why… Let’s start with how the AMA calculates its graphic. They work on the specified update, which is what Congress set out to do that year… but that’s only half the story Each year, the conversion factor (CF) is recalculated by multiplying the prior year CF by the statutory update by the budget-neutrality adjustment. When you only go on the statutory update, you miss a big potential gain or loss due to budget neutrality. @anish_koka has explained why budget neutrality has doomed the physician fee schedule permanently. The AMA has provided Congress with years of bad data that ignores the massive financial trouble that budget neutrality has caused and created a far rosier picture. When you look at the AMA graph, it appears doctors have seen a 10% increase since 2000. The 2000 CF was $36.6137. The 2027 proposed CF is $32.84. That’s over 10% in the negative direction. We need truth in advertising. I begged the specialty societies and the AMA to fix their graphs. I spent 3 years asking for it. No one listened. So, I did what I had to do and I pulled the data together. Below is the work product of that venture and a graph that I think (visually) shows the much more striking reason why doctors are leaving medicine or selling their practices. The first graph looks at things from the perspective of the 2000 CF. If we just compare how much doctors and hospitals are paid, we see that physician pay via CF has declined 10.3% while hospital pay has increased 97% and inflation (MEI) has increased 71%. That seems pretty stark but I think the second graph uses the same numbers but in a more effective way. The second graph assumes that MEI is the baseline. In other words, what if doctors just got what they were paid in 2000, updated for the cost of inflation. Now we see what really has happened. Doctors are 81.3% behind inflation while hospitals are 26.8% above inflation. No wonder hospitals are buyers and doctors are sellers in this market. It’s time for truth in advertising. It’s time Congress and CMS heard the real numbers. 81% behind inflation over 25 years and even worse when compared to HOPDs. Our government created this crisis and they will need to understand the issues they created to get us out. Follow us at @IndeMedAction as we shine the light on issues critical to independent physicians.
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Banger
I have read approximately 3,000 10-Ks in my life. I have read my wife’s emotional state correctly maybe 11 times. This is troubling because the skills should transfer. Both require you to look past the headline. Both require you to read the footnotes. Both require you to notice what was said last quarter that is not being said this quarter. I can spot a goodwill impairment from 40 pages away. I cannot spot that my wife has been quietly furious since Tuesday. In a 10-K I notice when management changes the word “challenging” to “dynamic” and I correctly interpret this as a warning. In my marriage my wife changed the word “fine” to “fine.” and I did not notice the period. The period was the entire disclosure. I missed it. I read a footnote last week in a packaging company’s annual report that disclosed a related-party transaction worth $400,000 and I caught it in 90 seconds. My wife told me three times this month that she was tired and I interpreted this as “tired” when in fact it was a Level 3 disclosure requiring immediate management response. I have a system for 10-Ks. I read the MD&A first, then the risk factors, then the cash flow statement, then the notes. I have no system for my wife. She is a company that does not file. She reports continuously and without warning and the format changes every quarter. Her risk factors are not enumerated. Her MD&A is delivered through sighs of varying length and I have not yet developed the ear. Last week she said “do whatever you want” and I did whatever I wanted and it turns out the correct interpretation of “do whatever you want” was “do not do that specific thing” and I have no idea how I was supposed to know that, and yet, looking back, the signals were all there. The signals are always there. I have been trained to find signals. I find them in companies I will never meet. I miss them in the person I have lived with for nine years. My wife has started saying things like “you would notice this if I were a stock” and she is correct. She is correct. If she had a ticker I would have already built a 6,000-word model on her. I would know her seasonality. I would know her capex cycle. I would know which quarters historically run hot. Instead I treat her like a private company and I am surprised every time the auditors arrive. I am going to bed now. She said good night in a tone. I do not know what the tone meant. I will find out in the morning. Or I will not. The 10-K of my marriage is filed in real time and I am, as always, three quarters behind.
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This Berkshire buy of Macy’s is so weird. They bought 1% of a $6 billion company, how will this move the needle? Why not just buy back Berkshire stock in size at 1.4 P/B???
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Fortune Fables retweeted
The most expensive parts of your healthcare bill are the things Americans, at large, never learn or hear about. Some accounts on @X are trying to make you angry at your doctor. Not at the system that owns your doctor. Not at the hospital network that sets the prices. Not at the insurer that controls what gets paid. Not at the academic medical center that pays no taxes while dominating the market. Your doctor. Here’s what happens when you actually follow the money. Physician compensation is roughly 8% of total U.S. healthcare spend. CMS publishes this annually. We spend about $17,000 per person. That leaves roughly $15,600 per person elsewhere. Start there. Not with blame. With understanding… Go ahead and ask about price transparency. Hospitals have been legally required to publish negotiated rates since 2021. Most don’t. Enforcement is weak. A functioning market requires prices. Healthcare has been allowed to operate without them. Ask about facility fees. Same physician. Same procedure. Same outcome. But when a health system acquires the practice, the billing entity changes, reimbursement jumps 2–3x, and nothing else changes. Ask about consolidation. Academic medical centers and large nonprofit systems have spent decades acquiring physician groups, outpatient sites, and regional hospital networks. Not because care improved. Because pricing power did. Once they dominate a geography, they don’t compete on price anymore. They set it. Health systems used the facility fee differential as a weapon. They acquired 60% of independent physicians in 16 years. Ask about Certificate of Need laws. Regulations that restrict new hospitals and surgery centers from opening. In practice it means limited new entrants, protected incumbents, and controlled supply. Competition is not absent by accident. It is constrained by design. Ask about Medicare Advantage and system-owned insurance. Many large nonprofit and academic systems now operate Medicare Advantage plans, Medicaid managed care organizations, and narrow-network products including systems that also employ the physicians and own the facilities. They increasingly control both sides of the transaction. Ask about UnitedHealth Group. $370 billion in revenue. Both a payer and the owner of the largest physician network in the country through Optum. Same system. Different roles. Ask about 340B. A drug pricing program designed for safety-net patients. In practice, a revenue stream embedded inside large hospital systems unrelated to patient-level subsidy in most cases. Ask about the organizations that define the rules. CMS payment design. Site-of-care differentials. Reimbursement schedules that reward system ownership over independent practice. None of this is visible to the patient. All of it is visible to the system. Every time, the same answer. “It’s the doctors.” This is not confusion. Confused people ask questions. These accounts don’t ask questions. They deliver verdicts. That is the difference between someone trying to understand a system and someone paid to protect it. Your doctor trained for a decade to keep you alive. That is not an accident. That’s the job…
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Fortune Fables retweeted
🚨𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐓𝐚𝐥𝐤 𝐋𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐋𝐈𝐕𝐄!!!🚨 TODAY... A NEW OFFICIAL A.I. PICK!! The 30-year Wall Street technology and A.I. vet answers Q&A for our global audience of 1O,OOO investors... NOW on Stock Talk Live! tinyurl.com/MoneyMarkLive 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤: Is the market safe now? $GSAT acquired!! A BIG win for $AEHR !! Watt's next for the $WATT rollercoaster ride? How did the $OPTX and $ITMSF earnings call go? MORE A.I. stocks, news, & analysis! Plus, YOUR Q&A! 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝟑𝟎 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐯𝐞𝐭 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐂𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐋𝐈𝐕𝐄 ! youtube.com/@MoneyMarkStocks 🔥𝟏𝟓 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝟒𝟎% 𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬!!🔥 NO picks closed at a loss since MAY... of 2024 ! What do you expect from the guy who literally... * Sold picks to Wall St in the '99 bubble * Was paid by JIM CRAMER'S funds! * Called the rise/fall of MoviePass (& was in the movie!) * Nailed $DWAC before it was  $DJT * Lived one town from Roaring Kitty 😹 $AEHR, $ALAR, $AMPL, $ARAAF, $ATGN, $BCHT, $CTLP, $CURI, $CXDO, $DELL, $DRSHF, $ECOR $GAIA, $GEODF, $GKPRF, $GLD, $IDN, $ITMSF, $IWM, $IZEA, $KRKNF, $MOB, $MU, $NVDA, $OPTX, $SMCI, $SNES, $TPCS, $TSSI, $VTSI, $WATT
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People complaining about the Greg Abel letter are foisting Steve Jobs expectations on Tim Cook.
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Read the Berkshire shareholder letter by Abel this morning, which was fine. But it got me thinking: how much would I pay to read a book on pricing risk by Ajit Jain?
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Claude Opus is such a tease. Asked to analyze the risk factors on a 10K. Amazing output on one prompt, then locked out for 4 hours 🙃
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The sad part of the Buffett letter today was his mention of difficulty reading. Being unable to read for someone like Buffett is like telling a fish it can no longer swim.
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